路透：交易员押注美联储加息之际，分析师“唱反调”：年内至少降息一次，最早在9月！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between economists' expectations and market traders' actions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly in light of rising inflation pressures due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The swap market currently implies a greater than 50% probability of interest rate hikes this year, while a Reuters survey of 82 economists shows that nearly three-quarters expect the Federal Reserve will not lower rates before September [1][4]. - Economists are divided on the timing of potential rate cuts, with 37 expecting two cuts, 28 expecting one cut, 13 expecting no changes, and 4 expecting three cuts by the end of the year [6][10]. - A significant number of economists (61 out of 82) anticipate that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold in the next quarter, a shift from earlier expectations of a rate cut by June [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market traders are aggressively betting on interest rate hikes, with the implied rate increase in the swap market rising to 13 basis points before October, reflecting a more hawkish stance compared to economists [7][8]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is experiencing a bear flattening, indicating that traders are pricing in a tightening of monetary policy despite the Federal Reserve's current stance [7][8]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Economists have significantly raised their inflation forecasts, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index expected to rise by 3.3%, 3.1%, and 2.9% in the second, third, and fourth quarters, respectively, which is about 50 basis points higher than previous predictions [10]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, are exacerbating inflation concerns, leading to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to act [11].