Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com Lyuba Savinova (1-212) 270-3781 lyuba.savinova@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 19 December 2025 Oil Markets Weekly Barrels behind barriers—Venezuela and Russia See page 28 for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{jTiV3YMC0MR2H-KuBHT9QiaqN9x_-k7BtiiiDrP3kH6h8QrNxllBk7Iw66x--QkHaIMO36Coqm6GInms}]} • The sharp drop in WTI to $55/bbl this week presented an opportunit ...

ab 15 December 2025 Global Research Global Oil and Gas Expert call feedback - IEA's WEO 2025 Expert webinar with the IEA on its World Energy Outlook 2025 We hosted an expert webinar with Stéphanie Bouckaert, the IEA's Head of Demand Sectors Unit and one of the lead authors of the World Energy Outlook series. We discussed the recently published World Energy Outlook 2025 with a focus on demand. A replay of the call is available here. Rising electrification drives overall energy demand The expert highlighted t ...

16 December 2025 | 10:04PM EST Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Brent in the 50s as Stocks Land and Upside Risks to Long-Term Supply Rise 1 Year-end tax rules have likely been weighing on US oil stocks as well. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sa ...

December 15, 2025 02:04 PM GMT Energy Services & Equipment | North America 2026 Outlook: Navigating an Oil Surplus Into 2026, we see NAm nearing a bottom, growth in int'l onshore driven by OPEC activity & take a more muted view on offshore as efficiency gains moderate upside. Against a challenging oil backdrop, we generally prefer exposure to more defensive & unique revenue streams. HAL to Top Pick, NOV to EW. Key Takeaways With this report, Joe Laetsch assumes coverage of North America Energy Services & Eq ...

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the oil and gas industry, specifically the dynamics between Oil Services, Big Oil, and Exploration & Production (E&Ps) sectors - The preferred sector strategy is Oil Services > Big Oil > E&Ps, indicating a bullish outlook on Oil Services due to expected revenue growth and margin expansion [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Oil Price Forecast**: A forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent oil in 2026 is expected to create significant pressure on free cash flow (FCF) across sectors, with E&Ps facing the most strain, followed by Big Oils and then Oil Services [1][2] - **Revenue Growth**: European Oilfield Services (OFS) are projected to see a 5% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, while Big Oils are expected to experience nearly flat production growth [1][9] - **Earnings Estimates**: The average year-over-year EBITDA growth is estimated at +5% for OFS, -4% for Big Oil, and -10% for E&Ps under the $60/bbl Brent forecast [2][9] - **Capex Trends**: Industry capital expenditures (capex) are expected to flatline, further squeezing FCF and impacting cash returns to shareholders, with Big Oil buybacks projected to decrease by nearly 25% year-over-year [2][9] Company-Specific Insights - **TotalEnergies (TTE)**: Identified as a top pick due to its resilience and undervaluation, with a breakeven oil price expected to decline through organic growth in oil and gas volumes [3][4] - **Galp**: Noted for its significant production growth, projected at over 10% in 2026, which stands out among European Big Oils [4][36] - **Saipem**: Expected to benefit from margin expansion and a strong order book, with a projected 20% year-over-year EBITDA growth in 2026 [26][28] Additional Important Insights - **E&P Sector Vulnerability**: The E&P sector is facing significant challenges, with many companies carrying high debt levels and cash flow break-evens above the $60/bbl forecast, leading to limited defensive options [24][46] - **Dividend Yields**: Some E&Ps are offering double-digit dividend yields as a form of protection against market volatility, with Ithaca Energy highlighted for its strong balance sheet and low break-even price of $45/bbl [45][46] - **Balance Sheet Pressure**: The overall balance sheet strength of Big Oils is under scrutiny, with increasing net debt levels despite asset disposals, indicating a need for more inorganic growth cushions [23][24] Conclusion - The oil and gas industry is navigating a challenging environment with a $60/bbl Brent oil price forecast, impacting cash flows and shareholder returns across sectors. Oil Services are positioned to perform better than Big Oil and E&Ps, with specific companies like TotalEnergies and Galp standing out for their growth potential and resilience.

ab 9 December 2025 Global Research First Read Output from OPEC+8 carrying voluntary down -80kb/d In November, crude output from OPEC-9 and its partners fell by 174kb/d m/m to an average 37.5Mb/d. The total production change from the eight countries carrying the voluntary cuts was down 80kb/d m/m, vs. the planned adjustment (incl. new compensation plan) of -99kb/d. Russia led the decline, falling by 150kb/d m/m, followed by Saudi Arabia -100kb/d m/m, partly offset by increased Kazakh production (+120kb/ d). ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 04 December 2025 Oil Markets Weekly Two weeks in—assessing the early impact of Russia sanctions Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com Lyuba Savinova (1-212) 270-3781 lyuba.savinova@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA {[{-M8qAsmq5A_F8c4rlNai3e56JB7o430cCPuNzl61-I8ZuK6-CUCqX9qPqqCUkSFAFU1eyT-xi34wvYG3}]} • Despite the expansion of sanctions and the expiration of the transition window on 21 November, Russian crude flows i ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil refining industry** and **crude shipping** dynamics, particularly focusing on the **Chinese market** and **geopolitical influences** affecting refining margins and shipping rates. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Volatility in Refining Margins**: - Overseas refining margins have experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with the UBS European Composite Refining Margin increasing from approximately **US$14/bbl** in late October to **US$20/bbl** in November, before dropping to **US$12.69/bbl** due to reduced risk premiums from Russia/Ukraine discussions [2][4][27]. 2. **Refinery Utilization Rates**: - Major refineries in China saw a **4.16 percentage point** month-over-month decrease in utilization, dropping to **79.22%** in November, attributed to maintenance and nearing completion of annual production plans. In contrast, utilization at teapot refineries increased by **3.79 percentage points** to **62.28%** [3][27]. 3. **Oil Product Prices and Exports**: - Brent crude futures remained stable at **US$64/bbl** in November. Domestic retail price ceilings for gasoline and diesel were raised by **Rmb55/t**. Year-over-year exports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene increased by **12%**, **56%**, and **18%** respectively in October [3][27]. 4. **Crude Import Quotas**: - The first batch of China's crude import quota for 2026 expanded by **29% year-over-year**, while the total import quota for non-state-owned crude trade remained stable at **260 million tonnes** for 2026 [3][27]. 5. **VLCC Rates and Shipping Dynamics**: - Current Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates are between **US$130,000 and US$140,000 per day**, supported by seasonal demand and limited supply. The shadow fleet is estimated to consist of over **1,400 tankers**, with about **500** not on the sanctions list [4][27]. 6. **Geopolitical Risks and Future Uncertainties**: - Potential easing of geopolitical conflicts, OPEC+ output decisions, and the profitability of Chinese refineries are highlighted as uncertainties that could impact VLCC rates and overall demand [4][27]. Additional Important Information - **Regulatory Environment**: The refining and retail oil product marketing industries in China are currently in oversupply, which poses risks related to competitive pressures and government policy changes, including potential windfall profit taxes and price controls [27]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the seasonal nature of oil prices and refining margins, which can lead to volatile earnings in the sector from quarter to quarter [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the oil refining industry and its dynamics influenced by geopolitical factors and market conditions.

Global Research ab 30 November 2025 First Read Global Oil Fundamentals OPEC+ to raise transparency OPEC+ meetings confirm near-term production targets OPEC and its OPEC+ partners today held several meetings at which they confirmed the group's production targets. This is in line with market expectations, we believe, and should be neutral for oil prices. Firstly, the 40th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting confirmed the production level for all members till end 2026 (link). Secondly, the meeting of the 8 O ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the geopolitical risks affecting oil prices and exports, with a specific emphasis on Russia, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela [3][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Crude Price Stability**: The Brent crude price has remained stable in the low $60s amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which have not yielded significant breakthroughs [3][5]. 2. **Russian Oil Export Revenue Decline**: - Seaborne oil exports from major Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft have decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 42%, since the announcement of sanctions in October [3][5]. - Overall Russian oil export revenues in Rubles have fallen by approximately 50% year-to-date, dropping from 7.6% of GDP to 3.7% [3][5]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks Impacting Kazakhstan and Venezuela**: - Kazakhstan's oil exports may be affected by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's efforts to restore full capacity following drone attacks, with current exports potentially 0.5 mb/d below capacity [3][5]. - Venezuela's oil production has decreased by 0.5 mb/d over the last two months due to escalating military risks, although there is potential for long-term recovery with the return of Western investments [3][5]. 4. **US Oil Production Growth**: - The US EIA report for September indicated a year-over-year increase in US liquids production by 1.3 mb/d, with a nearly equal split between crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) [3][5]. - Public oil producers in the US reported nearly 2% higher Q3 oil production than previously expected [3][5]. 5. **Brazil's Record Oil Production**: Brazil's oil production rose by 0.76 mb/d, or 24% year-over-year, reaching a new record high in October [3][9]. 6. **Refined Products Margins**: European diesel margins have declined by $11 per barrel from mid-November highs, influenced by peace-talk headlines and expectations of increased Chinese product export quotas [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Oil Stocks**: Global visible oil stocks have increased by nearly 2 mb/d over the past 30 days, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][9]. - **US Oil Rig Count**: The US oil rig count decreased by 12 to 407 last week, which may signal a slowdown in future production growth [12]. - **Future Supply Growth Expectations**: Strong supply growth is anticipated outside of OPEC+ and the US Lower 48 crude regions into the next year, with several new projects expected to come online [25][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the oil industry, geopolitical influences, and production trends.