日本光刻机巨头，崩了

Core Viewpoint - Nikon, a century-old optical giant in Japan, is facing unprecedented challenges, reporting a record loss of 85 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to its struggling 3D printing business and a drastic decline in its lithography machine sales, which totaled only 9 units in the past six months compared to ASML's 160 units sold [5][8][49]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Position - In the 1980s, Nikon was at the pinnacle of precision manufacturing, dominating the global market in both professional cameras and semiconductor lithography machines [13][14]. - Nikon's lithography machines were considered essential for the semiconductor industry, with major companies like Intel and IBM vying for access to its technology [15][16]. - At its peak, Nikon held a significant market share in lithography machines, akin to ASML's current dominance [17]. Group 2: Key Decisions and Strategic Missteps - A pivotal moment occurred in 2002 when TSMC's Lin Benshan proposed a revolutionary immersion lithography concept, which Nikon's executives rejected due to concerns over potential risks and previous investments in dry lithography technology [22][25]. - Nikon's refusal to adopt the immersion technology allowed ASML to capitalize on the idea, leading to the successful launch of immersion lithography machines in 2004, which significantly eroded Nikon's market share [30][32]. Group 3: The EUV Gamble and Its Consequences - Following the setback with immersion technology, Nikon shifted its focus to developing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, investing over 100 billion yen in the project, but ultimately failed to commercialize a viable product [36][43]. - The Japanese government supported Nikon's EUV efforts, but the exclusion from key technology alliances and the inability to access critical American technology hindered progress [42][44]. - Nikon's decision to pursue a fully self-reliant development strategy resulted in a lack of collaboration and ultimately led to the termination of the EUV project [45]. Group 4: Current Situation and Future Outlook - Nikon's recent operational decisions, including the closure of its Yokohama factory, reflect a significant contraction in its lithography business, with the company struggling to compete against ASML and emerging Chinese competitors [49]. - The departure of Nikon's long-time leader, Masahiro Matsumoto, symbolizes the end of an era for Japanese lithography technology, highlighting the consequences of arrogance and insularity in the face of rapid technological advancement [48][50].