Trump will follow through and enforce harsh new oil sanctions on Russia to pressure Putin into negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the US ambassador to NATO said https://t.co/pOOzK6pbMa ...

“All decisions are taken by Putin alone. No one has his ear.”The fortunes of Russia’s elite depend on the president. 1843 explains why paranoia is spreading through the old guard https://t.co/15EZDFZ2QQ ...

Some Poles worry that Germany may return to its habit of placating Russia. A dispute over two pipelines, built to carry natural gas between the two countries, has worsened this https://t.co/bDzRhij45f ...

As winter approaches Russia is acting yet more clinically and more cynically than it has before. Attacks on front-line areas like Sumy and Chernihiv have left parts of those regions without power for days https://t.co/hvGFVINsUv ...

To counter Russia and China in the high north, America must expand its icebreaker fleet. To do so quickly, it will need Finland’s help https://t.co/iPag4x8Vvc ...

Why don’t Russia and China fear the West? @DSORennie, our geopolitics editor, examines how Europe and America are being confused and divided by their rivals https://t.co/05POQvoXor https://t.co/jPUc3YXGmt ...

To counter Russia and China in the high north, America must expand its icebreaker fleet. To do so quickly, it will need Finland’s help https://t.co/EQp0jeVRpz ...

Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global oil market, particularly the dynamics of supply and demand, OPEC+ production, and price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is expected to move towards a larger surplus through 1Q26 due to seasonally weak demand and robust supply, with the IEA forecasting a 4Q25 surplus of 3.6 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and the EIA forecasting 2.6 Mb/d [2][3] - The market is projected to be oversupplied by 1.5 Mb/d in 4Q25, 2.4 Mb/d in 1Q26, and 1.7 Mb/d on average in 2026, indicating a looser market than previously anticipated [2][18] OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ output increased by 880 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) month-over-month in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 550 kb/d to this increase [5][90] - The total increase from the eight countries adhering to voluntary cuts was 920 kb/d, significantly above the planned increase of 272 kb/d [5][90] - OPEC+ supply growth is projected at 1.2 Mb/d for 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d for 2026, with expectations of a full unwinding of the 1.65 Mb/d voluntary cuts by September 2026 [5][94] Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth - Non-OPEC+ supply growth was stronger than expected in 3Q25, with the EIA raising its forecasts to 1.8 Mb/d for 2025 and 1.0 Mb/d for 2026 [4][39] - US rig activity showed a slight rebound, supporting crude output stability, with US supply growth revised up to 0.6 Mb/d for 2025 [4][49] Demand Forecasts - Demand growth estimates were mixed, with the IEA lowering its 2025 growth estimate to 0.7 Mb/d, while the EIA raised it to 1.1 Mb/d [3][32] - UBS maintains its demand growth forecasts at 0.9 Mb/d for 2025 and 1.1 Mb/d for 2026, reflecting weaker-than-expected actuals in 3Q25 [27][60] Price Forecasts - Brent prices are expected to remain in the low-$60s in the near term, with potential upside scenarios driven by supply disruptions, particularly in Russia, which could lift prices back into the $70/bbl range [9][10] - Conversely, downside scenarios could see Brent prices drop below $60/bbl due to ongoing OPEC+ production increases and a potential global economic slowdown [11][12] Inventory Trends - Global inventories have been on an upward trajectory, with an increase of approximately 340 million barrels between January and September 2025, corresponding to an average of 1.2 Mb/d [67] - The IEA projects an accelerated rate of inventory build-up, with global stocks expected to increase at a pace of 1.5 Mb/d in 4Q25 [67] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran and Russia, have supported oil prices, but the market is under greater pressure from growing excess supply [56][65] - The ongoing tariff dispute between the US and China poses uncertainties for global economic growth, which could impact oil demand [60][63] Additional Insights - The impact of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to slow down gasoline demand growth over time, with a projected replacement of 4.3 Mb/d of oil for passenger vehicles globally by 2030 [75] - US gasoline demand in 3Q25 was approximately 1% lower than the previous year, indicating a potential shift in consumption patterns [76] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global oil market.

“It feels more like some sort of complicated love triangle.” On this week’s “Drum Tower” podcast: the awkward relationship between China, Russia and North Korea https://t.co/sFlCirhZwh ...

To counter Russia and China in the high north, America must expand its icebreaker fleet. To do so quickly, it will need Finland’s help https://t.co/Q9wbEZuBpr ...