7张图看懂：黄金是否回调到位？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diminishing safe-haven appeal of gold amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, highlighting the contrasting performance of oil and gold prices during this geopolitical turmoil [2]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold's Diminished Safe-Haven Status - The US-Iran conflict has reached a stalemate, limiting the intensity and scope of the conflict, which has reduced the upward momentum for gold prices [2]. - The "see-saw effect" between oil and gold prices is evident, where rising oil prices due to supply shocks lead to increased inflation concerns, subsequently diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which negatively impacts gold prices [6]. Group 2: Limited Downside for Gold - The trading dynamics suggest that when the implied volatility (IV) of gold exceeds 30%, the maximum short-term drawdown is typically around 20%-25%. Recent data indicates that gold's IV reached 31%, with a maximum drawdown of 24.4% observed [8]. - The policy environment indicates that significant further declines in gold prices below $4,000 per ounce would require a sustained increase in interest rate hike expectations, which are currently not anticipated by the market [10]. Group 3: Weak Foundations for Short-Term Gold Rebound - Current oil supply shocks are identified as a major risk factor, with recent events causing Brent crude oil prices to approach $120 per barrel, leading to a rapid decline in gold prices from over $5,000 per ounce to around $4,500 [13]. - Efforts by the US to stabilize oil prices through the easing of sanctions on Iranian oil are deemed insufficient, as the release of 140 million barrels would only cover global consumption for 1-2 days [17]. - The low cost of blocking the Strait of Hormuz by Iran poses a challenge for restoring oil flow to pre-conflict levels, complicating the outlook for gold prices amid persistent inflation concerns [19].