达利欧警告：美国若在霍尔木兹海峡遭遇失利，其帝国霸权或将终结

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran will escalate into a decisive confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, which will have implications beyond oil price fluctuations and could determine the future of the US-led global order [1][2]. Summary by Sections Control of the Strait of Hormuz - Dalio emphasizes that approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making control over this passage critical [1]. - He draws a parallel between a potential US defeat in this region and the humiliation faced by the UK during the 1956 Suez Crisis, marking a significant shift in global power dynamics [1][2]. Financial Implications - Dalio highlights that the US, as a hegemonic power with a global reserve currency, is currently in a state of "fiscal overreach." Losing control over the Strait could lead to a collapse of confidence among allies and creditors, a decline in the reserve currency status, and a potential sell-off of debt assets [2][3]. Diplomatic Stalemate - The situation in the Strait remains uncertain, with ongoing blockades and limited passage for vessels. The US administration has faced criticism for not securing military support from allies to ensure safe passage [2][3]. - Dalio notes that any diplomatic agreements to end the conflict are unlikely to be effective, as the motivations of the parties involved are asymmetrical, with Iran viewing the conflict as existential while the US sees it primarily in terms of oil prices and political implications [3][4]. Potential Outcomes - The US is attempting to rally allies for a multinational escort operation to secure the Strait, but responses have been lukewarm. Success in this endeavor could bolster confidence in US leadership, while failure could lead to significant repercussions for US hegemony, including disruptions in trade and capital markets [4][5]. - Dalio concludes that both sides recognize that the ultimate confrontation is yet to come, indicating a prolonged period of tension and uncertainty [5].