城堡证券警示：从通胀冲击到经济危机，市场开始定价“需求萎缩”

Core Viewpoint - The market is shifting towards a "demand contraction" mode, influenced by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts and their impact on global economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Middle East conflict is transitioning to a new phase, with investors focusing on the economic growth impact rather than initial inflation shocks [3]. - Economic activity is slowing down, and the trend of "demand contraction" may support long-term inflation-adjusted bonds [3]. - The recent comments from President Trump regarding delaying strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure have led to a rise in stock and bond markets, while oil and the dollar have declined [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Inflation - Since the outbreak of the war in late February, bond yields in major markets have surged as investors anticipate central banks may need to raise rates to combat inflation driven by rising energy costs [4]. - The dollar has strengthened significantly due to safe-haven demand [4]. - Once short-term interest rates stabilize, actual long-term rates (adjusted for inflation) are expected to "level off" as investors shift focus to the economic damage caused by the conflict [4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Concerns - The conflict is at a crossroads, with potential escalation or ceasefire, both of which would negatively impact economic growth [5]. - Ongoing supply shocks are expected to severely affect the already fragile global economy, with consumers having depleted excess savings and a weaker labor market compared to the energy shock period in 2022 [5]. - If economic growth shows resilience, central banks may tighten monetary policy to curb inflation, which could ultimately pressure economic activity [5]. Group 4: Emerging Market Vulnerabilities - Developing countries, particularly energy-importing nations, are especially vulnerable to these economic pressures [5]. - Currency depreciation may force central banks to raise interest rates, exacerbating domestic economic slowdowns [5]. - Weakness in emerging market assets could hinder global economic growth while simultaneously strengthening the dollar and intensifying the monetary tightening cycle [5]. Group 5: Supply Chain Risks - The market may be underestimating the scale of supply disruptions, with shortages spreading from oil to liquefied natural gas, helium, and fertilizers, increasing the risk of widespread supply constraints [5][6].