数据点评 | 为何3月PMI大幅反弹？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in the March PMI is attributed to the fading effects of the Spring Festival and accelerated demand recovery [3][9]. Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4% in March, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a recovery post-Spring Festival [2][3]. - The new orders index increased by 3 percentage points to 51.6%, indicating stronger demand recovery compared to previous years [3][16]. - The production orders index only rose by 1.8 percentage points to 51.4%, suggesting slower recovery in production due to delayed resumption of work [3][16]. Industry Analysis - The consumer goods sector saw a larger PMI increase of 2 percentage points to 50.8%, indicating a faster demand recovery compared to other sectors [4][20]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs increased by 1.7 and 0.6 percentage points to 51.5% and 52.1%, respectively, but showed weaker production performance [4][21]. Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, with the construction sector's PMI increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 49.3%, which is lower than the previous year's recovery rate [4][24]. - The construction project resumption rate was 62%, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period in 2025, indicating slower recovery in the sector [4][24]. Future Outlook - The focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is expected to enhance the recovery of domestic demand, which may outpace external demand [5][34]. - However, rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks could negatively impact manufacturing profitability, with a transmission lag of about 3-4 months [5][34]. Regular Tracking - The manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, with the new orders index rising significantly [6][43]. - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, but the new orders index fell by 0.4 percentage points to 45.3% [6][52]. - The construction sector's new orders index improved marginally by 1.3 percentage points to 43.5% [6][54].