国泰海通｜煤炭：煤价淡季不淡止跌回升，全球短期能源切换

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current high market sentiment is driven by geopolitical uncertainties, particularly following the destruction of Qatar's LNG facilities, which is expected to maintain a tight balance in natural gas supply over the next year. This situation is likely to boost international coal demand, accelerating the anticipated "global energy supercycle" over the next 5-10 years [1]. Group 1: Energy Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the domestic off-season is not as weak as expected, potentially leading to an earlier inventory replenishment this summer. The fluctuations in overseas markets will depend on the extent of Indonesia's export reductions and the duration of ongoing conflicts [1]. - The article notes that due to the current global natural gas supply shortage and rising prices, countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are beginning to switch to coal, as evidenced by the increased coal shipments from Australia [1]. - Indonesia, as the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, is crucial in determining the impact of its RKAB policy on global supply. Recent statements from Indonesian officials indicate that export reductions will be considered based on the current global supply-demand situation [1]. Group 2: Coal Price and Demand Forecast - The article forecasts that the bottom price for thermal coal will be above 700 RMB per ton, with an early start to summer inventory replenishment. As of March 20, 2026, the price at Huanghua Port for Q5500 coal was 741 RMB per ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The demand for non-electric coal is expected to rise slightly due to increased chemical sector demand, while electric coal demand may weaken during the off-season. The summer demand is anticipated to be stronger than usual [2]. - For coking coal, the price at Tangshan Port was reported at 1600 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 10 RMB per ton. The article highlights a decrease in iron and steel production, which may impact future demand for coking coal [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of March 16, 2026, the inventory at northern mainstream ports was 33.716 million tons, an increase of 1.739 million tons (5.4%) from the previous week, while southern port inventory decreased by 0.7% [3]. - The offshore price for Q5500 coal at Newcastle, Australia, was reported at 86 USD per ton, down 2 USD per ton (2.5%) from the previous week [3].