铝 | 中东两大铝企遭袭，铝供应再遭冲击

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran has significantly impacted aluminum supply, with recent missile and drone attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain potentially leading to further supply constraints [2] Group 1: Impact of Attacks on Aluminum Supply - The attacked plants, Emirates Global Aluminium's Tawi'lah facility and Bahrain Aluminium, have a combined annual capacity of approximately 3.9% of global aluminum production, with capacities of 1.52 million tons and 1.62 million tons respectively [2] - If these facilities are severely damaged, the recovery time could extend to several years, leading to a notable short-term reduction in supply [2] Group 2: Regional and Global Supply Chain Risks - The ongoing conflict has lasted for over a month, with no signs of de-escalation, which may continue to affect the aluminum supply chain in the Middle East and globally [2] - Increased production safety risks could lead to wider shutdowns in the region, as energy supply disruptions may cause instability in power supply to aluminum smelters, increasing the likelihood of accidents [2] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt both raw material imports and product exports, with the region's alumina import dependency at 68%, raising the possibility of reduced aluminum production and plant shutdowns [2][3] Group 3: European Market Implications - European energy prices have surged, with natural gas prices increasing by 80% since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, which could lead to further increases in electricity prices that are heavily influenced by gas costs [3] - The potential for aluminum production cuts or shutdowns in Europe is heightened due to these energy price pressures [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The widening aluminum supply-demand gap, coupled with the vulnerabilities introduced by the U.S.-Iran conflict and supportive global fiscal and monetary policies, suggests that aluminum prices may reach new highs [3] - The low-cost environment may further expand profit margins per ton of aluminum [3]