15 September 2025 | 11:14PM EDT Oil Tracker: Russia Production Concerns Support Prices Despite Rising Inventories Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f6 ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 11 September 2025 Oil Markets Weekly Beware the Ides of September Beware the Ides of September Oil rose 2% this week to $67, as renewed geopolitical tensions—stemming from an Israeli airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar on Monday and NATO planes shooting down Russian drones deep inside Poland on Wednesday—reintroduced a modest geopolitical risk premium to the market. Oil received further support from President Trump's latest tariff threats against Russian crude buyers, ...

Global Oil Fundamentals OPEC outlook largely unchanged ab 11 September 2025 Global Research First Read OPEC neutral for both 2025 and 2026 OPEC's September Monthly Oil Market Report, released today, kept the oil market balance broadly unchanged for both 2025 and 2026, with the projected call on OPEC+ crude production steady at 0.4Mb/d for 2025 and 0.6Mb/d for 2026. Demand outlook steady OPEC's demand growth forecasts were left unchanged at at 1.3Mb/d in 2025 (vs. UBSe 0.9Mb/d) and 1.4Mb/d in 2026 (vs. UBSe ...

14 September 2025 | 1:06PM EDT Oil Analyst How to Return to a Bull Market? Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or g ...

ab 10 September 2025 Global Research Weekly Oil Data Stock builds in both crude and products Crude stocks build, bearish vs. consensus Crude oil inventories again climbed by +3.9Mb, bearish vs. both consensus for a -1.0Mb draw and the 5-year average build of +1.5Mb. Yesterday's API data pointed to a more modest build of +1.3Mb. Refinery utilisation increased by 60bps w/w to 94.9% of operable capacity (consensus -60bps w/w). In addition, net crude imports increased by 0.7Mb/d w/w, while production inched hig ...

ab 9 September 2025 Global Research First Read Global Oil Fundamentals EIA's STEO: outlook softening further Bearish update The EIA's September STEO released today signals additional bearish pressure from stronger supply, partly offsetting the upward revision in demand driven by base effects. The agency now projects the oil market to be 0.1Mb/d looser than previously, with surpluses of 1.7Mb/d in 2025 and 1.6Mb/d in 2026 (vs. UBSe 1.1Mb/d both for 2025 and 2026). Within this, the agency expects global oil i ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Oil Market - **Key Players**: OPEC+ members, specifically Saudi Arabia and UAE Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Production Increase**: OPEC+ partners will raise oil production by 137 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in October, following the unwinding of previous cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d) by the end of September [2][4] 2. **Expected Shortfall**: The actual production increase from the second tranche of cuts is expected to be around 40% of the announced 1.65 Mb/d, compared to a 60% realization for the previous cuts [3] 3. **Major Contributors**: The bulk of the production increase is anticipated to come from Saudi Arabia (500 kb/d) and the UAE (144 kb/d) [3] 4. **Market Surplus**: A significant surplus in the oil market is projected, with estimates of 1.2 Mb/d in 4Q25 and 2.4 Mb/d in 1Q26, potentially rising to ~2.7 Mb/d if production increases continue at the current pace [4] 5. **Price Outlook**: The decision to increase production could lead to Brent crude prices falling below $60 per barrel, with a projected price of $62 per barrel in 4Q25/1Q26 [4] Additional Important Information 1. **Contingent Adjustments**: Any further adjustments to production levels will depend on evolving market conditions, indicating a cautious approach by OPEC+ [2] 2. **Historical Volatility**: Oil prices are noted for their unpredictability due to various political, geological, and economic factors, which could affect supply and demand [15] 3. **Analyst Team**: The report is prepared by a team of analysts from UBS, indicating a collaborative effort in the research [5] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call regarding the oil market dynamics, production strategies of OPEC+, and the anticipated impact on oil prices.

Research Associate charlotte.firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425 3866 September 8, 2025 12:29 PM GMT RESEARCH Commodities The Oil Manual – Chartbook: >200 Charts that Decode the Oil Market Source: Shutterstock 8 Sept 2025 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Martijn Rats, CFA Equity Analyst & Commodities Strategist martijn.rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425 6618 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Charlotte Firkins Morgan Stanley & Co. International ...

Global Markets Strategy 05 September 2025 J P M O R G A N Risk premium out, storage premium in Oil Markets Weekly Brent prices have held within a tight range of $65 to $69 for most of August, with both crude and regional product markets staying firmly in backwardation across the curve reflecting enduring physical tightness in a market that was expected to be overwhelmed by supply at this time of year. This resilience challenges our call that oil prices will average $63 in the second half of 2025 and exit th ...

7 September 2025 | 8:21PM EDT Oil Analyst OPEC+ Announces Small Supply Increase; China Stocks Absorb Slightly Larger Surplus; Keeping Price Forecast Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC This report is intended for distribution to GS institutional clients only. Investors should consider this report as ...