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航空板块2025年中期策略:收入企稳成本下降,行业逐渐迎来业绩拐点
2025-06-12 15:07
Summary of Airline Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The airline sector is expected to see a significant increase in total passenger volume in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.9% compared to 2023 and a 10.6% increase compared to 2019 [4][11] - Despite the increase in passenger volume, ticket prices have experienced a substantial decline, with major airlines reporting a double-digit percentage drop in ticket prices for 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 [4][11] - The business travel segment is under pressure, leading to a decline in ticket prices, while leisure travel demand has shown strong recovery, particularly during the May Day holiday [4][11] Key Insights - The airline industry is approaching a performance turning point in 2025, driven by declining oil prices and long-term supply-demand optimization [2][13] - The supply side of the airline industry is expected to remain tight due to issues with Pratt & Whitney engines, leading to an increased number of grounded aircraft, estimated at 180-200, which represents about 4%-5% of total capacity [5][13] - A decrease in oil prices significantly supports airline profitability, with a 1% drop in oil prices potentially reducing costs for major airlines by approximately 400-500 million yuan [6][7] Market Dynamics - The implementation of visa-free policies is expected to rapidly boost the inbound tourism market, with inbound travel data for 2024 nearing 2019 levels and likely surpassing it in 2025 [10][11] - Airlines are actively addressing pricing issues with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs), which is expected to create a positive cycle for ticket prices and sales, benefiting revenue management [9][13] Investment Recommendations - Key airlines to watch include China National Aviation Holding (Air China), China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, as they are poised to benefit from the overall recovery of the industry [3][8][14] - The airline sector is seen as having sufficient upward catalysts, making it a recommended area for investment [14] Additional Considerations - The Japanese tourism strategy serves as a model for China, highlighting the potential for significant growth in inbound tourism through international route promotion and visa facilitation [12] - The airline industry is facing a long-term supply-demand optimization trend, with 2025 being a critical year for performance recovery [13]
山东航空学院乘务学院:“四抓四强” 打造全生命周期就业指导服务体系
Zhong Guo Min Hang Wang· 2025-06-11 08:35
《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者许晓泓 通讯员边小玲、张凤英、张智超、徐志涛、郑泽玉、孙英 华、赵越 报道:就业是民生之本,更是高校人才培养的重要检验环节。山东航空学院乘务学院坚持把 毕业生就业工作摆在突出位置,通过"四抓四强",从组织领导、全员协同、政策宣传、指导服务多维度 精准发力,构建起全生命周期就业指导服务体系,为促进毕业生高质量就业,交出了一份亮眼的"就业 答卷"。 抓政策宣传 强就业意识 点亮就业观念 "指明灯" 为帮助学生树立正确的就业观念,乘务学院多渠道、多形式开展就业政策宣传活动。通过举办"就业政 策解读会""职业素养培训会"等,邀请行业专家、企业人力资源负责人详细解读航空行业就业政策、规 划职业发展路径、传授职业素养提升秘籍;精心打造"师哥师姐开讲啦"成长经验分享会品牌活动,邀请 已在岗位上取得优异成绩的校友重返校园,用亲身经历讲述职业发展历程,分享职场成长心得;依托学 院官网、微信公众号等新媒体平台,定期推送"就业政策早知道"系列推文,以通俗易懂的语言和生动形 象的案例普及就业政策知识。通过形式多样的活动,有效提升了学生对就业政策的知晓度和认同感,帮 助学生树立起正确的职业观和就业观,从 ...
中泰证券:新飞机引进或放缓 三重利好下航司有望迎来业绩拐点
智通财经网· 2025-06-11 08:33
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the decline in supply growth presents an opportunity for improvement in the aviation industry, with expectations of a performance turning point for airlines due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, stable ticket prices, and high passenger load factors [1] Supply Side Analysis - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to slow down due to factors such as a slow recovery of the supply chain, retirement of old aircraft, insufficient new orders, and uncertainties in China-US relations. The projected supply growth rates (ASK) for the industry from 2025 to 2027 are 6.32%, 4.56%, and 2.26% respectively [1] - Boeing and Airbus are facing delivery delays, with 2024 deliveries expected to be 766 and 348 aircraft respectively, which do not return to pre-pandemic levels. The delivery progress for the first four months of 2025 is also lagging behind annual plans [1][2] - The shortage of engines is significantly constraining deliveries, with only 1,407 LEAP engines expected to be delivered in 2024, supporting only 700 new narrow-body aircraft, which is well below the pre-pandemic demand [1] Domestic Aircraft Production - The C909 aircraft is steadily increasing its production capacity, with a projected delivery of 35 units in 2024, while the C919 is expected to take longer to ramp up, with only 16 units delivered by the end of 2024 [2] - There are 195 total orders for the C909 and 330 confirmed orders for the C919, with significant deliveries planned from 2024 to 2031 [2] Inventory Perspective - The supply chain crisis persists, and the retirement of aircraft is expected to accelerate, with projected retirements of 134, 143, and 152 aircraft from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The utilization of wide-body aircraft remains low, with a significant shift in capacity allocation towards domestic routes, which may impact overall efficiency [3] Engine Issues - The PW1100 engine is facing significant operational disruptions due to contamination risks, leading to large-scale recalls and repairs, while the LEAP engine is experiencing durability issues that require upgrades [4] - The impact of these engine issues is expected to be more pronounced for the PW1100, with a notable increase in grounded aircraft compared to previous years [4]
运营20多年,又一家航司停运!
第一财经· 2025-06-11 06:55
2025.06. 11 本文字数:1653,阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 疫情后,仍有航空公司没能逃过关停的命运。 6月11日,澳航集团宣布,将关闭旗下低成本子公司捷星亚洲航空,公司的航班将陆续减少,并在7 月31日正式结束营业。 20年廉航为何停运 2004年成立的捷星亚洲定位低成本航空,航线网络主要覆盖从新加坡出发的五小时以内航程,包括 到中国的无锡等城市。 对于受影响客户,澳航集团称将提供全额退款并协助改签其他航班;员工则将获得裁员福利及支持服 务,且澳航正积极为他们在集团内外寻找新职位。 澳航集团表示,关闭捷星亚洲航空主要是由于供应商成本上升、机场费用上涨,以及区域内的航空公 司竞争加剧。 "来自部分供应商的成本涨幅高达200%,这严重影响了捷星亚洲航空的成本结构。"集团首席执行官 瓦妮莎·哈德森(Vanessa Hudson)表示。 捷星亚洲航空的主运营基地位于新加坡,由Newstar Holdings控股公司管理,新加坡Westbrook Investments投资公司持有51%的股权,澳航集团持有剩下的49%股权。 此外,捷星亚洲航空还面临来自东南亚地区其他低成本航空公司的激烈 ...
东兴改革精选混合基金变更基金经理 跑输业绩比较基准41.99个百分点
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 06:54
Core Viewpoint - Dongxing Fund announced the resignation of fund manager Kang Kai for personal reasons, with Sun Jiqing taking over the Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund [2][3] Fund Manager Transition - Kang Kai resigned on June 6, 2025, and Sun Jiqing, the current head of the research department, has taken over the fund [3] - Sun Jiqing previously managed the Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund from September 8, 2015, to June 1, 2024, and has not managed any equity products in the past year [3] Fund Performance - The Dongxing Reform Selected Mixed Fund was established on September 8, 2015, and has seen a net value decline of 21% since inception, a 29.08% decline over the past three years, a 0.88% decline over the past year, and a 2.07% increase over the past six months [3][4] - As of March 31, 2025, the fund's net asset value had decreased significantly from an initial subscription amount of approximately 466 million to about 1.7348 million, with C-class shares valued at only 52,300 [4] Investment Strategy - The fund focuses on industries with supply-side clearing or significant capacity constraints, selecting companies with low capital expenditure or those experiencing capacity clearing, which are expected to have high upside potential during industry reversals [5] - The current investment environment suggests that gold is a relatively stable asset, while the long-term supply constraints for copper and aluminum are unlikely to change, indicating potential investment opportunities following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5]
真火淬炼应急硬功 春秋航空实战演练筑牢安全防线
Zhong Guo Min Hang Wang· 2025-06-11 05:52
(春秋航空供图) 本次真火实训严格对标民航局《"十四五"平安民航建设工作实施意见》和《关于加强客舱锂电池失火冒 烟风险管控的通知》要求,聚焦行业安全痛点。演练逼真模拟驾驶舱EFB设备、客舱锂电池(充电宝) 等起火冒烟场景,重点围绕机组协作展开,设置水源传递接力、驾驶舱与客舱通讯中断应急处置、伤员 战术救护(TECC)、机载海伦灭火器材使用等环节科目,打造沉浸式训练体验。 演练数据显示,从发现火情冒烟到完成初次灭火仅耗时6秒。参与演练的灭火组、隔离组、通讯组职责 分工明确,不仅使用真实海伦灭火器材高效扑灭火情,而且推动"三查一控"机制高效落地,形成立体化 安全防护网。驾驶舱与客舱通过"信息同步机制"实现零延迟联动处置,机组资源管理(CRM)效能显 著。安全员动态调整站位,重点覆盖起火点前后高风险区域,同步协助乘务组维护客舱秩序,并在事后 排查安保威胁。 春秋航空表示,将继续由"模拟演练"向"实战淬炼"转型,把真火实训纳入常态化安全培训体系,在潜移 默化中增强机组的心理抗压能力。随着平安民航建设的纵深推进,此类沉浸式训练将为行业处置新型风 险积累宝贵经验,切实筑牢航空安全底线。(编辑:陈虹莹 校对:许浩存 审核: ...
又一家航司停运!中外低成本航空为何冰火两重天
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 05:36
Group 1 - Jetstar Asia Airlines, a low-cost carrier, will cease operations on July 31, 2023, due to rising supplier costs, increased airport fees, and intensified competition in the region [1][3][5] - The airline, established in 2004, primarily operated routes within five hours from Singapore, including destinations in China [3] - The Australian airline group will refund affected customers and provide support for employees, while reallocating Jetstar Asia's 13 Airbus A320 aircraft to Australian and New Zealand routes [5][3] Group 2 - Other low-cost airlines have also faced challenges post-pandemic, with Spirit Airlines filing for bankruptcy in November 2022, reporting a loss of $336 million in the first half of 2024 [6] - Canada Jetlines and other low-cost carriers like Lynx Air and Swoop Airlines have also suspended operations due to financial difficulties [7] - In contrast, domestic low-cost carrier Spring Airlines has thrived post-pandemic, achieving the highest net profit among listed airlines in China in 2023 [8][9] Group 3 - The domestic aviation market has not seen any airline closures despite four years of losses during the pandemic, attributed to the high value of airline licenses and government support [7][10] - Spring Airlines has maintained profitability by leveraging its low-cost model and avoiding the impact of slow international route recovery [10]
交通运输:公路和港口高股息,并购和平台公司高增长
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-11 05:23
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - High dividend yields are favorable for highway and port companies due to declining domestic interest rates, making them attractive for allocation and investment [2] - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as a potential growth source in the transportation sector, particularly in the highway and bulk supply chain segments, supported by low interest rates and low valuations [3] - The rise of new energy and unmanned transportation is expected to benefit platform companies, with a focus on digital freight and ride-hailing services [4] Summary by Sections 1. Aviation - The aviation industry is expected to see a turning point in supply and demand by 2025, with cumulative revenue growth for airlines projected to match the increase in aircraft numbers [7] - Airlines are likely to experience a recovery in aircraft utilization hours and passenger load factors, leading to increased revenue per passenger kilometer [11] 2. Highways - The defensive value of high dividend highway companies is decreasing as the A-share index rebounds, while their investment value is increasing due to declining interest rates [27] - There is significant potential for mergers and acquisitions in the highway sector, with many listed highway companies having substantial room for asset securitization [30] - Companies like Guangdong Expressway A and Shandong Expressway are highlighted for their high return on equity and dividends [27] 3. Railways - Short-term growth in railway freight and passenger volumes is low, but there is potential for long-term growth driven by new energy vehicles and unmanned driving technologies [36] - The container transport volume in railways is expected to grow significantly, supported by various initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative [42] 4. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing rapid growth in both volume and revenue, with major players like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express showing increasing profits [45] - Price competition is easing, which may present investment opportunities in the sector [46] 5. Bulk Supply Chain - Major bulk supply chain companies in China are seeing a decline in market share, but their revenues remain among the highest globally [51] - Companies like Wuzhou International and Jianfa Group are actively engaging in mergers and acquisitions to enhance their market position [54] 6. Shipping - The shipping industry is facing challenges due to potential declines in global trade volumes as a result of U.S. tariffs, which may pressure shipping rates [57] - The oil shipping sector may benefit from lower oil prices leading to increased demand for oil replenishment [63] 7. Ports - Port container throughput is expected to show resilience despite fluctuations in export growth, with stable pricing anticipated [70] - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing logistics costs, which may limit the potential for rate increases in port fees [70] 8. New Energy and Unmanned Transportation - The adoption of new energy vehicles is significantly reducing travel costs, while smart driving technologies are expected to lower labor costs in transportation [74] - Companies in the ride-hailing and digital freight sectors are projected to experience substantial growth due to these technological advancements [77]
春秋航空:经营稳健,国际航线继续恢复-20250611
辉立证券· 2025-06-11 02:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Spring Airlines is "Accumulate" with a target price of CNY 65.5, representing a potential upside of 13.8% from the current price of CNY 57.55 [5][10]. Core Insights - Spring Airlines has demonstrated stable operating performance with a projected revenue of CNY 20 billion for 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of CNY 2.27 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year [2]. - The airline's passenger turnover (RPK) increased by 18.8% in 2024, reaching 127% of 2019 levels, with international routes showing significant recovery [3]. - The average load factor for 2024 was 91.5%, although it slightly decreased to 90.6% in Q1 2025 due to external factors [4]. Financial Performance - For FY24, Spring Airlines is expected to achieve net sales of CNY 20 billion, with net profit projected at CNY 2.27 billion [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 is forecasted to be CNY 2.68, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.5 [6][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 0.82 per share for FY24, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 1.4% [6]. Operational Metrics - The airline's aircraft utilization improved to 9.30 hours per day in 2024, which helped mitigate the impact of declining ticket prices [8]. - The fleet size is expected to grow from 129 aircraft at the end of 2024 to 160 by 2027, indicating ongoing expansion [9]. - The cost per available seat kilometer (ASK) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management strategies [8]. Market Position - Spring Airlines holds a competitive advantage in the low-cost airline sector, with a strong focus on leisure and low-cost business travel [10]. - The airline's market share in Shanghai's Pudong and Hongqiao airports increased in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [9].
春秋航空(601021) - 春秋航空股份有限公司章程
2025-06-10 16:32
春秋航空股份有限公司 章 程 (2025 年 6 月修订) | 第一章 | 总则 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 经营宗旨和范围 2 | | | 第三章 | 股 份 | 3 | | 第四章 | 股东和股东会 7 | | | 第五章 | 董事和董事会 23 | | | 第六章 | 高级管理人员 35 | | | 第七章 | 财务会计制度、利润分配和审计 37 | | | 第八章 | 通知和公告 41 | | | 第九章 | 合并、分立、增资、减资、解散和清算 42 | | | 第十章 | 修改章程 | 46 | | 第十一章 | 附 则 | 47 | 春秋航空股份有限公司 章程 第一章 总则 公司经中国民用航空局"民航函[2010]1282 号"文《民航企业机场联合 重组改制许可决定书》批准,由春秋航空有限公司整体变更为股份有限 公司;在上海市工商行政管理局注册登记,取得营业执照,营业执照注 册号为:310227001340394。 - 1 - 第一条 为维护春秋航空股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"或"本公司")、股东、 职工和债权人的合法权益,规范公司的组织和行为,根据《中华 ...