国泰海通｜宏观：不确定性仍存：油价再度走高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, particularly between the US, Israel, and Iran, which shows no signs of easing, leading to increased uncertainty in the region [1] - Oil prices have risen again, putting pressure on global stock markets, while the US dollar has strengthened and the Japanese yen continues to depreciate [1] - Concerns over tightening monetary policies from major central banks have increased, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance on inflation expectations, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a more hawkish tone regarding rising energy prices [1] Group 2 - In the US, the job market remains stable, with initial jobless claims steady and continuing claims decreasing [1] - As of March 21, the 10-year US Treasury real interest rates have risen significantly due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, while the 10-year inflation expectations remain relatively stable [1] - In Europe, the consumer confidence index has weakened significantly, reaching a new low since October 2023, likely influenced by the rising energy prices stemming from the military conflict [2]