March 20, 2026 03:29 PM GMT Oil Data Digest | Europe Weekly Oil Stock Summary Total oil inventories drew by 12.5 mln bbls last week. Crude stocks built by 0.7 mln bbls, as a build in the US offset draws in NW Europe and Japan. Refined product stocks drew by 13.1 mln bbls, driven by draws in the US and NW Europe. The charts below summarise all oil inventory data available on a weekly basis for the US from the EIA, Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) from Genscape and PJK, Japan from PAJ, Singapore from IE, and ...

19 March 2026 | 11:30PM EDT Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Sanctioned Oil on Water: A Partial Offset to Hormuz Disruptions Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Filippo Cuscito +44(20)7051-9073 | filippo.cuscito@gs.com Goldman Sachs ...

Summary of Key Points from the Oil Analyst Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the implications of geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply, specifically regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran war [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Short-term Oil Price Trends**: - Oil prices are expected to trend higher due to low flows through the Strait of Hormuz [1][6]. - Brent crude prices may exceed the 2008 all-time high if supply disruptions persist [1][6]. 2. **Long-term Price Risks**: - The report highlights several risks to long-term oil prices stemming from the Iran war and potential supply disruptions: - **Risk 1 (Price Upside)**: Low oil output could persist longer due to infrastructure damage, with historical data suggesting an average production hit of 42% after four years from major supply shocks [1][8][12]. - **Risk 2 (Limit Upside)**: OPEC may stabilize prices by deploying spare capacity after the Strait reopens [1][25][26]. - **Risk 3 (Upside)**: Strategic stockpiling may accelerate due to geopolitical uncertainties, potentially increasing demand from 2027 [1][35][41]. - **Risk 4 (Downside)**: High prices could slow demand growth by promoting fuel efficiency and shifting to alternative fuels [1][43][45]. 3. **Production Estimates**: - Iran and other Persian Gulf countries produced 3.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) and 21.8 mb/d of crude oil in 2025, respectively, accounting for 30% of global crude production [1][19][22]. - If Iran experiences a 42% production hit, it could result in a reduction of 1.5 mb/d [1][20]. 4. **OPEC's Role**: - OPEC's spare capacity is estimated at 3.7 mb/d, primarily concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which could be utilized to stabilize markets post-disruption [1][25][27]. 5. **Strategic Stockpiling**: - The report anticipates a potential increase in global strategic stockpiling rates to 1.9 mb/d from 2027, which could add $12 to the end-2027 price forecast [1][37][41]. 6. **Price Scenarios**: - Various scenarios for Brent prices in 2027Q4 include: - $24/bbl if Hormuz flows remain low for 60 days - $20/bbl if Middle Eastern production is persistently 2 mb/d lower after reopening - $12/bbl if global strategic stockpiling accelerates [1][56]. Additional Important Insights - Historical analysis indicates that persistent supply losses often result from damage to oil infrastructure and low investment in affected regions [1][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical stability in the Middle East for future oil supply and pricing dynamics [1][19][21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market as discussed in the report, highlighting both potential opportunities and risks for investors.

March 19, 2026 08:30 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Foundation Oil and related commodities – exposure guide Over the past two weeks, we have covered different facets of macro implications from geopolitical developments. In this comprehensive slide deck, we have refreshed and aggregated the analysis, bringing it to you all in one place. Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Chetan Ahya Chief Asia Economist Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. Derrick Y Kam Asia Econ ...

18 March 2026 | 2:42PM EDT Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Energy Infrastructure Risks Rise; Still Low Hormuz Flows n Energy prices are rising today on growing risks to energy infrastructure: 1 On March 2, Platts removed Dubai, Upper Zakum and Al Shaheen from its from its deliverable market basket. This left Murban and Oman as the only viable grades to set the "Cash Dubai" (M1) price. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certificatio ...

Citi Research March 18, 2026 Mideast Conflict and Closure of Strait of Hormuz - When a Wildcard Becomes the Reality – Commodity Update Maximilian LaytonAC Global Head | Commodities max.layton@citi.com +44 20 7986 4556 Anthony YuenAC Energy Head anthony.yuen@citi.com +852 2501 2731 Eric G. LeeAC Energy Strategy eric.g.lee@citi.com +1 212 723 1474 Francesco MartocciaAC Energy Strategy francesco.martoccia@citi.com +39 02 8906 4571 Arkady GevorkyanAC Commodities Strategy arkady.gevorkyan@citi.com +1 212 723 105 ...

16 March 2026 | 9:31PM EDT Commodities Research Oil Comment: Even Larger Shock for Refined Products Than for Crude Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43 ...

March 16, 2026 06:28 AM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe Strait of Hormuz: Air Pocket Hormuz is still effectively shut, product markets are tightening fast, and reopening is not the same as recovery. We raise our Brent forecasts as the market faces a longer physical 'air pocket' than initially foreseen Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: The number of crude, refined product and LNG carriers leaving the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz remains around 0-2 per day, from ~35 per day before the conflict M Idea Morgan Stanl ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the **Middle East** as a critical supplier of **fertilizers**, **aluminium**, **petrochemicals**, and other energy-intensive inputs in global supply chains [5][8][57]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **closure of the Strait of Hormuz** has led to significant production shut-ins, with supply disruptions expected to persist even after reopening [5][7]. - The **Middle East** is responsible for approximately **20% of global oil** and **25% of LNG** flows, making it a vital region for energy supply [7]. - The ongoing **US-Iran conflict** is assessed for its potential **second-order supply chain implications**, which could lead to nonlinear disruptions across various industrial sectors [2][5]. - Global manufacturing PMIs had recently indicated a recovery, but sustained energy price spikes are likely to compress margins and lower output, potentially stalling this recovery [10][12]. - Historical data shows that energy shocks have disrupted industrial cycles, with developed market PMIs falling sharply after the onset of the **Russia-Ukraine war** in February 2022, and not fully recovering to pre-shock levels [12]. Supply Chain Risks - The **second-order effects** of the current energy supply disruptions are expected to be heterogeneous across regions, depending on each economy's supply chain structure and exposure to Middle Eastern intermediate goods [9]. - Asian economies, particularly **North Asia** (Japan, Korea, Taiwan), are identified as most exposed to these disruptions, with significant reliance on Middle Eastern energy supplies [21][39]. - Countries like **India**, **Thailand**, and the **Philippines** face considerable risks due to lower reserves of crude oil and natural gas [21][39]. Fertilizer Supply Chain Implications - The Middle East is a major exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with over **$12 billion** of fertilizers imported by countries under coverage, representing over **16%** of all fertilizer trade [41][42]. - India is highlighted as the most exposed economy in Asia regarding fertilizer imports, with **36%** of its fertilizer imports coming from the Middle East [45]. - The potential for disruptions in fertilizer supply could have significant implications for global agricultural commodity prices and exports [43]. Aluminium and Petrochemical Supply Chain Implications - The region is also a key player in the **aluminium** market, with over **$15 billion** worth of aluminium trade potentially exposed, representing roughly **8%** of global aluminium trade [53][52]. - The **petrochemical** sector is similarly affected, with approximately **$26 billion** of plastics trade exposed, particularly impacting countries like **China**, **India**, **Turkey**, and **Egypt** [57]. Conclusion - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy supply disruptions in the Middle East pose significant risks to global supply chains, particularly in energy-intensive industries such as fertilizers, aluminium, and petrochemicals. The potential for cascading effects on industrial production and agricultural markets is substantial, warranting close monitoring of developments in the region [5][41][57].

March 16, 2026 10:42 PM GMT Energy | North America Oil Scenario Analysis - What's Priced In? As we enter the third week of the Iran conflict, energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at a standstill. Given the large moves across commodities & equities, we revisit what's priced in, oil price sensitivities & upside/downside to consensus earnings across our E&P and Integrated coverage. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: The median FCF yield for our oil coverage is 12% at strip (~$80 WTI). This would move by ~3% ...