每周推荐 | 不降息或是美联储的“底线”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation, focusing on the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and the implications of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market is speculating on a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2026, but this remains a low-probability event due to insufficient conditions for a "stagflation" scenario similar to the 1970s [2]. - The Federal Reserve's current policy is to maintain interest rates, with "not lowering rates" being viewed as a baseline, while monitoring the negative feedback from tightening financial conditions [7]. Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Impact - Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts, could lead to a temporary stagflation, but a recession is more likely for the U.S. economy if these tensions escalate [3]. - A peak in oil prices may serve as a precursor for the return of interest rate cut expectations, indicating that the Fed may choose to remain unchanged in its policy until necessary adjustments are warranted [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The article highlights that the market is closely watching the Middle East situation, as easing tensions could contribute to stabilizing oil prices, which in turn affects financial and economic conditions [4]. - Recent data shows that U.S. industrial enterprises reported a cumulative revenue growth of 5.3% year-on-year and a profit increase of 15.2% for January-February 2026, indicating a strong start to the year [12].