黄金已经跌出“黄金坑”？机构：市场情绪已接近极端水平 高概率反弹机会已现

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Middle East conflict has significantly impacted global markets, leading to a notable decline in gold prices. However, some institutions believe that market sentiment is nearing extreme levels, which may provide conditions for a rebound in the future [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, gold and related assets have faced pressure, with spot gold down approximately 13% this month, potentially marking its worst monthly performance since October 2008 [3]. - The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US) ETF has decreased by about 14.6% this month, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US) has seen a more significant drop of around 25% [3]. - Gold prices have retreated about 18.5% from their 52-week high, influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in interest rate expectations [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - SentimenTrader analysts indicate that market sentiment has entered an "extremely pessimistic" zone, which historically has been a precursor to rebounds. When over 80% of traders in the GLD-related market maintain a pessimistic outlook for two consecutive weeks, the probability of a gold rebound within the next 12 months is approximately 89%, with a median return exceeding 10% [3]. - The proportion of gold mining stocks in a technical bear market has risen to about 95%, indicating a significant "exhaustion" in market breadth [3]. - SentimenTrader believes that gold currently possesses "high probability, asymmetric return" investment value, especially as GLD remains above its 200-day moving average, increasing the attractiveness of long positions over the next 3 to 12 months [4].