风险月报 | 权益市场情绪温和回升，通胀预期升温加剧债市曲线陡峭化

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has shown slight improvement, with macroeconomic and fiscal data indicating marginal recovery, leading to a mixed valuation structure across different sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Assessment - The Zhongtai Asset Management risk system score for the CSI 300 index is 53.98, up from 50.78 last month, indicating a slight recovery in market expectations and sentiment [2]. - The CSI 300 valuation remains stable at 61.71, consistent with the reasonable range observed over the past year, with significant valuation differentiation among sectors [2]. - The market expectation score has increased to 62.00 from 60.00, reflecting improved fiscal revenue and expenditure dynamics [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Among the 28 first-level industries, 12 sectors, including chemicals, steel, and electronics, have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, while food and beverage, and non-bank financial sectors are below the historical 10th percentile [2]. - The market sentiment score has risen to 42.25 from 35.21, indicating a recovery from low levels to a neutral stance, with mixed performance across various indicators [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - In the first two months of 2026, industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment increased by 1.8%, contrasting with a decline of 3.8% for the previous year [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in nearly three years, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown positive month-on-month growth for five consecutive months [8]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity remains ample, with a notable shift towards more precise operations [10][11]. - The total social financing scale for February was 2.39 trillion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 9.6 trillion yuan in the first two months, indicating improved cash flow and funding activation [10].