Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas IEA Oil Market Update - Initial perspectives. Why worry? Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Irene Himona, Ph.D. +44 20 7762 5353 irene.himona@bernsteinsg.com 12 March 2026 Brian Ho, CFA +852 2123 2615 brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang +852 2123 2629 hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com The IEA has cut its 2026 oil-demand growth forecast by 0.1MMbls/d (+0.7MMbls/d to 104.8MMbls/d), citing the Iran war's impact on air travel and LPG supplies, along wit ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, on global energy markets, inflation, and trade policies, with a focus on oil and gas industries [2][8][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: The conflict in the Middle East has caused energy prices to surge, leading to stagflation risks and market volatility. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of global crude oil and LNG, has been significantly affected [2][10][12]. 2. **US Tariff Policy Changes**: The US Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs was illegal, leading to a 10% global tariff that may increase to 15%. This has created uncertainty regarding tariff refunds and future trade deals, particularly affecting European markets [3][45][49]. 3. **Mixed Economic Signals**: Recent economic data showed solid growth in global manufacturing and services PMIs, but the US labor market remains mixed, with job gains fluctuating and unemployment rates rising to 4.4% [4][81][92]. 4. **Inflation Trends**: Inflation remains a concern, with core inflation in the Eurozone rising to 2.4% and US core PCE at 3%. The increase in energy prices poses hawkish risks for central banks, particularly the ECB [4][70][31]. 5. **China's Economic Strategy**: China has set a lower GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% for 2026, focusing on boosting domestic demand and balancing trade, as indicated in its 15th Five-Year Plan [5][132]. 6. **Market Reactions**: Following the geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties, equity markets have seen a rotation away from technology and financial stocks towards 'real economy' sectors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3][101][102]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact on Emerging Markets**: Asian economies, particularly those heavily reliant on energy imports from the Gulf, are facing increased fiscal pressures due to rising energy costs. Countries like Japan, Korea, and India are particularly vulnerable [2][21]. - **Trade Dynamics**: The US goods trade deficit reached an all-time high in 2025, despite the imposition of tariffs, indicating that tariffs have not effectively reduced the trade deficit [67]. - **Central Bank Divergence**: There is a notable divergence in central bank policies globally, with some central banks in G10 countries expected to raise rates while others, particularly in Latin America, are poised to cut rates [157][165]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events, economic indicators, and market responses.

March 13, 2026 05:17 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan Chemicals: Stock Selection During Periods of Rising Crude Oil Prices l Petrochemical majors (industry view: Attractive): Expecting continued weak petrochemical demand and ethylene utilization rates, but in addition to China's anti-involution policies, there are signs of naphtha cracker downsizing in South Korea; believe the overall mood is improving. Asia petchem prices and spreads unlikely to fall further, but probably lack recovery momentum. Added ...

March 13, 2026 12:33 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America M Idea March FOMC Preview: Oil Shocks: The Fed's Playbook Is Hold or Cut, Not Hike We expect the Fed to remain on hold and retain its easing bias, with the median member still projecting one cut this year and one cut next. The oil price shock should mean higher headline inflation forecasts, but models and past Fedspeak suggest the Fed will look through energy price pressures. Key expectations Michael T Gapen Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen ...

13 March 2026 | 4:13PM EDT Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Hormuz Flows Remain Low Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Filippo Cuscito +44(20)7051-9073 | filippo.cuscito@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decis ...

Flash | Tailwinds – PRC utilities & renewable sector companies likely to see tailwinds from higher Oil & LNG prices in our view include: (i) Upstream gas company ENN Natural Gas – it deals with upstream direct gas sales. It has secured a large amount of LNG supply via take-or-pay contracts at relatively steady unit costs. Moreover, it sells this LNG at spot prices or via forward contracts. 13 Mar 2026 12:44:20 ET │ 10 pages China Renewables & Utility Sector Headwinds & Tailwinds from Higher Oil & LNG Prices ...

Accessible version 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 The Flow Show Oil say hike, Owl say cut Scores on the Doors: oil 69.2%, commods 40.8%, gold 17.4%, intl stocks 3.0%, US$ 1.4%, cash 0.7%, HY -0.4%, govt bonds -0.8%, IG -0.9%, SPX -2.5%, bitcoin -20.0% YTD. Zeitgeist: "I can't work out what's worse, the oil thing or the credit thing." Zeitgeist II: "No jobs, no savings, oil up 50%, shadow banking…if Gen Z don't bail now should be quite the rip." The Biggest Picture: Aug'07 to Jul'08 oil price $70/bbl to $140/b ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 11 Mar 2026 20:20:06 ET │ 29 pages Strikes in the Mideast continued, even as some US statements pointed to an end to the conflict, with timing remaining uncertain. On Monday, President Trump said that the conflict would be over "very soon" (CNBC 3/9/26). Iran rejected calls for a ceasefire, though, saying "there needs to be a permanent end to the war" (NBC 3/8/26). The US today warned Iranian civilians to avoid all port facilities where the Iranian government is conducting military operat ...

11 March 2026 | 9:32PM EDT Commodities Research Oil Comment: Longer Disruption Means Higher Prices Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 11 March 2026 2 c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Filippo Cuscito +44(20)7051-9073 | filippo.cuscito@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 11 Mar 2026 20:20:06 ET │ 29 pages Oil Monitor Amid ~11-16-m b/d Strait of Hormuz blockage, IEA releases 400-m bbls of oil and stands ready to release more Oil prices remain highly volatile, ranging between $84-117 Brent, and ~$93 at time of writing, as the US/Israel-Iran conflict intensifies in its second week. Ships and oil infrastructure are under attack, and producers have shut-in ~6-7-m b/d of output as Strait of Hormuz flows remain heavily disrupted. The IEA announced a record emerg ...