26 August 2025 | 8:18PM EDT Oil Analyst Stress Testing Our Price Forecast Amidst Stable OECD Stocks Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the ...

August 21, 2025 06:40 PM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe Heading for the Most- Anticipated Surplus The oil market is heading for a surplus in coming quarters that is both unusually large but also unusually well-anticipated by now. The former suggests prices will likely weaken; the latter suggests this is unlikely to turn into a disorderly sell-off. We stick with our $60 Brent forecast by 1Q. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Refinery crude runs are currently at their highest level for several quarters to come | M August ...

Accessible version Global Energy Weekly Oil market surplus grows Forward oil balances may lead to lower Brent in 2H25 In this note we update our oil balances to reflect growing OPEC+ supplies against a backdrop of better-than-expected demand conditions. Net, we now project an average surplus of 890k b/d in the 12 months from July 2025 through June 2026. This surplus should result in global oil inventory builds of around 100mn barrels over the same window if historical patterns are maintained. As such we rei ...

Summary of Key Points from the Oil Data Digest Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically oil inventory data across various regions including the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, and Fujairah. Core Insights and Arguments - **Total Oil Inventories**: Total oil inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels (mln bbls) last week, with crude stocks rising by 3.8 mln bbls primarily due to a build in the US [1][2][35]. - **Refined Product Stocks**: Refined product stocks decreased by 2.0 mln bbls, driven by draws in the US and Fujairah [3][4][35]. - **Regional Breakdown**: - **US**: Crude stocks built by 3.0 mln bbls, with a total crude build of 3.3 mln bbls when including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [78][90]. - **Europe**: Total oil stocks increased by 0.7 mln bbls [31][35]. - **Fujairah**: Product inventories decreased by 1.6 mln bbls week-over-week (WoW) [29][35]. - **Singapore**: Product inventories increased by 0.2 mln bbls [33][35]. - **Distillate and Gasoline Stocks**: Distillate stocks saw a marginal build, while gasoline stocks experienced a draw of 0.8 mln bbls, consistent with seasonal trends [80][81]. Additional Important Information - **Crude Production and Imports**: US crude production rose by 40 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) to approximately 13.3 million barrels per day (mbpd). Crude imports increased by 1 mbpd, contributing to the build in crude stocks [78][90]. - **Refinery Operations**: Refinery runs increased by 60 kbpd, although overall utilization rates fell by 0.5 percentage points (pp) to 96.4% [79][88]. - **Historical Context**: The current inventory levels are compared to the 10-year average, indicating significant deviations in both crude and refined product stocks [6][35]. Conclusion - The oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of inventory builds and draws across different regions, with significant implications for supply dynamics and pricing. The data suggests a robust supply response in the US, while other regions show varied trends in inventory levels.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil market dynamics, particularly in relation to the geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for global oil prices and supply chains. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Tensions**: President Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia to cease hostilities in Ukraine from 50 days to 10 days, indicating a more aggressive stance against Russia [2][6][10]. 2. **Potential Sanctions**: Trump has threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, including China, India, and Brazil, if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire by September 2 [2][6][10]. 3. **Oil Price Projections**: If both Russia and the US take action, oil prices could spike significantly due to supply restrictions. Conversely, if no action is taken, prices are expected to decline to $60 per barrel by year-end [4][6][10]. 4. **Impact of Sanctions on Oil Exports**: India may comply with US sanctions, risking up to 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil exports, while China has indicated it will maintain its current purchasing levels [6][10][21]. 5. **OPEC's Capacity**: OPEC's spare capacity is insufficient to offset potential losses from Russian oil exports, which could lead to higher oil prices [6][10][20]. 6. **Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)**: Russia may respond to sanctions by closing the CPC pipeline, which exports 1.5-1.6 mbd of Kazakh crude, significantly impacting global oil supply [12][23][28]. 7. **China's Position**: China has resisted US pressure to reduce its oil purchases from Russia, indicating a strategic alignment with Moscow [21][23]. 8. **India's Oil Imports**: India currently imports around 1.8 mbd of Russian crude, which constitutes about 35% of its total crude imports, a significant increase from 2% pre-war [21][23]. 9. **Global Supply Dynamics**: Global oil supply is expected to rise by about 1 mbd by year-end, but this increase is uncertain due to geopolitical factors and OPEC's relationship with Russia [10][20]. Additional Important Content 1. **Market Volatility**: The current geopolitical landscape suggests that any military escalation could lead to significant volatility in oil prices, with potential spikes if supply is restricted [4][10][11]. 2. **Long-term Supply Outlook**: Projections indicate that while short-term supply may increase, long-term sustainability remains a concern, particularly with geopolitical tensions affecting production decisions [20][22][36]. 3. **US Consumer Prices**: High oil prices could deter Trump from taking drastic actions, as they may adversely affect US consumer prices, which he has promised to lower [10][11][12]. 4. **Regulatory Influence**: Russia's regulatory authority over the CPC has been highlighted as a potential tool for retaliating against Western sanctions, showcasing the geopolitical leverage in oil exports [23][26][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications for the oil market as discussed in the conference call, reflecting the interplay between geopolitical actions and market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call on China Oil & Gas Equities Industry Overview - The oil and gas sector in China is facing significant challenges due to falling international crude oil prices and intense competition in refined oil and petrochemical markets [2][3][15]. Key Companies Discussed Sinopec - Issued a profit warning on July 31, projecting 1H25 net income (excluding extraordinary items) between RMB20.1-21.6 billion, indicating a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7% for 1H25 [2][15]. - Expected 2Q25 net income between RMB6.8-8.3 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 52-61% [2][15]. - The decline is attributed to lower international crude oil prices and competitive pressures in the market [2][15]. - Cash flows are under pressure, raising concerns about dividend distribution [4][15]. PetroChina - Expected to report a net profit of RMB33.4 billion for 2Q25, down 22% year-on-year, primarily due to a 20% decline in Brent oil prices [9][13]. - The natural gas business is expected to show resilience, with profit growth from increased gas prices for downstream utilities [9][10]. - Estimated free cash flow (FCF) yield of approximately 12% for 2026, the highest among peers [4][9]. - Investment thesis remains positive, with a Buy rating maintained [3][4]. CNOOC - Projected net profit of RMB31 billion for 2Q25, a decline of 23% year-on-year, also due to the 20% drop in Brent oil prices [13][14]. - Total oil and gas production expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, with oil production up 5% and natural gas production up 10% [13][14]. - CNOOC's competitive production costs are expected to mitigate some earnings impact from lower oil prices [3][4]. Financial Metrics and Estimates - **Sinopec**: - Revenue estimates for 2025 are revised to RMB2,718 billion, with net income expected to be RMB39 billion [37]. - EBIT for 2025 is estimated at RMB60 billion, reflecting a 6% decline from previous estimates [37]. - **PetroChina**: - Revenue estimates for 2025 revised to RMB2,528 billion, with net income projected at RMB147 billion [29]. - EBIT for 2025 is estimated at RMB210 billion, a 3% increase from previous estimates [29]. - **CNOOC**: - Revenue estimates for 2025 revised to RMB394 billion, with net income projected at RMB126 billion [34]. - EBIT for 2025 is estimated at RMB169 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [34]. Investment Ratings - **PetroChina**: Buy rating maintained, with target prices raised to RMB11.00 for A-shares and HKD8.50 for H-shares, indicating upside potential of 29.3% and 14.6% respectively [58]. - **CNOOC**: Buy rating maintained, with target prices raised to RMB31.80 for A-shares and HKD21.70 for H-shares, indicating upside potential of 22.6% and 16.3% respectively [58]. - **Sinopec**: Hold rating maintained, with target prices set at RMB5.50 for A-shares and HKD4.40 for H-shares, indicating a slight downside risk [58]. Risks and Considerations - Risks for all companies include potential sharp declines in oil prices, competition pressures, and regulatory changes affecting the energy sector [3][4][58]. - Sinopec faces the highest risk regarding dividend distribution due to declining earnings and cash flows [4][15]. Conclusion - The Chinese oil and gas sector is currently under pressure from falling oil prices and competitive dynamics, with varying impacts on major players. PetroChina and CNOOC are expected to show resilience, while Sinopec faces significant challenges. Investment strategies should consider these dynamics and the associated risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil industry**, focusing on the dynamics of **Brent oil prices**, **OPEC+ production quotas**, and the impact of geopolitical events on oil supply and demand. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Oil Price Increase**: The Brent oil price has increased by **7% week-on-week** due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential for a **100% tariff on Russian oil imports** by the US, affecting major importers like **China and India**, which account for **3.3 million barrels per day (mb/d)** or **45%** of Russian oil exports year-to-date [1][2][3]. 2. **OPEC+ Production Decisions**: OPEC+ is expected to announce a **0.55 mb/d quota increase** for September, completing the return of **2.2 mb/d** of voluntary cuts. This increase is anticipated to result in a **1.7 mb/d** rise in actual OPEC+ crude production from March to September, with **Saudi Arabia** and **UAE** contributing **60%** and **20%** respectively [2][3]. 3. **Future Production Quotas**: It is assumed that OPEC+ will maintain its production quota unchanged after September due to anticipated growth from new non-OPEC projects, which could add nearly **0.9 mb/d** in production [3]. 4. **Global Oil Inventory Trends**: Global visible stocks have been increasing, particularly in the **OECD**, with **China** absorbing **40%** of global visible builds. China's crude storage utilization remains below historical highs, indicating potential for further storage growth [6][12]. 5. **Russia's Oil Production Decline**: The net supply from Russia has decreased by **0.3 mb/d**, attributed to a stronger Ruble and compensation cuts. Meanwhile, production in the Americas, particularly from **Canada** and **Brazil**, has shown positive growth [7][15]. 6. **OECD Stock Levels**: OECD commercial stocks have increased by **5 mb** and now stand at **2,791 mb**, which is **22 mb** above previous forecasts. This increase is expected to continue, especially post-summer peak demand [15][18]. 7. **Demand Forecasts**: Global oil demand is projected to be **0.3 mb/d** above last year's levels, with specific increases noted in **China** and **OECD Europe** [39][42][45]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: The perceived probability of additional sanctions on Russia has surged, contributing to the recent rally in crude prices [8]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The gap between the Brent 1M/36M timespread and its fair value has narrowed, indicating tighter market conditions [48]. 3. **Refining Margins**: Early signs of moderation in refining margins have been observed, particularly in **Northwest Europe**, while diesel margins in Europe and the US have retreated from recent highs [57][58]. 4. **Investment Considerations**: Investors are advised to consider this report as one of several factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the importance of comprehensive analysis [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the oil market dynamics, particularly in relation to the geopolitical tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for global oil prices and supply. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Tensions**: President Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine from 50 days to 10 days, indicating frustration with Russia's inaction [2][6][10] 2. **Potential Sanctions**: Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, including China, India, and Brazil, if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire by September 2 [2][6][10] 3. **Oil Price Projections**: If both Russia and the US take action, oil prices could spike significantly due to supply restrictions. Conversely, if no action is taken, prices are expected to decline to $60 by year-end [4][6][10] 4. **Impact of Sanctions on India**: India has indicated compliance with European and US sanctions, which could risk up to 2.3 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil exports. This loss could drive oil prices sharply higher, as OPEC's spare capacity is insufficient to offset this volume [6][10][12] 5. **China's Stance**: China has signaled it will not change its purchasing patterns of Russian oil, which complicates the geopolitical landscape [10][22] 6. **Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)**: Russia may respond to sanctions by closing the CPC pipeline, which exports 1.5-1.6 mbd of oil, significantly impacting global supply [12][24] 7. **OPEC's Spare Capacity**: OPEC's spare capacity is estimated to be around 1.3 mbd, which is insufficient to cover potential losses from Russian oil exports [21][19] 8. **Global Supply Dynamics**: Non-OPEC countries are expected to increase supply by about 1 mbd by year-end, but this increase may not be immediate [10][21] 9. **Long-term Oil Price Forecasts**: J.P. Morgan forecasts Brent crude prices to average $82 in 2024, with a decline to $66 by 2026, reflecting the anticipated market adjustments [46][43] Other Important Considerations 1. **Russia's Leverage**: Russia has expanded control over key export routes, which it may use as leverage against Western sanctions [24][29] 2. **Kazakhstan's Oil Exports**: Kazakhstan's oil exports via the CPC are vulnerable, as US and European companies control a significant portion of these exports [30][37] 3. **Political Risks**: The potential for significant oil price spikes due to sanctions poses political risks for the Trump administration, especially with high consumer prices in the US [10][14] 4. **Market Volatility**: The current geopolitical situation creates a "zugzwang" scenario where any action could worsen the position of either party, leading to increased market volatility [4][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil market as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical events and market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chemicals and Oil & Gas - **Key Focus**: The impact of anti-involution policies on the chemicals sector and oil price trends leading up to the OPEC+ meeting Chemicals Sector Insights - **Anti-involution Policies**: The chemicals sector is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at promoting healthy development. This includes: - Tightening project approvals - Identifying obsolete capacity and creating an elimination list - Promoting industry self-discipline to prevent price dumping - Including chemical products in the carbon trading market [2][2][2] - **Performance Metrics**: CSI 300 chemical stocks outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4% last week, indicating positive market sentiment [2][2][2]. - **Capacity Issues**: The capacity-to-demand ratio for 36 petrochemical commodities reached 130% in 2024, suggesting significant overcapacity in the sector [2][2][2]. - **Subsectors to Watch**: Focus on subsectors with overcapacity and poor profitability, such as: - Fertilizers (phosphate fertilizers/urea) - Chlor-alkali (soda ash/PVC) - Oil refining/olefins - Pesticides and silicones [2][2][2]. Oil & Gas Sector Insights - **Oil Prices**: Brent futures averaged US$69/bbl, remaining stable week-over-week, supported by low inventories and geopolitical risks [3][3][3]. - **Inventory Changes**: US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels, exceeding consensus estimates of a 1.6 million barrel decline [3][3][3]. - **OPEC+ Meeting**: The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on August 3 is crucial, with expectations that production increases will be maintained [3][3][3]. Price Movements in Chemicals - **Price Changes**: - TDI average selling price (ASP) rose 18% week-over-week due to force majeure events [4][4][4]. - Silicone DMC ASP increased by 11% week-over-week due to supply contraction [4][4][4]. - Potassium chloride ASP fell by 3% as supply stabilization policies took effect [4][4][4]. Stock Recommendations - **Oil & Gas Stocks**: - Preferred stocks include PetroChina-A/H for its strong natural gas business and Jereh for overseas market expansion [5][5][5]. - **Chemicals Stocks**: - Focus on companies in sectors with excess capacity and potential benefits from anti-involution, such as: - Hualu-Hengsheng (fertilizers) - Hengli Petrochemical (refining) - Wanhua (TDI) and Yangnong (pesticides) for price hike potential [5][5][5]. Risks Identified - **Oil & Gas Sector Risks**: - Fluctuations in crude oil prices - Disappointing reserve and productivity enhancements - Declining prices of major petrochemical products [9][9][9]. - **Chemicals Sector Risks**: - Earnings fluctuations due to oil price volatility - Demand risks from global economic uncertainties - Rapid new capacity coming online [10][10][10]. - **New Materials Sector Risks**: - Technological changes and policy risks - Difficulty in tracking revenue and sales growth [11][11][11]. Conclusion - The chemicals and oil & gas sectors are currently navigating significant changes due to government policies and market dynamics. Investors are advised to focus on specific subsectors and companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends while being mindful of the associated risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese oil industry**, specifically analyzing June supply, apparent demand, and trade data for China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apparent Demand Growth**: Chinese apparent oil demand grew by **5% YoY** in June, returning to the top of the 5-year range, driven by strong demand for naphtha, jet fuel, and diesel [2][3][6] 2. **Crude Imports Surge**: Crude imports increased by **1.2 mb/d** in June, with significant contributions from Saudi Arabia (+52% MoM) and Iran (+88% MoM) [4][54][55] 3. **Refinery Throughput**: Refinery throughput rose sharply by **1.2 mb/d** to **15.2 mb/d**, marking a record for June runs as state-owned refiners exited seasonal maintenance [5][61][62] 4. **Refined Products Exports**: Exports of refined products increased by **260 kb/d MoM**, with gasoline exports rising due to improved margins, although overall gasoline exports were down **16% YoY** [6][70][72] 5. **Diesel Demand Recovery**: Apparent diesel demand saw a **3% YoY** increase, marking the first month of positive growth since November 2024, supported by logistics sector demand [12][16] 6. **Jet Fuel Demand Growth**: Apparent jet fuel demand rose by **170 kb/d MoM**, driven by increased international travel and supportive government policies [28][33][35] 7. **Naphtha Demand Spike**: Naphtha demand surged by **415 kb/d MoM**, attributed to the high import tax on US LPG, making naphtha a more attractive feedstock [46][49] 8. **LPG Demand Decline**: Apparent LPG demand fell by **135 kb/d MoM** due to the impact of US-China tariffs, leading to a significant disruption in the market [41][45] 9. **Crude Production Increase**: Chinese crude production increased by **80 kb/d MoM**, reflecting seasonal trends and new field startups [52][54] 10. **Inventory Levels**: Crude stocks built by **13.5 million barrels** in June, reaching record levels, driven by high imports from Iran and Saudi Arabia [159][161] Additional Important Insights 1. **Manufacturing PMI**: The Manufacturing PMI rose to **49.7** in June, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity, although it remained in contraction territory [10][13][14] 2. **Impact of NEVs**: New energy vehicles (NEVs) are displacing diesel and gasoline demand, with NEV sales reaching a **53% penetration rate** in the domestic market [20][21][16] 3. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have affected crude buying patterns and may disrupt future imports [57][60] 4. **Independent Refiners' Challenges**: Independent refiners are facing challenges due to a shortage of crude import quotas and potential sanctions on Russian oil, which could disrupt their operations [137][138] 5. **Future Outlook**: The outlook for the independent refining sector remains troubled, with potential capacity reductions due to anti-involution policies and environmental regulations [138][139] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese oil industry.