13 November 2025 | 2:12PM EST Commodities Research ENERGY TOMORROW Global Oil Demand to Grow Through 2040 Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs Energy Tomorrow Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Goldman S ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Commodities The Oil Manual – Chartbook: >200 Charts that Decode the Oil Market M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Martijn Rats, CFA Equity Analyst & Commodity Strategist martijn.rats@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425 6618 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Charlotte Firkins Commodity Strategist charlotte.firkins@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425 3866 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Amy Gower Commodity Strategist amy.gowe ...

November 3, 2025 02:49 PM GMT North American Midstream & Renewable Energy Infrastructure | North America How Crude Oil Prices Influence the Direction of Midstream Stocks (Company Appendix) This report analyzes the historical relationship between WTI and midstream sector performance. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: WTI vs. TRGP/AMNA 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1/1/2021 1/1/2022 1/1/2023 1/1/2024 1/1/2025 WTI TRGP/AMNA Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research relations ...

Summary of OPEC+ Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas - **Key Organization**: OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) Core Points and Arguments 1. **Production Quota Adjustments**: OPEC+ announced a pause in production quota hikes for the first quarter of 2026, maintaining a cautious approach due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] 2. **Recent Quota Increases**: The Group-of-8 within OPEC+ had previously increased production quotas by 137 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) for December, reversing voluntary cuts made in April 2023, totaling 1.65 million barrels per day (mb/d) [1][11] 3. **Price Forecast Adjustments**: Following OPEC's announcement and recent sanctions, the price forecast for Brent crude was modestly increased from $57.5 to $60 per barrel for the first half of 2026 [5][15] 4. **Market Surplus Expectations**: A significant surplus in the oil market is anticipated in 2026, particularly in the first half, with expectations of price softening without OPEC intervention [15][16] 5. **Production Estimates Variability**: The range of estimates for OPEC production has widened significantly since early 2023, now regularly exceeding 2.5 mb/d, indicating measurement challenges [3][10] 6. **Discrepancy Between Quota and Production**: There is a notable gap between OPEC's production quotas and actual production, with estimates suggesting only a 0.5 mb/d increase in production despite a 2.6 mb/d quota increase from March to October [11][12] 7. **Future Production Outlook**: It is expected that OPEC production growth will be limited in 2026 due to diminished spare capacity, with demand growth gradually reducing the surplus by the second half of 2027 [16][17] Additional Important Insights 1. **OPEC's Proactive Stance**: The decision to pause quota hikes signals that OPEC is responsive to market conditions, countering previous perceptions of an 'auto-pilot' approach [14] 2. **Impact of Sanctions**: Recent sanctions against Russian oil assets are expected to increase demand for Brent-linked crudes, contributing to the upward price adjustment [15] 3. **Long-term Price Projections**: Brent prices are projected to rise to $65 per barrel by the second half of 2027 as the market gradually returns to balance [17] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the OPEC+ conference call, highlighting the organization's strategic decisions and market implications.

Summary of Key Points from the Oil Data Digest Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically detailing oil inventory data across various regions including the US, Japan, Europe, Singapore, and Fujairah. Core Insights and Arguments - **Total Oil Inventories**: Total oil inventories decreased by 27.4 million barrels (mln bbls) last week, with crude stocks down by 6.7 mln bbls and refined product stocks down by 20.7 mln bbls, indicating a significant draw across all regions [2][3][4][6]. - **Regional Breakdown**: - **US**: Crude stocks drew by 6.3 mln bbls, with a notable drop in gasoline stocks by 5.9 mln bbls and middle distillate stocks by 3.4 mln bbls [6][75][77]. - **Japan**: Total oil stocks decreased by 2.7 mln bbls, with crude stocks contributing to this draw [32][4]. - **Europe**: Total oil stocks saw a minor draw of 0.4 mln bbls [34]. - **Singapore**: Product inventories decreased by 4.8 mln bbls [27]. - **Fujairah**: Product inventories drew by 2.3 mln bbls [25]. Additional Important Information - **Refinery Operations**: US refinery runs fell by 510 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) week-over-week, primarily due to unplanned outages in key refineries [75][83]. - **Crude Production**: US crude production increased slightly by 20 kbpd, averaging 13.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) [89]. - **Import and Export Trends**: Crude imports dropped by 0.9 mbpd while exports rose by 0.2 mbpd, contributing to the overall draw in crude inventories [90][76]. - **Historical Context**: The current inventory levels for gasoline and middle distillates are now below the levels seen in 2024 for the same period, indicating tighter supply conditions [77]. Summary Tables - **Week-Over-Week Changes**: A summary table indicates significant draws in crude and refined products across various regions, with total crude stocks down by 6.736 mln bbls and refined products down by 20.668 mln bbls [6][7][78]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the oil inventory report, highlighting trends and changes in the oil market that could impact investment decisions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the impact of new sanctions on Russia's oil sector and the subsequent effects on oil prices and supply dynamics [1][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Rally**: Oil prices experienced a significant rally following the announcement of sanctions against major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are responsible for approximately 3.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil exports [11][12]. - **Supply Disruption Estimates**: The Brent forward curve now reflects a supply disruption of approximately 184 million barrels, indicating a need for commercial OECD stocks to decline by about 1 mb/d to align with historical averages [3][20][31]. - **OECD Inventory Trends**: Current commercial OECD inventories are trending upwards by about 0.6 mb/d over the last six months, suggesting that a significant reversal in inventory levels is unlikely without substantial supply disruptions [10][28][31]. - **Historical Context**: Previous sanctions have shown that the oil market often rallies on anticipated supply losses, but actual export volumes tend to be less affected than initially expected due to rerouting and workarounds [14][31]. - **Demand Dynamics**: There are indications that underlying demand for oil is stronger than consensus estimates, with expectations of a gradual rebalancing of the oil market from the second half of 2026 onwards [32]. Additional Important Insights - **Chinese and Indian Buyers**: Reports indicate that Chinese state oil majors and Indian refiners are planning to suspend purchases of Russian oil, which could lead to a decline in overall Russian oil exports [13]. - **Global Inventory Levels**: Total global oil inventories have increased by 357 million barrels over the last six months, with a significant portion attributed to oil-on-water from countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela [26][28]. - **Price Forecasts**: Brent price forecasts remain unchanged, with expectations for the Brent spot price to hover in the high $50s for a period before potentially increasing as the market rebalances [6][31][32]. Conclusion - The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by geopolitical factors, supply chain dynamics, and historical precedents. The potential for significant supply disruptions due to sanctions on Russian oil is acknowledged, but historical data suggests that the actual impact may be less severe than anticipated. The market is expected to gradually rebalance, with price forecasts reflecting a cautious outlook in the near term [31][32].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the oil industry, specifically the impact of new US sanctions on Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are the largest in Russia [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Reaction**: Brent and WTI oil prices increased by 5% to $66 and $62 respectively following the announcement of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for 45% of Russia's oil exports [1][4][8]. 2. **Export Volumes**: Rosneft and Lukoil have exported approximately 3.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-to-date, with crude oil making up 2.2 mb/d of this total [1][8][9]. 3. **Supply-Demand Balance**: The company maintains its supply-demand balance and oil price forecast, projecting Brent/WTI prices to decline to averages of $56/52 by 2026. This forecast assumes a reduction in Russian liquids production by 0.6 mb/d by 2026 compared to 2024 levels [1][12][15]. 4. **Potential Upside Risks**: The sanctions could lead to additional upside risks to oil prices, particularly if Russian supply decreases significantly. In scenarios where Russian supply falls by 1.5 mb/d, Brent prices could peak at nearly $85 before averaging $73 in 2026 [1][27][30]. 5. **Factors Mitigating Impact**: The potential impact of sanctions on global oil imports may be limited due to: - Possible exemptions for importers [15][17]. - Continued purchases of discounted Russian oil [15][17]. - Reorganization of trade networks following previous sanctions [15][18]. - Increased production from OPEC to stabilize the market [15][18]. 6. **Temporary Nature of Reductions**: The reduction in Russian oil purchases may be temporary if peace negotiations progress or if energy affordability becomes a higher priority for Western policymakers [1][22][24]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Pricing Adjustments**: The crude market has adjusted to reflect a nearly 60 percentage point increase in the likelihood of a significant disruption in Russian oil supply [2][34]. 2. **Production Estimates**: Rosneft and Lukoil's total liquids production is estimated at approximately 4.6 mb/d year-to-date, indicating a significant portion of their output is still operational despite sanctions [11][12]. 3. **Regional Production Distribution**: About 70% of the combined crude volumes from Rosneft and Lukoil are produced in regions with both domestic and export outlets, which may help mitigate the impact of sanctions [36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of US sanctions on Russian oil producers and the broader oil market dynamics.

Summary of Weekly Oil Data Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically crude oil and refined products in the United States. Key Points Crude Oil Inventory and Production - Crude oil inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels (Mb), contrasting with the consensus expectation of an increase of 1.2 Mb and the 5-year average increase of 1.6 Mb [1] - API data indicated a larger draw of 3.0 Mb [1] - Crude production remained stable at 13.6 million barrels per day (Mb/d) [1] - Refinery utilization increased by 290 basis points week-over-week (w/w) to 88.6% of operable capacity, against a consensus expectation of a decrease of 40 basis points [1] Product Demand and Consumption - Implied oil products consumption rose by 0.3 Mb/d w/w to 20.0 Mb/d, primarily driven by propane, which increased by 0.4 Mb/d [2] - Total demand over a 4-week average remained flat at 20.5 Mb/d [2] Product Inventories - Total product inventories fell by 3.2 Mb to 862 Mb, led by a decrease in gasoline inventories by 2.1 Mb, which was larger than the consensus decrease of 0.8 Mb [3] - Jet fuel and distillate inventories also decreased by 1.5 Mb each, while gains were seen in "Others" (+1.3 Mb), propane (+0.8 Mb), and fuel oil (+0.5 Mb) [3] Detailed Weekly Petroleum Status Report - Crude oil production was reported at 13,629 kb/d, with a slight decrease of 7 kb/d [4] - Crude oil imports increased by 393 kb/d to 5,918 kb/d [4] - Exports of crude oil decreased by 263 kb/d to 4,203 kb/d [4] - Total crude oil stocks were reported at 422.8 Mb, down by 1.0 Mb [4] - Gasoline production increased by 134 kb/d to 9,612 kb/d, while gasoline stocks decreased by 2.1 Mb to 216.7 Mb [4] - Middle distillate production rose by 40 kb/d to 4,632 kb/d, with stocks down by 1.5 Mb to 115.6 Mb [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates a bullish sentiment in the crude oil market due to the unexpected draw in inventories and increased refinery utilization [1][4] - The overall demand for oil products remains stable, with fluctuations in specific categories such as propane and distillates [2][3] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring both inventory levels and production rates to gauge market conditions and potential investment opportunities in the oil sector [1][2][3] - The data suggests that while there are fluctuations in specific product demands, the overall market remains resilient, indicating potential stability in oil prices moving forward [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the weekly oil report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the oil industry in the United States.

Summary of Global Oil Services Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the **Global Oil Services** industry, focusing on the outlook for 2H25 and FY26, highlighting both positive and negative signals in the market [1][2]. Key Insights 1. **Financial Strength**: The industry is currently in a strong financial position, although it is trading at historically low multiples. Many investors have not capitalized on the O&G capex recovery from 2022-24 [1][2]. 2. **Conflicting Signals**: There are concerns regarding oil supply and price stability, with questions about whether oil will remain oversupplied and if prices might decline. Additionally, there are indications of weakening International/Offshore activity, which could be exacerbated by high consensus expectations [1][2]. 3. **US Market Activity**: The Dallas Fed survey indicates a rapid deterioration in US activity expected in 4Q25, despite a stabilizing rig count. Current consensus expectations for the US market are low [1][2]. 4. **Optimism from Key Players**: Companies like GTT and Viridien express optimism ahead of 3Q25, contrasting with the overall cautious sentiment [1][2]. Regional Activity Recovery 1. **Diverging Opinions**: There are differing views on whether North America or international markets will lead the recovery. SLB suggests North America will remain constrained due to economic challenges, while Halliburton believes it is positioned for recovery [3][4]. 2. **Investment Implications**: The outlook for 2026-27 is more positive than generally perceived, with potential catalysts for the sector. The report suggests that 4Q25 may represent a low point for North America, and given the sector's low valuation (approximately 1.3x EV/Revenue), there is significant upside potential for various stocks [4][6]. Preferred Investment Calls - **Next 6 Months**: GTT (Target Price €193), Viridien (Target Price €94), SLB (Target Price $47.60) - **Next 12 Months**: SBM (Target Price €24), Rubis (Target Price €38.7), Vallourec (Target Price €22.6), Tenaris (Target Price €21) - **Next 18 Months**: Adnoc Drilling (Target Price AED6.76), Saipem (Target Price €3.54), Subsea (Target Price NOK240) - Notably, GTT, SBM, and Rubis are largely de-correlated from oil prices [6]. Conclusion - The Global Oil Services industry is at a critical juncture with mixed signals regarding future activity and investment opportunities. The financial strength of the sector, combined with low valuations, presents potential upside for select stocks, while regional disparities in recovery expectations highlight the complexity of the market landscape [1][4][6].

Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global oil market, particularly the dynamics of supply and demand, OPEC+ production, and price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is expected to move towards a larger surplus through 1Q26 due to seasonally weak demand and robust supply, with the IEA forecasting a 4Q25 surplus of 3.6 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and the EIA forecasting 2.6 Mb/d [2][3] - The market is projected to be oversupplied by 1.5 Mb/d in 4Q25, 2.4 Mb/d in 1Q26, and 1.7 Mb/d on average in 2026, indicating a looser market than previously anticipated [2][18] OPEC+ Production - OPEC+ output increased by 880 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) month-over-month in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 550 kb/d to this increase [5][90] - The total increase from the eight countries adhering to voluntary cuts was 920 kb/d, significantly above the planned increase of 272 kb/d [5][90] - OPEC+ supply growth is projected at 1.2 Mb/d for 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d for 2026, with expectations of a full unwinding of the 1.65 Mb/d voluntary cuts by September 2026 [5][94] Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth - Non-OPEC+ supply growth was stronger than expected in 3Q25, with the EIA raising its forecasts to 1.8 Mb/d for 2025 and 1.0 Mb/d for 2026 [4][39] - US rig activity showed a slight rebound, supporting crude output stability, with US supply growth revised up to 0.6 Mb/d for 2025 [4][49] Demand Forecasts - Demand growth estimates were mixed, with the IEA lowering its 2025 growth estimate to 0.7 Mb/d, while the EIA raised it to 1.1 Mb/d [3][32] - UBS maintains its demand growth forecasts at 0.9 Mb/d for 2025 and 1.1 Mb/d for 2026, reflecting weaker-than-expected actuals in 3Q25 [27][60] Price Forecasts - Brent prices are expected to remain in the low-$60s in the near term, with potential upside scenarios driven by supply disruptions, particularly in Russia, which could lift prices back into the $70/bbl range [9][10] - Conversely, downside scenarios could see Brent prices drop below $60/bbl due to ongoing OPEC+ production increases and a potential global economic slowdown [11][12] Inventory Trends - Global inventories have been on an upward trajectory, with an increase of approximately 340 million barrels between January and September 2025, corresponding to an average of 1.2 Mb/d [67] - The IEA projects an accelerated rate of inventory build-up, with global stocks expected to increase at a pace of 1.5 Mb/d in 4Q25 [67] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran and Russia, have supported oil prices, but the market is under greater pressure from growing excess supply [56][65] - The ongoing tariff dispute between the US and China poses uncertainties for global economic growth, which could impact oil demand [60][63] Additional Insights - The impact of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to slow down gasoline demand growth over time, with a projected replacement of 4.3 Mb/d of oil for passenger vehicles globally by 2030 [75] - US gasoline demand in 3Q25 was approximately 1% lower than the previous year, indicating a potential shift in consumption patterns [76] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global oil market.