Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on select covered developers, reiterating Buy ratings on CRL, COLI, Greentown, Jinmao, and Longfor [6][50][51]. Core Insights - The housing supply ratio in China is currently at 1X, which is lower or comparable to other sample countries, indicating potential for improvement as inventory is disclosed [2][8]. - The report identifies that 37% of sample cities have a housing supply ratio below 0.9X, while 26% have a ratio above 1.1X, with the excess inventory concentrated in Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities [8][14]. - The analysis suggests that a long-term housing supply ratio of 1.1X is reasonable, implying a potential funding need of Rmb0.7tn-1.6tn for inventory buybacks, which is equivalent to 0.5-1.2% of national GDP [6][35][36]. - The government has accelerated land buyback efforts, announcing nearly Rmb400bn in buybacks, primarily focused on lower-tier cities [6][37][47]. Summary by Sections Housing Supply Ratios - The report examines 78 cities, accounting for approximately 50% of China's population and housing stock, revealing a housing supply ratio of 0.7X for Tier-1 cities, 0.89X for Tier-2 cities, and 1.02X for Tier-3/4 cities [6][8][11]. - The report builds four illustrative cases to analyze how housing ratios could change based on different assumptions regarding urban household formation and living space per capita [27][28]. Inventory Analysis - As of end-1Q25, the sample cities are estimated to have 1.5 billion square meters of unsold residential inventory, with nearly half remaining as raw land [22][25]. - The average saleable inventory is projected to last 26 months, while total unsold inventory could take up to 6 years to clear [25][22]. Developer Performance - The report highlights that covered developers have shown more resilient primary average selling price (ASP) performance compared to secondary markets, with a significant portion of land investment concentrated in top-performing markets [50][51]. - The expected improvement in margins and return on equity (ROE) beyond 2027 is supported by better investment strategies and decreasing contributions from older low-margin land banks [51][60].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - Top 100 developers' contract sales weakened by 10% YoY in May 2025, slightly worsening from a 9% decline in April 2025, while MoM sales increased by 3% [2][6][19] - The decline in sales is attributed to macro uncertainties amid the trade war, impacting homebuyer confidence, particularly in export-heavy cities like Ningbo and Guangzhou [2] - Tier-1 cities continue to drive the primary market, with primary sales volume in these cities increasing by 26% on a 30-day moving average basis, compared to a mere 3% for 30 cities combined [2] - SOE developers outperformed the overall market with a 4% YoY decline in contract sales, while semi-SOE and POE developers saw declines of 22% and 15% respectively [4][23] - The luxury housing market remains active, with notable sales such as Shanghai's Kangding 19 project, which sold out 91 units in 41 minutes with a 265% oversubscription rate [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2025, the combined sales of the top 100 developers dropped 10% YoY, with a 3% MoM increase, reflecting ongoing market challenges [6][19] - For the first five months of 2025, combined sales declined 8% YoY, consistent with the previous month [2][19] Secondary Market Activity - Secondary listings in 50 cities increased by 8.7% YoY and 7.8% YTD, while Tier-1 cities saw a 4.3% YoY and 5.6% YTD increase [3][9] - The secondary transaction volume for 12 cities increased by 7% YoY in May, although this was a slowdown from 17% in April [3][29] Developer Performance - SOE developers maintained a market share of 53%, outperforming POE developers at 32%, with Jinmao and COLI showing significant contract sales growth of 72% and 21% YoY respectively [4][23] - The report indicates a potential shift in sales models from presale to completed properties, which may favor SOE developers due to their lower financing costs [4] Market Outlook - The report anticipates stabilization in the property market, indicated by positive land sales YoY after three years of decline and a robust luxury housing market [2]