FT @fundstrat @farokh ...

FT @fundstrat @farokh ...

Core Insights - Tom Lee suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are nearing a bottom after a prolonged decline, indicating that the current crypto winter is "near the end" despite skepticism due to previous missed predictions [1][7] - Institutional investors are increasing their exposure to BitMine, with significant investments from BlackRock and Cathie Wood's Ark Invest in Ethereum [1] Group 1 - Lee indicates that the current market sentiment and weak price action imply that the crypto market is in its final phase of capitulation, with Bitcoin projected to fall to around $60,000 and Ethereum to approximately $1,890 [2] - Ethereum has reportedly reached its target and may need "one more undercut" before establishing a lasting low, with Lee predicting the downturn could conclude by April at the latest [3] - The crypto market has faced significant struggles since Q4, with Bitcoin and Ethereum down 45% and 60% from their all-time highs, respectively [4] Group 2 - Lee's previous bullish projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum have not materialized, leading to skepticism about his credibility, especially regarding his bottom call [5] - The surge in gold prices has created a "FOMO" effect, diverting capital away from digital assets, as gold's strength has become more pronounced [8]

FT @fundstrat and @farokh ...

FT @fundstrat and @farokh ...

Group 1 - The Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) launched in November 2024, includes stocks based on short and long-term trends identified by Fundstrat [1][7] - GRNY ETF has eight stocks in common with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), indicating alignment with certain investment themes [2][6] - The current themes for the GRNY ETF include PMI recovery, energy stocks, cybersecurity stocks, labor suppliers, targeting millennials, and easing financial conditions [7] Group 2 - The eight common stocks between GRNY and DIA include Caterpillar Inc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Apple Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., NVIDIA Corp, American Express Co, Amazon.com Inc, and Microsoft Corp [3][4][5][6] - GRNY is down 0.32% year-to-date but has increased by 18.31% over the past 52 weeks, while DIA is up 3.46% year-to-date and 12.08% over the past 52 weeks [7][9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average consists of 30 stocks across various sectors, representing a broad view of the overall stock market health [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced a decline for three consecutive days after failing to maintain its price above $70,000, with current trading volumes decreasing and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicating "extreme fear" [1] - The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased to approximately $2.28 trillion, with the CoinDesk 20 index dropping by 3.4% in the last 24 hours; however, this pullback is considered modest compared to historical standards, with no signs of panic selling [2] - Despite lower trading volumes and negative sentiment, inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs have remained steady, helping to mitigate some selling pressure, indicating that the market is currently in a price discovery phase [3] Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by light spot trading volumes, with leverage influencing short-term price movements; this was evident when Bitcoin rebounded from lows due to crowded perpetual shorts [4] - Major market figures maintain a bullish outlook; for instance, Tom Lee from Fundstrat advised investors to seek entry points rather than attempting to time the market bottom [4] - Michael Saylor from Strategy reiterated his long-term confidence in Bitcoin, predicting it will outperform traditional equities despite recent price declines [5] Economic Indicators - Weak U.S. retail sales have led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which has negatively impacted the dollar; upcoming nonfarm payroll and inflation data are anticipated to further influence market risk appetite [5]

HONG KONG — Thomas Lee, chief investment officer of Fundstrat and chairman of ether treasury firm BitMine Immersion (BMNR), said that investors should focus less on timing the exact low and start looking for entries in a keynote speech at Consensus Hong Kong 2026 on Wednesday. "You should be thinking about opportunities here instead of selling," Lee said. BTC has suffered a 50% drawdown from its October record highs, its worst correction since 2022. On Wednesday, bitcoin fell back below $67,000, giving ...

"You don't want to lose hope in $BTC.It's been a better store of value than gold even though gold has looked better the past year."@fundstrat at @consensus_hk. https://t.co/igrEfW5zuc ...

Core Insights - The discussion highlights a potential "black swan" scenario where Elon Musk could disrupt the global financial system, rather than traditional influences like the Federal Reserve [1] - Gold is characterized as a "Lindy effect" asset, suggesting its long-standing acceptance as a store of value, and is also viewed through a demographic lens, indicating generational shifts in investment preferences [2][5] Gold Market Analysis - Gold's total "above ground" valuation is estimated between $29 trillion to $34 trillion, comparable to the stock market's Magnificent 7, which has a market cap of approximately $21 trillion [4] - The demographic research indicates that investment preferences tend to skip generations, with gold being a significant investment for baby boomers, while Generation X has leaned towards hedge funds and alternative investments [3][4] Risks and Disruptions - A key risk for gold is its above-ground availability, with estimates suggesting there is a million times more gold underground than above ground, which could lead to perverse incentives if gold prices rise too high [6] - The potential for major companies, like those in the Magnificent 7, to enter the gold mining business if gold becomes excessively valuable is highlighted as a disruptive factor [6]