国际油价巨震，可能影响外卖

Group 1 - The core principle is that industries with a higher proportion of oil-related costs in their value chain are more quickly and severely affected by fluctuations in oil prices [2] - The aviation industry is a prime example, with fuel costs accounting for 20% to 40% of total costs, leading to significant price increases in international routes following the Middle East conflict [2][5] - Domestic airlines are expected to raise fuel surcharges starting in April, although the impact on domestic routes is slightly delayed due to sufficient fuel reserves [2] Group 2 - Oil price fluctuations have a direct impact on transportation costs, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 2205 yuan and 2120 yuan per ton, respectively, as of March 23 [5] - China's energy self-sufficiency rate is around 80%, which is relatively high compared to Japan and South Korea, indicating a lower energy risk [5][6] - As of early 2026, China's oil reserves are estimated at 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrels, sufficient to meet 110 to 180 days of consumption, contributing to market stability despite price increases [7][9] Group 3 - The international fuel surcharge for airlines is raised before domestic routes due to the need for refueling in countries with less stable reserves [8] - The rise of electric vehicles is expected to reduce oil dependency, with projections indicating that by the end of 2025, there will be 43.97 million electric vehicles in China [8][11] - China's energy and chemical industry is the largest and most comprehensive globally, providing a strong foundation for energy security [11][13] Group 4 - The potential for global inflation due to sustained conflicts in the Middle East could impact food prices, particularly for cooking oils, which are heavily influenced by oil prices [18][20] - China imports about 80% of its soybeans, with rising oil prices potentially increasing soybean production costs by over 15% [25][26] - China's soybean production has remained high, with self-sufficiency gradually improving, indicating resilience against international price fluctuations [27][29]