热点思考 | 特朗普还能如何压制油价？—“美国中选”系列之二（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the limited effectiveness of traditional tools used by the Trump administration to control rising oil prices and explores potential future measures, including the likelihood of a return to TACO (Temporary Action for Commodity Oil) as a high-probability option due to ongoing market and inflation pressures. Group 1: Current Measures and Their Effectiveness - The U.S. government has implemented measures such as releasing oil reserves and easing sanctions, but these have had limited impact on controlling oil prices. Geopolitical risk has contributed 65% to the recent price increase, with a significant portion attributed to supply-demand factors [1][5][18]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries released 400 million barrels of oil, averaging an increase of 3.33 million barrels per day, but these measures are insufficient to fully suppress risk premiums [1][12][64]. Group 2: Future Measures and Their Implications - Potential future measures by the U.S. government may include export controls, futures market interventions, and tax reductions. However, restricting oil exports could paradoxically increase international oil prices due to reduced global supply [3][23][66]. - If the U.S. Treasury engages in direct trading of oil futures, it could create short-term price impacts, but the financial constraints and political costs are significant. A substantial short position would require a nominal scale of 100,000 to 150,000 contracts, equivalent to 100 to 150 million barrels of oil [3][29][30][66]. Group 3: Likelihood of TACO Reimplementation - The likelihood of TACO being reimplemented is high due to limited downward pressure on oil risk premiums. Factors such as potential negotiation setbacks and delays in restoring physical oil supply contribute to this scenario [4][42][67]. - The TACO probability index, which has historically predicted key concessions by the Trump administration, currently stands at 95%, indicating a significant chance of further concessions to manage oil prices [4][53][67].