金价即将回稳上涨？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent upward trend in gold prices, attributing it to geopolitical tensions and changing market perceptions regarding inflation and Federal Reserve policies [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices began to stabilize and rise from March 27, following a period of pressure due to military actions in the Middle East [2]. - Initial declines in gold prices were driven by liquidity issues, including margin calls and the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven compared to gold [2]. - As the expectation of prolonged conflict in the Middle East grows, the market is shifting towards viewing gold as a "ultimate safe haven" asset [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [2]. - The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy due to prolonged conflict could further support gold prices [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies - The market previously misjudged the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which requires specific economic conditions to be met [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a series of interest rate hikes starting in March 2022, aimed to combat high inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 [3]. - In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite energy shocks from the Middle East, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, which may lead the market to price in potential rate cuts this year, providing further support for gold [4].