Since the beginning of 2023 Ryanair’s shares have risen by 130%, far outpacing the global industry. Its remarkable ascent shows no sign of stopping https://t.co/qBnDw5bYMfPhoto: Getty Images https://t.co/ROqXCpiXS5 ...

Over the past 30 years Michael O’Leary has built Ryanair from a tiny, barely profitable airline into one of the world’s most successful carriers. We explain how https://t.co/IIwFYe5opJ ...

After a spat over Starlink Wi-Fi, Elon Musk called Ryanair’s boss an “idiot”—and threatened to buy the carrier. Mr Musk cannot purchase the Irish airline. But if he could, it would be an excellent investment https://t.co/IIwFYe5opJ ...

Core Viewpoint - Ryanair Holdings plc, a prominent player in the airline industry, is recognized for its low-cost business model and extensive flight network across Europe, positioning it as a strong competitor against other budget airlines like EasyJet and Wizz Air [1] Financial Performance - On January 26, 2026, Ryanair reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16, which was below the expected $0.18, but the company exceeded revenue forecasts with approximately $3.76 billion compared to the anticipated $2.41 billion [2][6] - During the Q3 2026 earnings call, management likely highlighted these financial results, focusing on revenue figures and operational efficiency, providing crucial insights into the company's strategic direction [3] Outlook and Strategic Developments - Ryanair has revised its fiscal 2026 outlook upwards, driven by strong demand and the early arrival of Boeing aircraft, which is expected to enhance the company's capacity to meet increasing customer demand [4][6] Financial Ratios - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 5.26, indicating how the market values its earnings, while the price-to-sales ratio is around 20.21, and the enterprise value to sales ratio is close to 20.12, reflecting the market's assessment of its revenue and total valuation [5] - Ryanair maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of about 0.16, suggesting conservative debt usage, although a current ratio of approximately 0.71 indicates potential challenges in covering short-term liabilities with short-term assets [5]

Core Insights - The letter discusses the changes in the investment portfolio during the second half of 2025, highlighting realized gains and concentration in specific sectors [2]. Group 1: Portfolio Changes - The company sold its positions in various assets during the second half of 2025, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [3].

Group 1 - Volkswagen will recall 44,551 ID.4 electric vehicles in the U.S. due to potential battery-related fire risks [1] - The recalls are part of two separate actions initiated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration [1] - This recall highlights ongoing safety concerns in the electric vehicle sector, particularly regarding battery technology [1]

Performance Summary - The portfolio achieved a return of 5.7% in the second half of 2025, resulting in a total return of +10.2% for the calendar year and +76% since inception in Canadian dollars net of fees [2][3] - Realized gains since inception are reported at +71.4%, with unrealized gains at 4.6% as of December 31, 2025 [3][35] - The portfolio's exposure by strategy bucket shows a significant concentration in Special Situations Equity at 35.9% for FY 2025, while Core Value Equity stands at 47% [4] Geopolitical Landscape - The investment landscape is undergoing dramatic shifts due to geopolitical changes, impacting competitive intensity and market size [7][8] - The corporate strategy of relying on low-cost supply chains is being challenged, leading to downward pressure on returns on capital [8] - Despite these changes, the opportunity set for fundamental value investors is not shrinking, but rather evolving [9][11] Portfolio Changes - In the second half of 2025, the company sold positions in Protector, Ryanair, and Alimak, marking the exit from all initial positions since inception [13] - The average return across the initial investments was 2.0x money with a 16% IRR, with no losses recorded on any investment [14] - The portfolio is now more concentrated, with the three largest positions comprising 37% of capital and the five largest making up 57% [19] Investment Cases for Major Holdings - **Burford Capital**: The company has seen an increase in book value per share and cash proceeds from litigation, with a fair value estimate of approximately 3x the current price [24][26] - **Borr Drilling**: The fundamentals have improved, with run-rate EBITDA increasing from $100 million to $500 million, and a fair value estimate of about 3x the current price [25][30] - **GetBusy PLC**: The management's ability to extract value from its US asset is crucial, with a fair value estimate of 2-4x the current price [27][30] - **Fever-Tree Drinks PLC**: The joint venture with Molson Coors is expected to accelerate commercialization, with a focus on recovering margins [28][30] - **Bolloré and Compagnie de L'Odet**: The simplification of the holding structure is ongoing, with potential for significant value creation over time [29][31] Business Update - The company has onboarded new investors aligned with its values and is utilizing AI to enhance business operations and insights [32]

Core Viewpoint - Ryanair Holdings PLC's third quarter results present a dichotomy between strong operational performance and significant regulatory challenges, with a notable impact from a fine and a speculative narrative linked to Elon Musk [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - Ryanair reported sales of $3.74 billion, slightly exceeding expectations, with a 6% increase in traffic to 47.5 million passengers and stable unit costs [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at seven cents, missing the consensus estimate of 18 cents and down from 30 cents a year ago, primarily due to a £256 million (approximately $351 million) antitrust fine in Italy [4]. Operational Insights - The airline's fleet has expanded to 643 aircraft, with 80% of fuel costs hedged, indicating a strong position in terms of cost management [2]. - Management has raised its outlook for 2026, reflecting confidence in future performance despite current challenges [2]. Market Dynamics - A rumor involving Elon Musk led to increased demand and web traffic for Ryanair, transforming the airline's narrative from a cost-focused entity to a speculative investment opportunity [5][6]. - The contrast between the tangible financial impact of the Italian fine and the speculative boost from the Musk narrative illustrates the current market sentiment, where narratives can significantly influence stock perception [7]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are weighing the strong fundamentals of Ryanair against the speculative nature of the Musk-related narrative, creating a tension in market pricing [6][7]. - The company is navigating between regulatory realities and speculative narratives, with the future performance likely influenced by both factors [7].

Core Viewpoint - Ryanair has raised its full-year growth forecast due to a 4% increase in average fares and a 9% rise in revenue, expecting fares to exceed their 7% growth target by 1 to 2% driven by strong consumer demand [1]. Financial Performance - Average fares increased by approximately 4% in the third quarter, while revenue grew by 9% [1]. - Full-year fare guidance has been adjusted from a 7% growth target to an 8% to 9% growth target [6]. - Full-year traffic guidance has been revised from 207 million passengers to 208 million passengers [6]. Market Dynamics - The airline industry is experiencing a supply constraint, which is contributing to higher airfares. Delays in aircraft deliveries have impacted the overall supply [7]. - The current delivery schedule for aircraft is not expected to significantly change the capacity outlook for summer 2026 [9]. Competitive Landscape - Ryanair's public feud with Elon Musk over the refusal to install Starlink's Wi-Fi has inadvertently boosted ticket sales, with a reported increase of 2% to 3% in bookings over the last five days [4]. - The CEO of Ryanair expressed gratitude towards Musk for the publicity generated from their feud, which has led to a significant increase in ticket sales [3][4].

Europe's largest airline group, Ryionaire, out with third quarter results this morning. Earnings missed expectations despite better than expected revenue. And joining us right now to talk about it is Ryionaire Group CFO Neil Sorah.The Irish Budget Airline Group is Good morning. It's great to see you, Neil. It's uh Boeing's biggest customer outside of the United States.And Neil, let's talk a little bit about this. Um I I think part of this came because of a fine from Italy's comp competitive um arm or anti-c ...