鲍威尔称美联储可忽略油价冲击，但警告耐心有限

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is inclined to maintain interest rates unchanged despite energy shocks from the Iran conflict, while warning that if inflation expectations shift, action may be necessary [2][3][4]. Monetary Policy Stance - Powell indicated that the current monetary policy is in a favorable position, suggesting that it is premature to assess the economic impact of the Iran conflict [2][4]. - He emphasized that energy price shocks are often temporary and that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is slow, making it difficult to respond in real-time to supply-side price pressures [4][6]. - The Federal Reserve's current federal funds rate remains unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [6]. Inflation Expectations - Powell noted that inflation expectations are currently well-anchored but are being closely monitored, with a commitment to bring inflation back to the 2% target [7]. - Current inflation is around 3%, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.5 to 1 percentage point to this rate [7]. Quantitative Easing (QE) Support - Powell expressed clear support for QE, stating that purchasing long-term assets can lower interest rates and support economic activity [8]. Private Credit Market - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the private credit market, which has shown signs of turbulence, but Powell believes this is a correction rather than a systemic event [10]. Impact of AI on Employment - Powell acknowledged that AI will have a profound and irreversible impact on the job market, with large companies planning to automate many backend and middle management positions [11][12]. - He compared the current situation to the invention of the loom, suggesting that while some jobs may be lost, productivity and living standards will ultimately improve [12]. Federal Reserve Independence - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence and sticking to its core mission, especially in light of potential pressures from the administration [16]. Context of Powell's Remarks - The remarks were made during a period of heightened scrutiny for Powell, with ongoing investigations and his term set to expire on May 15 [18].