每周推荐 | 不降息或是美联储的“底线”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, suggesting that not lowering rates may be the "bottom line" for the Fed amid rising inflation concerns driven by oil prices and geopolitical tensions [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market is speculating on a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2026, although this remains a low-probability event due to insufficient conditions for a "stagflation" scenario similar to the 1970s [2]. - The Fed's recent hawkish stance aligns with market expectations, indicating that maintaining current interest rates may be prioritized to manage inflation pressures from oil supply shocks [3][7]. Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Impact - Rising oil prices since the escalation of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts have raised concerns about stagflation, with the potential for a recession in the U.S. economy if these tensions escalate further [3]. - A peak in oil prices could serve as a precursor for the Fed to consider lowering interest rates, highlighting the interconnectedness of oil prices, financial conditions, and economic performance [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Data - Recent data shows that U.S. oil prices continue to rise, while expectations for Fed rate cuts have significantly decreased, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [11]. - Industrial enterprise profits in the U.S. showed a notable increase, with cumulative revenue growth of 5.3% year-on-year and profit growth of 15.2% for January-February 2026, indicating a strong start to the year for industrial sectors [12].