热点思考 | 特朗普还能如何压制油价？—“美国中选”系列之二（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The article discusses the limited effectiveness of traditional tools used by the Trump administration to control rising oil prices, such as releasing strategic reserves and easing sanctions, which have not significantly impacted the market [1][5][12] - Geopolitical risk has contributed 65% to the recent oil price increase, with Brent crude prices reaching $110.7, indicating that even with supply-demand adjustments, prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels [1][18][64] - Current measures have led to a more fragmented global oil market, with Asia experiencing the most pressure, Europe in the middle, and America having a relative buffer [2][5][65] Group 2 - Future potential measures by the U.S. government may include export controls, futures market interventions, and tax reductions, but these could further increase international oil prices rather than decrease them [3][23][66] - If the U.S. Treasury intervenes in the oil futures market, it would require significant capital and could face high political costs, as the necessary short positions would need to be substantial to have a visible impact [29][30][66] - Direct consumer interventions, such as tax cuts and regulatory relaxations, may be considered if oil prices continue to rise uncontrollably, with potential measures including suspending federal fuel taxes and relaxing summer gasoline formulation restrictions [36][66] Group 3 - The likelihood of Trump resorting to TACO (Temporary Action for Commodity Oil) is high, as the downward pressure on oil risk premiums faces multiple challenges, including negotiation uncertainties and supply recovery delays [4][42][67] - The article presents a TACO probability index, which indicates a 95% chance of Trump making concessions in response to rising oil prices, reflecting historical patterns of his policy adjustments [4][53][67] - Future oil prices are projected to remain above pre-conflict levels but below peak levels, with Brent crude expected to hover around $85 in the fourth quarter [4][47][67]