China’s imports of Iranian crude contracted by almost a third last month, in part due to subdued demand from private refiners after they saw higher shipments in June. https://t.co/eCyEbK52FD ...

Economic Data & Policy - Concerns arise regarding the timing of BLS data releases in relation to Fed meetings and presidential elections, potentially influencing policy decisions [3][4] - Speculation exists regarding the integrity of government data, including jobs data, although no direct influence was observed during the speaker's tenure [5][6] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs remain in place for various countries, including Japan (15%) and Switzerland (39%) [7] - The administration's trade policy aims to improve the balance of trade, potentially through tariffs or mutual reductions [8][9] - A tariff rate of approximately 30% is considered a significant threshold, potentially hindering trade relations [12] China Trade Deal - A major policy shift from China is unlikely before their upcoming Party Congress [10] - Restrictions on critical materials from China are not encouraging for trade negotiations [11]

Trade Relations & Tariffs - The US President's social media posts are creating uncertainty in trade talks with India [1] - The US President accuses India of buying Russian oil and reselling it, threatening to raise tariffs substantially, potentially to 25% [2] - The US President is escalating rhetoric against India regarding trade negotiations and Russia's actions in Ukraine [3] - It is uncertain whether the US President's actions are to gain leverage in trade negotiations or address Russia's compliance [4] - The US has imposed 39% tariffs on Switzerland due to a trade deficit [10] Geopolitical & Economic Implications - India seems to be finding alternative sources for oil purchases, mitigating the economic impact of potential US actions [4] - The US President is facing challenges with BRIC nations, including India, Brazil, and China [5] - Brazil is open to trade talks if treated as an equal [5] - The US relationship with China is in its own category, while negotiations with India have a long history [7] - US negotiators are not expected to meet with Indian counterparts until late August [10] Swiss Trade Situation - Switzerland is trying to find a way to satisfy the US President's demands to avoid tariffs [11] - Switzerland may offer large weapons purchases, particularly aircraft, or LNG and other energy deals [14]

Investment Strategy & Market Outlook - Initially holding 95% in cash, the portfolio is now 50% cash due to high market valuations [1][3] - Cash is considered "king" currently, with plans for aggressive buying during market corrections [2] - Holding cash provides a 4-5% interest rate from U S Treasuries, making it a safe and attractive option [3] - Emerging markets are showing promise, keeping pace with the US market in the last year [3][4] - Trade negotiations are expected to conclude in the next 4-5 months, potentially boosting emerging markets [4] Regional Investment Opportunities - Japan presents opportunities with good earnings, low price-earnings ratios, and growth, despite the Bank of Japan's policy rate of about 0 5% and inflation around 2 7% [5] - India and Taiwan are also promising markets, despite facing high tariffs from the US administration [6] - India's self-contained market and trade restrictions mitigate the impact of tariffs [7][8] - Consumer companies, airlines, and telecoms (e g Bharti Airtel) in India are attractive investment sectors [9] Risks & Uncertainties - Tariffs have negatively impacted market sentiment, raising concerns about higher inflation and poor earnings for import/export-dependent companies [14] - The ultimate impact of tariffs remains uncertain, with potential legal challenges in US federal courts [15] - Competition in the tech sector, particularly in AI, poses a significant risk to tech investments [25][26]

Pakistan has officially added a new Chinese attack helicopter to its military arsenal — the Z-10ME — a similar model to the one China uses to patrol its border with India. https://t.co/l1YWiLoi6j ...

Some accounts are spreading rumors that China has banned cryptocurrencies again, without any evidence.The four key facts you need to know:- Hong Kong of China, as a pilot zone, is fully embracing cryptocurrencies- China has never banned individual crypto transactions; only prohibits institutional participation- Bitcoin mining still occurs in many parts of China- Stablecoins and RWAs are gaining popularity among Chinese government officials ...

If China attacked Taiwan, how would the conflict unfold? A controversial new Taiwanese drama imagines an invasion https://t.co/KwDS9cQ6E7 ...

From @WSJopinion: Is there something more than a trade deal afoot? There’s some reason to think President Trump is hunting a larger diplomatic breakthrough to pull China from supporting Russia https://t.co/paSR70jLti ...

AI Industry Overview - China possesses favorable conditions for AI development [1] - The industry faces challenges due to limited access to domestic computing power [1] - Restrictions on American chip supplies have hindered Chinese firms [1] Potential Change - The situation regarding computing power access may be evolving [1]

Is China uninvestable until this tariff war or these tariff tensions are fixed. I think for many countries there are be very big risks and the important thing is to pick your size of your exposure. In other words, I my mantra is 15 good uncorrelated return streams.I think you have to have diversification and that China as a small piece should be part of that diversification. All things considered, if it's not a geopolitical and you're not instructed to do otherwise, by and large, I think that some element o ...