沪铝：中东两座铝厂被炸，铝成了最坚挺的金属？

Core Viewpoint - The recent missile and drone attacks on aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE have significantly impacted global aluminum supply, shifting the situation from logistical disruptions to a dual pressure of capacity damage and raw material chain limitations [4][39]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On March 28, 2026, the Askar aluminum plant in Bahrain and the Al Taweelah aluminum plant in the UAE were attacked, with respective annual capacities of 1.6 million tons and 1.5 million tons [4][8]. - The Al Taweelah complex has reported severe damage, likely indicating a scenario of substantial operational disruption [39]. Group 2: Impact Scenarios - Three scenarios were analyzed regarding the potential impact on production: - Scenario A: Minor damage to auxiliary equipment, leading to a production decrease of 112,500 tons, shifting global supply from a surplus of 170,000 tons to a surplus of 50,000 tons [6][34]. - Scenario B: Damage to core electrical systems, resulting in a production decrease of 750,000 tons, potentially extending the recovery period to 6-12 months [29][39]. - Scenario C: Significant damage to electrolytic cells, leading to a production decrease of 2.3 million tons, with a shift from a surplus to a shortage of 2.13 million tons [6][34]. Group 3: Regional Aluminum Industry Context - In 2025, the Middle East's six countries produced 6.927 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, accounting for approximately 9.25% of global production and 23.4% of non-Chinese production [9]. - The region's aluminum industry benefits from energy and port advantages, with significant reliance on imports of alumina and bauxite through the Strait of Hormuz [9]. Group 4: Market Implications - The attacks are expected to provide stronger support for aluminum prices, with a potential divergence in the domestic and international aluminum markets, characterized by tight external conditions and looser internal conditions [39]. - The aluminum market will need to closely monitor the actual production disruptions resulting from the attacks [39].