ab 26 January 2026 Global Research Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot Noisy start to the year, surplus intact Crude rebounds, risk still to the downside, if no further disruption Oil prices have traded in a $7/bbl range so far this year, buffeted by geopolitical developments. Brent has for now rebounded into the mid-$60s on risks around Iran and disruptions in Kazakstan. In the absence of further disruptions, we still see risk to the downside in the near-term as fundamentals still point to a sizable s ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 28 Jan 2026 15:25:03 ET │ 12 pages Oil Monitor Why are oil prices so strong, despite a supposed global oversupply and production returning from Kazakhstan and the US? CITI'S TAKE Oil prices can stay more elevated than many had expected, despite markets starting the year anticipating large oversupply. Recent events cannot fully explain the price strength: Brent is ~$68/bbl at the time of writing, far from the ~$50/bbl price that a 2-mb/d oversupplied market could imply. We had long expecte ...

Accessible version The Oil Gusher Reporting season is outlook season Industry Overview Key takeaways 4Q25 earnings in rear view mirror: 2026 outlook ahead 4Q25 earnings season is just around the corner for Europe's Big Oils (kicking off with Equinor on February 4th). Alongside 2025 results, we believe fresh guidance for 2026 will be in focus (see our take in our Year Ahead 2026: Cushions for soft landing). We prefer Oil Services > Big Oils > E&Ps and highlight TTE as our top Big Oil pick. $60/bbl Brent need ...

January 23, 2026 05:00 AM GMT Oil Data Digest | Europe M Update Key Agency Revisions – January 2026 We summarise January oil market forecasts from the IEA, EIA and OPEC. The IEA's estimate for the 2026 oil market has shrunk marginally on a small upgrade to OECD Europe demand but still sees a 3.7 mb/d imbalance. The EIA's surplus estimate grows to 2.8 mb/d on weaker demand outlook. Key Takeaways This report summarises estimates from the IEA, OPEC and the EIA, and compares them with our latest estimates from ...

Citi Research January 20, 2026 GCC Navigating Growth Amid Oil Oversupply and Geopolitical Uncertainty Ilker DomacAC Economist ilker.domac@citi.com +971-4509-9588 Gultekin IsiklarAC Economist gultekin.isiklar@citi.com +90-212-319-4915 See AppendixA-1 for AnalystCertification, Important Disclosures and ResearchAnalystAffiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors ...

ab 21 January 2026 The IEA slightly increased its projections for global oil demand growth, by 12kb/d in 2025 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +0.9Mb/d) and by 70kb/d in 2026 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +1.2Mb/ d). Absolute demand revisions rose by 130kb/d for 2025 and 200kb/d for 2026, driven by an upward revision to the base (+114kb/d for 2024). China's demand growth forecast was raised by 60kb/d for 2025, but reduced by 15kb/d to 180kb/d for both years. Non-OPEC+ growth also up Global Research First Read Global Oil Fundamentals La ...

22 January 2026 Bernstein Energy: Oil inventories build while geopolitics take centre stage Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Bob Brackett, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Irene Himona, Ph.D. +44 20 7762 5353 irene.himona@bernsteinsg.com We expect inventories to build through 2026, with supply growth outpacing demand. Global oil demand is expected to grow by almost1.0MMbls/d to 105MMbls/ d with non-OECD Asia (0.4MMbls/d) contributin ...

Natural gas has been volatile with cold weather driving a sharp move higher in recent days. How are investors balancing supply risk globally against a strong long-term US demand story? Where is the valuation risk/reward most attractive? While through most of 2025, many investors we spoke with were largely bullish on the outlook for natural gas prices and the outlook for natural gas E&Ps, in recent weeks and months investors have turned more cautious on the sub-sector given the potential global supply risk t ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the disruptions in Kazakhstan's oil production and the implications for global oil prices and stock levels [1][5][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Crude Prices Stability**: Crude prices have remained stable as attention shifted from Iranian supply risks to disruptions in Kazakhstan production and CPC pipeline flows [1]. - **CPC Pipeline Exports**: Oil flows via the CPC pipeline have decreased significantly, dropping below 0.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), the lowest level in over nine years. Month-to-date average CPC exports are nearly 1 mb/d lower than the initial loading program due to delays in mooring repairs and production halts in Kazakhstan [1][3]. - **Kazakhstan Production Disruption**: An estimated disruption of 0.5 mb/d in Kazakhstan's January production is noted, which is 0.3 mb/d below the baseline expectations [1]. - **Global Stock Builds**: Global visible stock builds have slowed to 0.7 mb/d over the last two weeks, down from 1.7 mb/d over the previous four weeks, attributed to Kazakhstan disruptions and higher heating demand [1][11]. - **OECD Stocks**: OECD commercial stocks accounted for nearly all of the global visible builds in the last two weeks, indicating a negative price impact [1][11]. - **Oil on Water**: The volume of oil on water peaked in early January but remains at the 94th percentile of its historical distribution. Sanctioned suppliers (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) now account for two-thirds of current storage on water [1][6]. - **Venezuela Production Decline**: Venezuela's oil production from the Orinoco Belt decreased by 120 kb/d (23%) in early January, but disruptions are expected to be short-lived due to potential easing of US sanctions [1][2]. Additional Important Insights - **Brent Spot Prices**: Spot Brent is trading at $64-65, which is $4-5 per barrel above January expectations. Disruptions in Kazakhstan production account for about half of this price increase [5]. - **Geopolitical Risk Premium**: The remaining price increase is attributed to a rise in geopolitical risk, particularly related to Iran [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: The options market indicates an 18% probability that Brent futures will expire above $70 per barrel, reflecting ongoing geopolitical concerns [8]. - **Refining Margins**: US diesel margins increased by $8 last week due to cold weather, while average crude tanker freight rates jumped by 35% ($1.4/bbl) over the last two weeks [13][51]. - **Production Forecasts**: The report includes forecasts for new supply projects expected to come online through the summer, with significant contributions from Brazil and Saudi Arabia [25]. Conclusion - The oil industry is currently facing significant disruptions, particularly from Kazakhstan and Venezuela, which are impacting global supply and prices. The geopolitical landscape remains a critical factor influencing market dynamics, with potential implications for future production and stock levels.

Summary of Global Oil Services Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Global Oil Services** industry, with a specific outlook for **2026** highlighted in the report [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The report suggests that the oil services sector may be at an **inflection point**, primarily driven by changing investor perceptions rather than fundamental economic shifts [2][3]. - Investor interest has been historically low, but there are signs of a shift as the sector's valuation improved from **1.3x EV/Revenue** in October 2025 to **1.44x** in December 2025, following positive earnings calls from major companies [3][19]. - **Thirteen relevant themes** have been identified for the oil services sector, with five expected to gain momentum in 2026: 1. Investor interest 2. The Middle East 3. OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods) 4. Exploration 5. Digital advancements [4][23]. Key Themes and Trends - The **Middle East** is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditures, particularly with **Adnoc** launching a **$150 billion** capex plan for 2026-2030 [4][24]. - **OCTG** volumes are anticipated to rise in the second half of 2026, with potential price increases due to steel tariffs and improved pricing power [4][24]. - **Exploration** spending is set to increase, with companies like **Chevron** planning to boost exploration capex by approximately **50%** [4][24]. - The **Digital** sector is highlighted as a growth area, with companies like **SLB** and **Adnoc** investing in AI tools to enhance operational efficiency [4][25]. Financial Strength and Valuation - The oil services industry is reported to be in a stronger financial position compared to previous cycles, with a **CFO-to-revenue ratio** of **15%**, a **net-debt-to-assets ratio** of **14%**, and a **ROIC** of **9%** [26][27]. - Despite a supportive macro environment, investor engagement in the sector has not met expectations, indicating potential for future growth [7][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report lists preferred stocks for 2026: - **Tenaris** (Target Price: €21) - **SLB** (Target Price: $52.3) - **Vallourec** (Target Price: €22.6) - **Saipem** (Target Price: €3.54) - **Subsea 7** (Target Price: NOK240) [5][41]. - Short-term trading opportunities are identified in **Technip Energies**, **GTT**, **Viridien**, **SBM Offshore**, and **Rubis** [5][41]. - Long-term value is seen in **Adnoc Drilling** and **Adnoc L&S** [5][41]. Additional Insights - The oil services sector has largely **decorrelated from oil prices** since 2022, indicating a shift in how the sector's performance is influenced by oil market fluctuations [32][36]. - The **free cash flow** for the industry reached **$26 billion** in 3Q25, surpassing the previous peak of **$15.5 billion** in 2015, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [37][39]. Conclusion - The Global Oil Services industry is poised for potential growth in 2026, driven by improved investor sentiment, strategic capital investments in the Middle East, and advancements in digital technology. The financial health of the sector supports a positive outlook, with several companies identified as key investment opportunities.