Datayes·2026-03-29 15:34Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a resurgence in sectors such as energy and chemicals due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global supply chains and commodity prices [1][7]. Geopolitical Impact - The probability of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed until mid-2026 is estimated at 58%, with a 63% chance of it being open by July 2026 according to predictive models [7]. - A closure of the Strait could lead to a nearly 20% reduction in oil supply, a 20% decrease in LNG supply, a 30% drop in urea, and significant reductions in sulfur and phosphate supplies [7]. Market Reactions - The article highlights that the current geopolitical climate is likely to benefit energy and chemical sectors, suggesting a second wave of growth for these industries [1]. - The financial markets are experiencing pressure, with indicators suggesting that if oil prices rise or the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaches 4.5%, it could trigger significant market reactions [10]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised to focus on traditional energy and energy alternatives, particularly those with price transmission capabilities, such as power equipment and coal [20]. - The article suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a second bottoming out in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors that can withstand external shocks [12][13]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases, particularly for lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate, driven by supply and demand dynamics [22]. - The article notes that the Chinese innovative drug sector has seen significant growth, with over $60 billion in authorized transactions in the first quarter of the year, indicating a strong market for domestic pharmaceutical innovations [25].