Chinese refinery runs reached a 17-month high in September, driven by higher utilisation rates from independent refineries. State-owned refinery utilisation reached a 23-month high in August, returning to levels last seen in September 2023. Healthy domestic margins and expectations of peak summer demand incentivised state refineries to raise run rates and maintain them into September. Independent refinery utilisation then reached an 8-month high in September, as stronger refining margins for sanctioned crud ...

ab Global Research 21 October 2025 Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot Larger surplus as OPEC+ keeps ramping up Heavy surplus ahead; missing bbls slightly mitigate the outlook Oil prices have come down under renewed pressure lately as the global oil market moves towards a larger surplus through 1Q26 due to seasonally weak demand alongside robust supply. Agency updates confirmed this trend this month. Updates from the IEA and EIA were bearish, with only OPEC holding its view unchanged. The IEA forecasts ...

20 October 2025 | 10:44PM EDT Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Stock Builds Start to Show in OECD The Brent crude price declined by nearly $3/bbl (or 4%) over the last week as the long-anticipated global surplus has started to show not only in high frequency satellite data but also in IEA and DOE realized stocks data. Upside revisions to IEA stocks lifted our October OECD commercial stocks nowcast by 33mb — worth about -$2/bbl on Brent deferred timespreads. The DoE reported a third consecutive week of buil ...

October 17, 2025 04:20 PM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe M Idea A Puzzle at the Heart of the Oil Market Across a broad range of data providers, estimates of OPEC production have diverged sharply this year. Our suspicion, however, is that the higher ones are likely more accurate. In this note, we discuss what this might mean for spare capacity, demand and the pace at which the market might rebalance. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: The range of estimates for OPEC production has widened sharply since early 2023, and no ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly crude oil and petroleum products, with insights into market dynamics and seasonal impacts on demand and supply [1][2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Crude Oil Fundamentals**: Despite softer fundamentals, OPEC+'s production return is impacting crude oil prices, with inventories building and Brent crude prices pressured towards $60/bbl [1][2]. 2. **OECD Inventories**: OECD commercial crude oil inventories are building, with a preliminary monthly stock increase of over 10 million barrels, contributing to downward pressure on Brent prices [2]. 3. **Dangote Refinery Issues**: Uncertainties surrounding Nigeria's Dangote refinery operations are affecting gasoline supply, with a significant reduction in gasoline output due to operational challenges [3][20]. 4. **Gasoil Crack Spreads**: Gasoil crack spreads are currently wide due to low stocks, but are expected to moderate in 2026 as refinery production strengthens and demand flattens [4][24]. 5. **Winter Demand Projections**: Potential for wider gasoil cracks this winter exists due to the possibility of a cold winter and geopolitical tensions, which could temporarily boost demand for heating fuels [5][25]. 6. **Kerosene Demand**: Demand for kerosene is expected to moderate, but a cold winter in East Asia could lead to price increases due to its use as a heating fuel [6][39]. 7. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Recent de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, may reduce the price premium on oil, impacting market dynamics [10][12]. 8. **Managed Money Positioning**: Managed money positioning in Brent and WTI is at its second lowest in the last decade, indicating potential for a price rebound if geopolitical tensions escalate or if winter demand spikes [16][18]. 9. **Price Forecasts**: The base case price forecast for Brent is $63/bbl in 4Q25 and $60/bbl in 1Q26, with a bear case suggesting lower averages of $55/bbl and $50/bbl respectively [17]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Refinery Margins**: Refining margins have been climbing throughout the year, indicating improved profitability for refiners [27][29]. 2. **Weather Analysis**: The report includes a weather analysis suggesting a milder winter in the US, colder conditions in East Asia, and normal temperatures in Europe, which could influence energy demand [7][51]. 3. **La Niña Impact**: NOAA forecasts a potential La Niña winter, which typically brings colder conditions to Northeast Asia and warmer, drier weather to the southern US [52][55]. 4. **Stockpiling Trends**: China's oil purchases have slowed, potentially allowing the market to front-run its purchases, which could eventually support oil prices again [12][38]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Oil Market - **Key Focus**: Oil price forecasts, OPEC+ production dynamics, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand balance Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Forecasts**: - Brent price forecast raised slightly to $63/bbl for 4Q25, reflecting better-than-expected performance in 3Q25 due to geopolitical risks and resilient demand [2][18] - 2026 Brent forecast cut by $1 to $64/bbl average, with long-term projections unchanged at $70 for 2027 and $75 for 2028 [2][18] 2. **Supply-Demand Balance**: - Anticipated surplus of 1.2Mb/d in 2025 and 1.5Mb/d in 2026, driven by increased OPEC+ supply [3][34] - Non-OPEC supply growth robust at 1.2Mb/d in 2025, slowing to 0.5Mb/d in 2026, with significant contributions from Brazil, Norway, and Canada [3][85] 3. **OPEC+ Dynamics**: - OPEC+ is expected to fully unwind 1.65Mb/d of voluntary cuts by September 2026, but only ~40% of this is likely to materialize due to limited spare capacity [3][52] - The group has resumed oil flows via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, initially facilitating 180-190kb/d, expected to rise to 230kb/d [54] 4. **Geopolitical Risks**: - Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran and Russia, could impact oil prices significantly, with potential for Brent prices to rise into the $70s/bbl if disruptions occur [4][20] - Ongoing sanctions on Iran and infrastructure vulnerabilities in Russia are critical factors to monitor [78] 5. **Market Sentiment**: - Current market sentiment remains bearish due to OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand declines, despite geopolitical support [34][41] - The forward curve indicates a market not dramatically looser, suggesting that lower prices could drive supply down, leading to a healthier market backdrop [22] Additional Important Insights 1. **Demand Growth**: - Global oil demand growth estimates slightly adjusted to 0.9Mb/d for 2025 and 1.1Mb/d for 2026, with stronger OECD demand but muted signals from non-OECD regions [41][42] - Chinese demand expected to grow by 0.1Mb/d in 2025 and 0.3Mb/d in 2026, while Indian demand tracking softer at ~0.1Mb/d for both years [42] 2. **Potential Upside and Downside Risks**: - Upside risks include firmer global economic growth and better OPEC+ compliance, while downside risks involve a global economic slowdown and increased OPEC+ production [30] - A recession could lead to aggressive market share pursuits by OPEC+, potentially driving prices below $50/bbl [10] 3. **Inventory Trends**: - Global observed inventories have been rising, with a projected build of 1.3Mb/d in 4Q, reaching ~8,030Mb by year-end [101] 4. **US Production Outlook**: - US liquids growth forecasted at 0.5Mb/d in 2025, with a slight decline of 0.1Mb/d in 2026 due to lower activity levels [8][85] - The US remains a key variable, with rig activity influenced by WTI pricing and efficiency gains [85] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the oil market's dynamics, price forecasts, and the implications of geopolitical and economic factors on supply and demand.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically analyzing the current state of oil prices and market dynamics affecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices [4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Forecasts**: The Brent and WTI prices have fallen to forecasts of $63 and $59 per barrel respectively for December 2025, indicating a bearish outlook for oil prices [4][7]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The decline in oil prices is attributed to rising US-China trade tensions, geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East, and increasing global visible inventories, which have built by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-to-date (YTD) [4][7]. - OECD commercial inventories have also increased by 0.2 mb/d YTD, suggesting a cooling demand from China [4][7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - The recommendation to close the three-way strategy of buying oil put spreads and selling calls is based on the expectation of further declines in oil prices through 2026 [4][5]. - Investors are advised to position for lower timespreads due to anticipated significant builds in OECD commercial stocks in November and January [4][5]. - Oil producers are encouraged to buy oil put spreads rather than those funded by selling calls, as the risks to the price forecast are two-sided, with a potential recession being a key downside risk [4][5]. Additional Important Information - **Trade Performance**: The report includes a performance summary of trades closed since 2024, highlighting various strategies and their respective profits or losses [5]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The report notes a pause in drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, which has eased market concerns regarding Russian supply [4][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the oil market is cautious, with expectations of further price declines influenced by both supply increases and demand cooling [4][7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Summary of the Oil Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the oil industry, particularly the dynamics surrounding OPEC+ production decisions and global oil supply and demand forecasts. Key Points and Arguments OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to raise required production by 0.14 million barrels per day (mb/d) for November, consistent with previous expectations [2][10] - The group remains focused on market conditions, indicating a cautious approach to production increases [10] Price Forecasts - The Brent/WTI price forecast remains unchanged at $64/$60 for Q4 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026 [2][18] - The forecast suggests that strong supply will likely lead to lower oil prices over the next year [18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A global oil surplus is expected to average 2.0 mb/d from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, driven by a 4.1 mb/d increase in global supply [2][21] - Global demand growth has been nudged up to 1.0 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026, reflecting stronger demand forecasts [35] Global Supply Changes - The increase in global supply is attributed to record-high US crude and natural gas liquids (NGL) production, alongside an upgrade in Iraq's supply, which offsets a downgrade in Russian production [26][30] - US crude and NGL supply reached all-time highs in July 2025, with a smaller expected decline of 0.3 mb/d by December 2026 [27] OECD Stock Builds - OECD commercial stocks are expected to absorb over 30% of the global builds in 2025-2026, with a projected increase of 0.65 mb/d [45] - The analysis indicates that the pace of builds in global stocks is accelerating, which is expected to impact oil prices negatively [51] Price Risk Assessment - Risks to the price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside, particularly due to potential declines in Russian production [56][61] - Scenarios include a potential drop in Russian supply to 8.5 mb/d by December 2026, which could raise Brent/WTI prices to $70/$66 [57] Conclusion - The analysis suggests that while the oil market is currently stable, various factors, including OPEC+ production decisions, global supply dynamics, and geopolitical risks, could significantly influence future price movements and market conditions [56][61] Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global visible stock builds, which have accelerated recently, indicating potential shifts in supply-demand balance [4][12] - The analysis also emphasizes the role of geopolitical factors, particularly concerning Russian production and its impact on global oil prices [30][34]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Oil Market - **Key Players**: OPEC+ members, specifically Saudi Arabia and UAE Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Production Adjustments**: OPEC+ partners will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in November, maintaining the same pace as October, despite ongoing voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day (Mb/d) [1][2] 2. **Seasonality Impact**: The expected production increase is modest and counter-seasonal, as it occurs during a period of typically lower demand. The bulk of the increase is anticipated to come from Saudi Arabia (500 kb/d) and the UAE (144 kb/d) [2] 3. **Price Outlook**: Near-term risks for oil prices remain to the downside, with projections suggesting Brent crude could fall below $60 per barrel if supply continues to outpace demand, potentially reaching $62 per barrel in 4Q25/1Q26 [3] 4. **Supply Surplus**: If OPEC+ maintains current production levels, a surplus of approximately 2.7 Mb/d could develop in 1Q26, which would further pressure prices [3] 5. **Long-term Implications**: The current production decisions may indicate limited spare capacity within OPEC+, which could help stabilize prices in the long run by curbing non-OPEC supply growth [3] Additional Important Information - **Next Meeting**: The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for November 2, where further adjustments to production may be discussed [1] - **Market Reactions**: Initial market reactions to the production increase may be slightly positive, but the overall sentiment remains cautious due to potential supply disruptions and market conditions [3]

Summary of the Oil Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the oil industry, particularly the dynamics surrounding OPEC+ production decisions and global oil supply and demand forecasts. Key Points and Arguments 1. **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ has decided to raise required production by 0.14 million barrels per day (mb/d) for November, consistent with previous expectations, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [2][10][36]. 2. **Price Forecasts**: The Brent/WTI price forecast remains unchanged at $64/$60 for Q4 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, reflecting stable expectations despite market fluctuations [2][18][19]. 3. **Supply Surplus Expectations**: A global oil surplus is anticipated to average 2.0 mb/d from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, driven by strong supply growth, particularly from the US and Iraq, despite a downgrade in Russian production [2][21][30]. 4. **Global Supply Growth**: Global oil supply is expected to rise by 4.1 mb/d (4%) in 2025, with OPEC+ contributing nearly half of this growth, alongside significant increases from Brazil [2][23][26]. 5. **OECD Stock Absorption**: OECD commercial stocks are projected to absorb over 30% of the global builds in 2025-2026, with an increase of 0.65 mb/d expected as high volumes of oil in transit arrive [2][45][48]. 6. **Price Dynamics**: The analysis predicts a decline in oil prices as OECD inventories rise, with Brent prices expected to fall to the low $50s by the end of 2026 [51][56]. 7. **Risks to Forecast**: The risks to the price forecast are two-sided but skewed to the upside, particularly due to potential declines in Russian production and changes in global spare capacity [7][56][61]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Demand Growth**: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.0 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, an increase from previous estimates of 0.9 mb/d, influenced by stronger economic forecasts for China and the US [35]. 2. **Russia's Production Challenges**: Russian oil production is projected to decline to 8.5 mb/d by December 2026, influenced by economic pressures and operational challenges, which could significantly impact global oil prices [30][57][61]. 3. **Market Conditions**: The report emphasizes that the current market conditions are healthy, with low oil inventories, which supports the rationale behind OPEC+'s cautious production adjustments [36][41]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical factors influencing production decisions.