中东战局升级，金价一跌再跌，原因几何？趋势如何？｜国际

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent decline in gold prices, despite being a traditional safe-haven asset during conflicts, is primarily driven by liquidity issues, inflation expectations, and the relative attractiveness of the US dollar compared to gold [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Recent Decline in Gold Prices - Gold prices fell over 10% in the week of March 16-20, marking the largest weekly decline since 1983, with a cumulative drop of over 14% following the outbreak of the Iran conflict [2]. - The primary reason for this decline is the liquidity crunch, where Middle Eastern countries are selling gold to raise funds due to reduced oil revenues from the conflict [2]. - The escalation of the Iran conflict has led to significant stock market declines globally, prompting leveraged investors to sell gold to meet margin calls, further exacerbating the price drop [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The outbreak of conflict has caused oil prices to rise, leading to inflation expectations, which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates this year [3]. - Prior to the conflict, the market anticipated that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by a total of 50 basis points in 2026, but this outlook has changed due to rising inflation concerns [3]. Group 3: Dollar's Attractiveness as a Safe-Haven Asset - Currently, the US dollar is seen as a more attractive safe-haven asset compared to gold, as oil transactions require dollars, increasing demand for the currency [4]. - The rising oil prices have boosted the dollar index, putting downward pressure on gold prices, which are traditionally viewed as a competitor to the dollar [4]. Group 4: Long-Term Support for Gold Prices - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term logic supporting gold prices remains intact, driven by factors such as increasing US debt, ongoing de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and continuous currency issuance [6]. - Major banks maintain their long-term price forecasts for gold, with estimates ranging from $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6].