Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation is expected to receive a limited license from the U.S. Treasury Department for restricted operations in Venezuela, allowing only critical maintenance and safety-related functions [1][5]. U.S. Policy Shift - The new license represents a significant shift from the broader authorization previously granted under President Biden, which allowed Chevron to produce and sell Venezuelan crude oil [2][3]. - The restrictive nature of the new license indicates a return to Trump-era policies that prioritize isolation and pressure over engagement [3]. License Expiration and Implications - The current license for Chevron is set to expire on May 27, and the U.S. government will not renew it in its current form, contradicting earlier expectations of a 60-day extension [4]. - The limited license may only permit essential operations for safety and environmental protection, restricting Chevron's activities to basic maintenance [5][11]. Strategic Context - The limited license could serve as a strategic compromise, allowing the U.S. to maintain some influence in Venezuela while not appearing to support the Maduro regime [6]. - This policy development aligns with increased diplomatic activity aimed at restoring democratic governance in Venezuela [8][9]. Chevron's Operational Strategy - Chevron's continued presence in Venezuela, even under limited capacity, reflects the strategic value of its joint ventures with state-run PDVSA, particularly in key fields [10]. - The new restrictions may lead to an extended period of non-operational status for Chevron, limiting its ability to generate revenues or advance production capabilities [11]. Conclusion on U.S.-Venezuela Relations - The expected license reflects a calibrated shift in U.S. policy, balancing pressure with a narrow path for future diplomacy, while preventing complete withdrawal that could benefit rivals like China, Iran, and Russia [12].

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation has been ordered by the Trump administration to cease operations in Venezuela within 30 days, significantly impacting both U.S. and Venezuelan oil markets [1][2]. Group 1: Chevron's Operations and Impact - Chevron has been operating in Venezuela since 2022 under a U.S. sanctions exception, exporting crude oil and recovering billions in debt [2]. - The company’s joint ventures with PDVSA account for nearly 20% of Venezuela's oil output, which has stabilized the country's economy and controlled inflation [3]. - Chevron's operations have provided a steady revenue stream for Venezuela through royalties and taxes, benefiting its oil and banking sectors [6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The termination of Chevron's license will likely reduce Venezuela's oil revenues and could pressure U.S. gasoline prices, increasing risks for U.S. companies investing abroad [4]. - Chevron's Venezuelan oil exports decreased from 294,000 barrels per day in January to 252,000 barrels per day in February, indicating a downward trend that may affect global crude supply chains [5]. - The loss of Chevron's payments may weaken Venezuela's exchange market, leading to currency depreciation and further economic instability [7].