国内高频 | 生产走势分化（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, construction, and demand in China, highlighting the recovery in certain sectors while noting weaknesses in others. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate remains stable, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year stability at 1.5% [2] - Steel apparent consumption increased by 2.2% week-on-week but saw a year-on-year decline of 0.9 percentage points to 4.1% [2] - Steel social inventory decreased by 1.7% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Construction Industry - Cement production and demand have shown signs of recovery, with a week-on-week increase in grinding operating rate of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points to 14.1% [24] - Cement shipment rate increased by 7.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [24] - Cement inventory ratio increased by 0.9% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points to 7.3% [24] Group 3: Demand Trends - National commodity housing transactions have improved, with a week-on-week increase of 14.8% in average daily transaction area for 30 major cities, and a year-on-year increase to 25.5% [48] - The average transaction area for first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 9.1%, 15.5%, and 20.7% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 25.3%, 63%, and 33% [48] - Freight volume remains resilient, with railway freight volume and highway truck traffic showing year-on-year declines of 3.2% and 1.2% respectively [60] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruits showing week-on-week declines of 1.3%, 0.9%, and 0.7% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.6% [102] - The overall industrial product price index decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices increasing by 1.2% and metal prices decreasing by 0.6% [114]