ADP Research will now be releasing US payroll data on a weekly basis, in addition to its monthly report, to provide high-frequency insights into the labor market. https://t.co/ZCxZlkZrvV ...

Core Insights - ADP has announced a preliminary U.S. estimate indicating an average increase of 14,250 jobs in the four weeks ending on October 11, 2025, providing a timely view of the labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Release - ADP will release a weekly preliminary estimate of private sector employment every Tuesday, starting from October 28, 2025, to offer a directional indicator of the labor market [1][4]. - A comprehensive monthly jobs report will continue to be released on the first Wednesday of each month, based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. [2][4]. Methodology and Collaboration - The preliminary estimate is based on ADP's high-frequency data and is produced in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, ensuring a dynamic view of job creation and loss [3][4]. - ADP's data is derived from anonymized and aggregated administrative data on private-sector payrolls, providing a detailed picture of employment changes [4][6]. Future Reporting Schedule - The next monthly ADP National Employment Report will be released on November 5, 2025, followed by subsequent weekly preliminary estimates on November 11, 18, and 25, 2025 [5][6].

In the wake of the US government shutdown, which delayed official jobs and CPI reports, the Federal Reserve is expected to pivot to private sector indicators for insights into labor markets and inflation. Key alternatives include the ADP employment report, which tracks payroll data from over 26 million workers and has shown some long-term correlation with the BLS non-farm payrolls data. Although the short-term correlation is pretty weak, ISM manufacturing and services indexes, which are real-time surveys on ...

Core Insights - ADP is set to release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on October 29, with a history of surpassing earnings estimates, averaging a surprise of 3.7% over the last four quarters [1] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADP's revenue is $5.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.1% [2] - Employer Services revenue is expected to be $3.4 billion, indicating a 5% increase from the previous year [2] - Professional Employer Organization (PEO) services are projected to generate $1.7 billion in revenue, suggesting a 7.3% year-over-year growth [3] Earnings Projections - Interest on funds held for clients is estimated at $294.4 million, representing a 16.3% increase from the prior year [3] - The average paid PEO worksite employees for the quarter is projected to be 759, with a 1% change in pay per control anticipated [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at $2.44, indicating a year-over-year growth of 4.7% [4] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for ADP, with an Earnings ESP of +1.80% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [5] Comparison with Other Companies - Western Digital is expected to report revenues of $2.7 billion, a 34% year-over-year decline, with an EPS consensus of $1.58, reflecting an 11.2% decrease [7] - Seagate Technology anticipates revenues of $2.5 billion, indicating a 16.7% year-over-year increase, with an EPS consensus of $2.36, suggesting a 49.4% growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts anticipate Automatic Data Processing (ADP) to report quarterly earnings of $2.44 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, with revenues expected to reach $5.13 billion, up 6.1% from the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised downward by 0.1% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [1][2] - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [2] Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Segment revenues- Employer Services' is $3.45 billion, showing a year-over-year change of +5.7% [4] - 'Revenues- Interest on funds held for clients' is estimated at $281.99 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +11.3% [4] - 'Revenues- PEO revenues' are projected to reach $1.67 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +6.3% [4] - 'Segment revenues- PEO Services' are forecasted to be $1.68 billion, with a year-over-year change of +6.7% [5] - 'Revenues, other than interest on funds held for clients and PEO revenues' are expected to total $3.17 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +5.3% [5] Key Metrics - The average paid PEO worksite employees during the period is estimated to be 757, compared to 737 in the previous year [6] - ADP shares have decreased by 2.5% in the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 1.3% [6] - ADP holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting expected underperformance relative to the overall market in the near term [6]

Market Overview & Investment Thesis - Fintech sector exhibits a dichotomy: strong fundamentals ($2 trillion+ market cap, solid financials, secular tailwinds) versus negative investor sentiment (competition, disruption worries) [3][4] - Wells Fargo believes investor sentiment is overly negative, presenting numerous opportunities in the fintech space [4] "Fab Five" Fintech Companies - **Auden:** Possesses best-in-class back-end tech stack, expanding into new markets, expected to maintain 20%+ topline growth for several years [6] - **Affirm:** Buy now pay later (BNPL) has robust secular opportunity, currently representing only 8% of US e-commerce; management team and execution are impressive [7] - **Mastercard:** Maintains a tremendous competitive moat, adapting to new payment technologies, and generating a terrific cash flow profile [8] - **Visa:** Similar thesis to Mastercard, with effective diversification into value-added services [9] - **Toast:** Holds a strong competitive position in the point-of-sale space [9] Underweight Ratings (Cyclical Call) - ADP and Paychex are underweight due to cyclical concerns related to potential rising unemployment and lowering of interest rates [10] - The underweight ratings are not structural, as these companies still have solid business models [10] Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) - Wells Fargo views BNPL as a more consumer-friendly product than traditional credit cards due to transparency and lack of late fees (specifically the "pay in four" model) [12][13][14] - BNPL can help consumers stretch their dollars, especially around the holidays, and retailers benefit from increased transactions [14]

Core Insights - ADP reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings per share of $2.26, exceeding consensus estimates by 1.8% and reflecting an 8.1% year-over-year increase. Total revenues reached $5.1 billion, surpassing estimates by 1.5% and growing 5.7% year-over-year [1][10]. Business Strategy - The company employs a three-tier business strategy that enhances its position as a human capital management (HCM) technology and services provider, offering a comprehensive suite of cloud-based HCM and HR Outsourcing (HRO) solutions [2]. - ADP is expanding its global HCM and HRO businesses through established local software solutions and cloud-based multi-country solutions [2]. Operational Initiatives - The company has increased DataCloud penetration and investment in inside sales, mid-market migrations, and service alignment initiatives, leveraging ongoing transformation efforts [3]. - Continuous innovation and operational improvements are aimed at expanding margins and enhancing forward-thinking capabilities [3]. Financial Performance - ADP has consistently paid dividends, with payouts of $2.4 billion in fiscal 2025, up from $2.2 billion in 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders and confidence in business stability [4]. - The current ratio at the end of Q4 fiscal 2025 was 1.05, an improvement from 1.02 in the previous quarter and 1.01 a year ago, suggesting the company can easily cover short-term obligations [5]. Expenditure Trends - The company has seen a notable increase in expenditures due to acquisitions and transformation projects, with increases of 6.8% and 6.2% in fiscal 2025 and 2024, respectively [6]. - Historical expenditure increases of 8% and 10% in fiscal 2023 and 2022 indicate ongoing pressure on ADP's bottom-line performance [6]. Competitive Landscape - ADP faces significant competition across its product lines, particularly in Employer Services and PEO Services, which compete with independent business outsourcing companies [7]. - The company has experienced a decline in its retention rate, leading to increased competition and migration from its legacy business [7].

Core Viewpoint - Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADP) is set to announce its Q1 '26 earnings on October 29, indicating a significant upcoming event for investors and analysts to monitor [1]. Group 1 - The company is expected to provide insights into its financial performance, which may influence investor sentiment and stock valuation [1]. - The author emphasizes a long-term investment strategy, focusing on a mix of growth, value, and dividend-paying stocks, with a particular inclination towards value investments [1].

The government shutdown means no data for the markets or the Fed. There have been more private sector reports, but is it enough to fill the void. Our senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us now uh with the answer.Hey, Steve. >> Hey, Mike. Yeah, investors and officials, they've been turning to private sector data to fill the void from the government shutdown.Some suggesting we can get rid of the government data entirely. But has anyone out there really invented a better mousetrap. There are some diff ...

There's cause for concern looking at the state of the American economy right now. A new report this past week from the payroll processing firm ADP shows that private payrolls, data from ADP's client companies covering about 15th of all US private sector workers declined by 32,000 in the month of September. That's the biggest one-month drop in two and a half years.ADP also revised its payroll numbers from August to a loss of $3,000 3,000 private sector jobs rather than an increase of 54,000 that was initiall ...