ab 14 November 2025 Oil prices might recover in 2026-28E, China demand dragged by gasoline/diesel Crude oil: UBS projects Brent crude oil price to average US$64/70/75/bbl in 2026-28, with expectations that the second tranche of OPEC+'s voluntary cuts of 1.65Mb/d may end in Dec 2026 and the effective production increase may be 40% of the headline numbers. Oil prices could improve from later part of 2026, in UBS view. Weak gasoline and diesel consumption might further weigh on China demand and we project 4.4% ...

17 November 2025 | 11:08AM EST Commodities Research ENERGY TOMORROW Oil Prices Through 2035: Down in 2026 on Last Supply Wave, Up Later Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and o ...

Summary of Global Oil Demand Forecast through 2040 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically forecasting oil demand growth through 2040, highlighting the impact of energy demand and low-carbon technology limitations [2][4][8]. Key Forecasts and Insights - **Oil Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is projected to increase from 103.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 113.0 mb/d in 2040, with an annual average growth rate of 0.6 mb/d (0.5% CAGR) [2][8]. - **Road Transportation**: Oil demand for road transportation is expected to rise until 2030, driven by the growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales and LNG trucks in China. A peak is anticipated in 2030, followed by a gradual decline [2][18][20]. - **Air Transportation**: Air transportation oil demand is forecasted to grow at an annual average rate of 2.4% (0.2 mb/d) through 2040, primarily due to rising incomes in non-OECD countries [2][26]. - **Petrochemical Demand**: As road oil demand plateaus, petrochemical demand (naphtha, ethane, LPG) is expected to become the main driver of oil demand growth, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5 mb/d (2.1% CAGR) [2][32]. Supporting Arguments - **Drivers of Oil Demand**: - Limited alternatives for jet fuel and petrochemicals due to technological bottlenecks [2][12]. - Energy demand growth is expected to outpace oil displacement by low-carbon alternatives, leading to a long plateau in road oil demand post-2030 [2][57]. - An indirect boost to oil demand from AI is estimated at 3 mb/d by 2040, linked to higher global GDP [2][49]. Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: Potential faster advancements in low-carbon technologies and the lingering effects of economic recessions pose risks to the long-term oil demand forecast [2][67]. - **Refining Margins**: High refined product margins are anticipated to persist, as uncertainty regarding long-term demand has led to reduced refining capital expenditures [2][67]. Additional Insights - **Regional Variations**: Non-OECD countries are expected to drive over 90% of petrochemical oil demand growth, particularly in China and the Middle East, while OECD consumption is declining due to rising costs and ESG concerns [2][37]. - **Power Generation**: Oil demand for power generation is projected to decline significantly, with an expected 80% drop by 2040, primarily due to a shift towards natural gas and renewable energy sources [2][43][45]. Conclusion - The report presents a solid outlook for global oil demand growth over the next decade, with significant contributions from petrochemicals and air transportation, while acknowledging the potential for downside risks from technological advancements and economic fluctuations [2][51].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Commodities The Oil Manual – Chartbook: >200 Charts that Decode the Oil Market M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Martijn Rats, CFA Equity Analyst & Commodity Strategist martijn.rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425 6618 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Charlotte Firkins Commodity Strategist charlotte.firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425 3866 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Amy Gower Commodity Strategist amy.gowe ...

Summary of the Conference Call on North American Midstream & Renewable Energy Infrastructure Industry Overview - The report focuses on the North American midstream sector, particularly how crude oil prices, specifically WTI (West Texas Intermediate), influence midstream stocks performance [1][2]. Key Insights - A quantitative analysis was conducted to understand the historical relationship between WTI prices and individual midstream stocks, aiming to prepare investors for potential near-term oil price declines [9][10]. - The report indicates that midstream stocks exhibit negative convexity to oil prices, meaning they tend to decline more sharply when WTI prices fall than they rise when prices increase [10]. - Current market conditions show that WTI has decreased by 24% since its recent peak in January 2025, which is in the $60 price band, a scenario that correlates with higher risks for midstream stocks [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach, recommending to consider long positions in specific midstream stocks such as TRGP (Overweight), OKE (Overweight), WBI (Equal-weight), and PAA (Equal-weight) if WTI falls below $55 per barrel [10][12][15]. - The valuation of these stocks appears inexpensive, but a more aggressive capital allocation is advised only if WTI drops to the $50-$55 range [12][15]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the potential for a global oil market oversupply could lead to further downside risks for oil-levered midstream equities [12]. - Despite the current lag in performance of oil-levered midstream equities during recent down days for crude oil, the long-term contracted nature of most midstream companies provides cash flow resiliency and limits funding risks [12]. Correlation Analysis - The report includes various exhibits showing the correlation between WTI prices and midstream companies over the years, indicating that correlations tend to be higher during periods of significant price movements [16][17]. - Historical data from 2014 to 2025 shows varying degrees of correlation between WTI and midstream stocks, with a notable increase in correlation during downturns [17]. Conclusion - The North American midstream sector is currently viewed as attractive, but investors are advised to remain patient and strategic in their approach, particularly in light of potential oil price corrections and the associated risks for midstream equities [8][12].

Summary of OPEC+ Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas - **Key Organization**: OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) Core Points and Arguments 1. **Production Quota Adjustments**: OPEC+ announced a pause in production quota hikes for the first quarter of 2026, maintaining a cautious approach due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] 2. **Recent Quota Increases**: The Group-of-8 within OPEC+ had previously increased production quotas by 137 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) for December, reversing voluntary cuts made in April 2023, totaling 1.65 million barrels per day (mb/d) [1][11] 3. **Price Forecast Adjustments**: Following OPEC's announcement and recent sanctions, the price forecast for Brent crude was modestly increased from $57.5 to $60 per barrel for the first half of 2026 [5][15] 4. **Market Surplus Expectations**: A significant surplus in the oil market is anticipated in 2026, particularly in the first half, with expectations of price softening without OPEC intervention [15][16] 5. **Production Estimates Variability**: The range of estimates for OPEC production has widened significantly since early 2023, now regularly exceeding 2.5 mb/d, indicating measurement challenges [3][10] 6. **Discrepancy Between Quota and Production**: There is a notable gap between OPEC's production quotas and actual production, with estimates suggesting only a 0.5 mb/d increase in production despite a 2.6 mb/d quota increase from March to October [11][12] 7. **Future Production Outlook**: It is expected that OPEC production growth will be limited in 2026 due to diminished spare capacity, with demand growth gradually reducing the surplus by the second half of 2027 [16][17] Additional Important Insights 1. **OPEC's Proactive Stance**: The decision to pause quota hikes signals that OPEC is responsive to market conditions, countering previous perceptions of an 'auto-pilot' approach [14] 2. **Impact of Sanctions**: Recent sanctions against Russian oil assets are expected to increase demand for Brent-linked crudes, contributing to the upward price adjustment [15] 3. **Long-term Price Projections**: Brent prices are projected to rise to $65 per barrel by the second half of 2027 as the market gradually returns to balance [17] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the OPEC+ conference call, highlighting the organization's strategic decisions and market implications.

Summary of Key Points from the Oil Data Digest Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically detailing oil inventory data across various regions including the US, Japan, Europe, Singapore, and Fujairah. Core Insights and Arguments - **Total Oil Inventories**: Total oil inventories decreased by 27.4 million barrels (mln bbls) last week, with crude stocks down by 6.7 mln bbls and refined product stocks down by 20.7 mln bbls, indicating a significant draw across all regions [2][3][4][6]. - **Regional Breakdown**: - **US**: Crude stocks drew by 6.3 mln bbls, with a notable drop in gasoline stocks by 5.9 mln bbls and middle distillate stocks by 3.4 mln bbls [6][75][77]. - **Japan**: Total oil stocks decreased by 2.7 mln bbls, with crude stocks contributing to this draw [32][4]. - **Europe**: Total oil stocks saw a minor draw of 0.4 mln bbls [34]. - **Singapore**: Product inventories decreased by 4.8 mln bbls [27]. - **Fujairah**: Product inventories drew by 2.3 mln bbls [25]. Additional Important Information - **Refinery Operations**: US refinery runs fell by 510 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) week-over-week, primarily due to unplanned outages in key refineries [75][83]. - **Crude Production**: US crude production increased slightly by 20 kbpd, averaging 13.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) [89]. - **Import and Export Trends**: Crude imports dropped by 0.9 mbpd while exports rose by 0.2 mbpd, contributing to the overall draw in crude inventories [90][76]. - **Historical Context**: The current inventory levels for gasoline and middle distillates are now below the levels seen in 2024 for the same period, indicating tighter supply conditions [77]. Summary Tables - **Week-Over-Week Changes**: A summary table indicates significant draws in crude and refined products across various regions, with total crude stocks down by 6.736 mln bbls and refined products down by 20.668 mln bbls [6][7][78]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the oil inventory report, highlighting trends and changes in the oil market that could impact investment decisions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the impact of new sanctions on Russia's oil sector and the subsequent effects on oil prices and supply dynamics [1][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Rally**: Oil prices experienced a significant rally following the announcement of sanctions against major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are responsible for approximately 3.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil exports [11][12]. - **Supply Disruption Estimates**: The Brent forward curve now reflects a supply disruption of approximately 184 million barrels, indicating a need for commercial OECD stocks to decline by about 1 mb/d to align with historical averages [3][20][31]. - **OECD Inventory Trends**: Current commercial OECD inventories are trending upwards by about 0.6 mb/d over the last six months, suggesting that a significant reversal in inventory levels is unlikely without substantial supply disruptions [10][28][31]. - **Historical Context**: Previous sanctions have shown that the oil market often rallies on anticipated supply losses, but actual export volumes tend to be less affected than initially expected due to rerouting and workarounds [14][31]. - **Demand Dynamics**: There are indications that underlying demand for oil is stronger than consensus estimates, with expectations of a gradual rebalancing of the oil market from the second half of 2026 onwards [32]. Additional Important Insights - **Chinese and Indian Buyers**: Reports indicate that Chinese state oil majors and Indian refiners are planning to suspend purchases of Russian oil, which could lead to a decline in overall Russian oil exports [13]. - **Global Inventory Levels**: Total global oil inventories have increased by 357 million barrels over the last six months, with a significant portion attributed to oil-on-water from countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [26][28]. - **Price Forecasts**: Brent price forecasts remain unchanged, with expectations for the Brent spot price to hover in the high $50s for a period before potentially increasing as the market rebalances [6][31][32]. Conclusion - The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by geopolitical factors, supply chain dynamics, and historical precedents. The potential for significant supply disruptions due to sanctions on Russian oil is acknowledged, but historical data suggests that the actual impact may be less severe than anticipated. The market is expected to gradually rebalance, with price forecasts reflecting a cautious outlook in the near term [31][32].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the oil industry, specifically the impact of new US sanctions on Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are the largest in Russia [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Reaction**: Brent and WTI oil prices increased by 5% to $66 and $62 respectively following the announcement of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for 45% of Russia's oil exports [1][4][8]. 2. **Export Volumes**: Rosneft and Lukoil have exported approximately 3.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-to-date, with crude oil making up 2.2 mb/d of this total [1][8][9]. 3. **Supply-Demand Balance**: The company maintains its supply-demand balance and oil price forecast, projecting Brent/WTI prices to decline to averages of $56/52 by 2026. This forecast assumes a reduction in Russian liquids production by 0.6 mb/d by 2026 compared to 2024 levels [1][12][15]. 4. **Potential Upside Risks**: The sanctions could lead to additional upside risks to oil prices, particularly if Russian supply decreases significantly. In scenarios where Russian supply falls by 1.5 mb/d, Brent prices could peak at nearly $85 before averaging $73 in 2026 [1][27][30]. 5. **Factors Mitigating Impact**: The potential impact of sanctions on global oil imports may be limited due to: - Possible exemptions for importers [15][17]. - Continued purchases of discounted Russian oil [15][17]. - Reorganization of trade networks following previous sanctions [15][18]. - Increased production from OPEC to stabilize the market [15][18]. 6. **Temporary Nature of Reductions**: The reduction in Russian oil purchases may be temporary if peace negotiations progress or if energy affordability becomes a higher priority for Western policymakers [1][22][24]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Pricing Adjustments**: The crude market has adjusted to reflect a nearly 60 percentage point increase in the likelihood of a significant disruption in Russian oil supply [2][34]. 2. **Production Estimates**: Rosneft and Lukoil's total liquids production is estimated at approximately 4.6 mb/d year-to-date, indicating a significant portion of their output is still operational despite sanctions [11][12]. 3. **Regional Production Distribution**: About 70% of the combined crude volumes from Rosneft and Lukoil are produced in regions with both domestic and export outlets, which may help mitigate the impact of sanctions [36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of US sanctions on Russian oil producers and the broader oil market dynamics.

Summary of Weekly Oil Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically crude oil and refined products in the United States. Key Points Crude Oil Inventory and Production - Crude oil inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels (Mb), contrasting with the consensus expectation of an increase of 1.2 Mb and the 5-year average increase of 1.6 Mb [1] - API data indicated a larger draw of 3.0 Mb [1] - Crude production remained stable at 13.6 million barrels per day (Mb/d) [1] - Refinery utilization increased by 290 basis points week-over-week (w/w) to 88.6% of operable capacity, against a consensus expectation of a decrease of 40 basis points [1] Product Demand and Consumption - Implied oil products consumption rose by 0.3 Mb/d w/w to 20.0 Mb/d, primarily driven by propane, which increased by 0.4 Mb/d [2] - Total demand over a 4-week average remained flat at 20.5 Mb/d [2] Product Inventories - Total product inventories fell by 3.2 Mb to 862 Mb, led by a decrease in gasoline inventories by 2.1 Mb, which was larger than the consensus decrease of 0.8 Mb [3] - Jet fuel and distillate inventories also decreased by 1.5 Mb each, while gains were seen in "Others" (+1.3 Mb), propane (+0.8 Mb), and fuel oil (+0.5 Mb) [3] Detailed Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Crude oil production was reported at 13,629 kb/d, with a slight decrease of 7 kb/d [4] - Crude oil imports increased by 393 kb/d to 5,918 kb/d [4] - Exports of crude oil decreased by 263 kb/d to 4,203 kb/d [4] - Total crude oil stocks were reported at 422.8 Mb, down by 1.0 Mb [4] - Gasoline production increased by 134 kb/d to 9,612 kb/d, while gasoline stocks decreased by 2.1 Mb to 216.7 Mb [4] - Middle distillate production rose by 40 kb/d to 4,632 kb/d, with stocks down by 1.5 Mb to 115.6 Mb [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates a bullish sentiment in the crude oil market due to the unexpected draw in inventories and increased refinery utilization [1][4] - The overall demand for oil products remains stable, with fluctuations in specific categories such as propane and distillates [2][3] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring both inventory levels and production rates to gauge market conditions and potential investment opportunities in the oil sector [1][2][3] - The data suggests that while there are fluctuations in specific product demands, the overall market remains resilient, indicating potential stability in oil prices moving forward [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the weekly oil report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the oil industry in the United States.