ab 27 January 2026 Global Research China Oil and Gas Sector Eyes on opportunities in deep-sea exploration and longer-term oil price recovery Deep-sea mining and oil & gas exploration drawing investor attention The recent acceleration in the deep-sea exploration permitting framework in the US has drawn market attention to deep-sea mining and oil & gas exploration (see note). The UBS Japan team visited the largest offshore FPSO in Guyana. MODEC's (a globally leading FPSO operator) management noted order intak ...

ab 26 January 2026 Global Research Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot Noisy start to the year, surplus intact Crude rebounds, risk still to the downside, if no further disruption Oil prices have traded in a $7/bbl range so far this year, buffeted by geopolitical developments. Brent has for now rebounded into the mid-$60s on risks around Iran and disruptions in Kazakstan. In the absence of further disruptions, we still see risk to the downside in the near-term as fundamentals still point to a sizable s ...

Vi e w p o i n t | 28 Jan 2026 15:25:03 ET │ 12 pages Oil Monitor Why are oil prices so strong, despite a supposed global oversupply and production returning from Kazakhstan and the US? CITI'S TAKE Oil prices can stay more elevated than many had expected, despite markets starting the year anticipating large oversupply. Recent events cannot fully explain the price strength: Brent is ~$68/bbl at the time of writing, far from the ~$50/bbl price that a 2-mb/d oversupplied market could imply. We had long expecte ...

Accessible version The Oil Gusher Reporting season is outlook season Industry Overview Key takeaways 4Q25 earnings in rear view mirror: 2026 outlook ahead 4Q25 earnings season is just around the corner for Europe's Big Oils (kicking off with Equinor on February 4th). Alongside 2025 results, we believe fresh guidance for 2026 will be in focus (see our take in our Year Ahead 2026: Cushions for soft landing). We prefer Oil Services > Big Oils > E&Ps and highlight TTE as our top Big Oil pick. $60/bbl Brent need ...

January 23, 2026 05:00 AM GMT Oil Data Digest | Europe M Update Key Agency Revisions – January 2026 We summarise January oil market forecasts from the IEA, EIA and OPEC. The IEA's estimate for the 2026 oil market has shrunk marginally on a small upgrade to OECD Europe demand but still sees a 3.7 mb/d imbalance. The EIA's surplus estimate grows to 2.8 mb/d on weaker demand outlook. Key Takeaways This report summarises estimates from the IEA, OPEC and the EIA, and compares them with our latest estimates from ...

Citi Research January 20, 2026 GCC Navigating Growth Amid Oil Oversupply and Geopolitical Uncertainty Ilker DomacAC Economist ilker.domac@citi.com +971-4509-9588 Gultekin IsiklarAC Economist gultekin.isiklar@citi.com +90-212-319-4915 See AppendixA-1 for AnalystCertification, Important Disclosures and ResearchAnalystAffiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors ...

ab 21 January 2026 The IEA slightly increased its projections for global oil demand growth, by 12kb/d in 2025 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +0.9Mb/d) and by 70kb/d in 2026 to 0.9Mb/d (UBSe +1.2Mb/ d). Absolute demand revisions rose by 130kb/d for 2025 and 200kb/d for 2026, driven by an upward revision to the base (+114kb/d for 2024). China's demand growth forecast was raised by 60kb/d for 2025, but reduced by 15kb/d to 180kb/d for both years. Non-OPEC+ growth also up Global Research First Read Global Oil Fundamentals La ...

22 January 2026 Bernstein Energy: Oil inventories build while geopolitics take centre stage Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Bob Brackett, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Irene Himona, Ph.D. +44 20 7762 5353 irene.himona@bernsteinsg.com We expect inventories to build through 2026, with supply growth outpacing demand. Global oil demand is expected to grow by almost1.0MMbls/d to 105MMbls/ d with non-OECD Asia (0.4MMbls/d) contributin ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Energy, Utilities & Mining, specifically discussing sectors such as Oil, Gas, Nuclear, Power, and Steel [1] Key Insights and Arguments E&P (Exploration and Production) - **Natural Gas Volatility**: Recent cold weather has led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, with investors balancing global supply risks against strong long-term US demand [1] - **Investor Sentiment**: While bullish on natural gas prices for most of 2025, investors have recently become cautious due to potential global supply risks by 2028 and warmer winter forecasts [1] - **Storage Levels**: Increased heating degree days (HDDs) from colder weather are expected to draw down storage levels more than previously anticipated, positively impacting natural gas producers [1] - **Valuation**: Companies like EXE and EQT are highlighted for their compelling risk-reward profiles, with expected price targets showing 19% and 20% upside respectively [1] Majors & Refiners - **Economic Outlook**: GDP expectations have surprised positively, positioning large-cap refining stocks favorably for potential economic reacceleration [2][4] - **Refining Performance**: Refining equities outperformed the XLE index significantly in 2025, driven by supply disruptions and increased global demand [4] - **Stock Recommendations**: Valero Energy (VLO) and HF Sinclair (DINO) are recommended due to their strong operational positions and expected capital returns [4] Midstream - **LNG Market Sentiment**: Cheniere (LNG) has seen a modest rebound, but investor focus remains on growth plans and global gas margin exposure [5] - **Growth Catalysts**: Cheniere is expected to execute additional brownfield expansions and deliver significant shareholder returns, with a contracted footprint mitigating global gas price fluctuations [5] Utilities - **Affordability Concerns**: Rising utility bills (up 17% over three years) have become a major focus, particularly in the PJM region, with upcoming elections potentially impacting utility policies [6][7] - **Investor Strategy**: Investors are screening for utilities with lower rates and diversified operations to mitigate election-related risks [7] Energy Services - **International Recovery**: Signs of recovery in international markets are noted, with increased activity expected in regions like the Middle East and Latin America [8] - **Stock Recommendations**: SLB and HAL are highlighted as best positioned to benefit from this recovery [8] Clean Technology - **Nuclear Investment**: CCJ is recommended as a key player in the nuclear sector, with potential upside from new reactor deployments and supportive uranium market dynamics [9][11] - **Valuation Risks**: Despite high valuations, positive catalysts are expected to support growth in the medium term [11] Metals & Mining - **Steel Pricing**: HRC prices have firmed up significantly, driven by favorable trade policies and steady demand from key markets [12][45] - **Stock Preference**: CMC is preferred due to its competitive valuation and strong market position in rebar production [12] Additional Important Insights - **Investor Conversations**: Ongoing discussions with investors highlight concerns about the macroeconomic environment, commodity price volatility, and specific company strategies [27][28][30][31] - **Regulatory Environment**: Changes in utility regulations and potential impacts from state elections are creating uncertainty in the utilities sector [36][37] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of various sectors within the energy and utilities landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the disruptions in Kazakhstan's oil production and the implications for global oil prices and stock levels [1][5][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Crude Prices Stability**: Crude prices have remained stable as attention shifted from Iranian supply risks to disruptions in Kazakhstan production and CPC pipeline flows [1]. - **CPC Pipeline Exports**: Oil flows via the CPC pipeline have decreased significantly, dropping below 0.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), the lowest level in over nine years. Month-to-date average CPC exports are nearly 1 mb/d lower than the initial loading program due to delays in mooring repairs and production halts in Kazakhstan [1][3]. - **Kazakhstan Production Disruption**: An estimated disruption of 0.5 mb/d in Kazakhstan's January production is noted, which is 0.3 mb/d below the baseline expectations [1]. - **Global Stock Builds**: Global visible stock builds have slowed to 0.7 mb/d over the last two weeks, down from 1.7 mb/d over the previous four weeks, attributed to Kazakhstan disruptions and higher heating demand [1][11]. - **OECD Stocks**: OECD commercial stocks accounted for nearly all of the global visible builds in the last two weeks, indicating a negative price impact [1][11]. - **Oil on Water**: The volume of oil on water peaked in early January but remains at the 94th percentile of its historical distribution. Sanctioned suppliers (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) now account for two-thirds of current storage on water [1][6]. - **Venezuela Production Decline**: Venezuela's oil production from the Orinoco Belt decreased by 120 kb/d (23%) in early January, but disruptions are expected to be short-lived due to potential easing of US sanctions [1][2]. Additional Important Insights - **Brent Spot Prices**: Spot Brent is trading at $64-65, which is $4-5 per barrel above January expectations. Disruptions in Kazakhstan production account for about half of this price increase [5]. - **Geopolitical Risk Premium**: The remaining price increase is attributed to a rise in geopolitical risk, particularly related to Iran [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: The options market indicates an 18% probability that Brent futures will expire above $70 per barrel, reflecting ongoing geopolitical concerns [8]. - **Refining Margins**: US diesel margins increased by $8 last week due to cold weather, while average crude tanker freight rates jumped by 35% ($1.4/bbl) over the last two weeks [13][51]. - **Production Forecasts**: The report includes forecasts for new supply projects expected to come online through the summer, with significant contributions from Brazil and Saudi Arabia [25]. Conclusion - The oil industry is currently facing significant disruptions, particularly from Kazakhstan and Venezuela, which are impacting global supply and prices. The geopolitical landscape remains a critical factor influencing market dynamics, with potential implications for future production and stock levels.