【老铺黄金（6181.HK）】26Q1业绩表现超预期，古法金龙头优势持续显著——2025年及2026Q1业绩点评（姜浩/朱洁宇/吴子倩）

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laopu Gold, reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 221.0% in revenue and 230.5% in net profit, exceeding market expectations for Q1 2026 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2025, Laopu Gold achieved a revenue of 27.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 5.03 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 234.9% [4]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 11.95 yuan per share, alongside an interim dividend of 9.59 yuan per share, resulting in a cumulative payout ratio of 76.0% for 2025 [4]. - For Q1 2026, the expected revenue is between 16.5 billion to 17.5 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 3.6 billion to 3.8 billion yuan, indicating a net profit margin of 21.7% to 21.8% [4]. Product and Channel Performance - In terms of product categories, gold products accounted for 99.9% of revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 221.0%, while other products and services contributed 0.1% with a growth of 180.0% [5]. - The online sales channel showed remarkable performance, with a revenue growth of 341.3% year-on-year, while offline sales grew by 204.0% [5]. - The company’s revenue from domestic and overseas markets was 85.6% and 14.4%, respectively, with overseas revenue growing by 361.0% [5]. Cost and Inventory Management - The gross profit margin for 2025 decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 37.6%, primarily due to rising gold prices [7]. - The expense ratio decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 14.1%, attributed to rapid revenue growth and scale effects [7]. - Inventory at the end of 2025 increased by 292.5% to 16.04 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days rising to 216 days, indicating a need to meet increased demand during peak seasons [7]. Cash Flow Analysis - The operating net cash flow for 2025 showed a net outflow of 6.85 billion yuan, compared to a net outflow of 1.23 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rapid sales growth and significant inventory increases [7].