Financial Performance - Q2 Worldwide Sales reached $15.8 billion, a decrease of 2% nominally and ex-FX[10, 24] - Non-GAAP EPS was $2.13, a decrease of 7%[10] - KEYTRUDA sales increased by 9% to $8.0 billion, driven by strong demand[25] - GARDASIL sales decreased by 55% to $1.1 billion, primarily due to China[31] - Animal Health sales increased by 11% to $1.6 billion[45] Pipeline and Regulatory Updates - FDA approved ENFLONSIA for RSV prevention in infants[14, 61] - FDA accepted NDA for doravirine + islatravir for HIV-1 treatment[14, 61] - Positive topline results were announced for enlicitide in hyperlipidemia and WINREVAIR in PAH[14, 59, 60] Future Outlook - Updated 2025 revenue guidance is $64.3 billion to $65.3 billion, implying +0% to +2% nominal growth[49] - The company anticipates a commercial opportunity exceeding $50 billion by the mid-2030s from recent launches and the late-phase pipeline[20]

Core Viewpoint - Merck reported quarterly earnings of $2.13 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.01 per share, but down from $2.28 per share a year ago, indicating a +5.97% earnings surprise [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $15.81 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.02%, and down from $16.11 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Merck has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Merck shares have declined approximately 15.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.6% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Merck is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.41 on revenues of $17.21 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $8.87 on revenues of $64.96 billion [7] - The outlook for the industry, particularly the Large Cap Pharmaceuticals sector, is favorable, ranking in the top 26% of over 250 Zacks industries [8]

[Financial Performance Overview](index=1&type=section&id=Financial%20Performance%20Overview) [Consolidated Statement of Income (GAAP)](index=1&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Statement%20of%20Income%20%28GAAP%29) Merck's Q2 and YTD 2025 GAAP results show declining sales and net income, with increased R&D expenses | Metric | 2Q 2025 (Millions) | 2Q 2024 (Millions) | % Change (2Q) | YTD 2025 (Millions) | YTD 2024 (Millions) | % Change (YTD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Sales | $15,806 | $16,112 | -2% | $31,335 | $31,887 | -2% | | Net Income Attributable to Merck & Co., Inc. | $4,427 | $5,455 | -19% | $9,506 | $10,217 | -7% | | Earnings per Common Share Assuming Dilution | $1.76 | $2.14 | -18% | $3.77 | $4.02 | -6% | | Cost of sales | $3,557 | $3,745 | -5% | $6,976 | $7,285 | -4% | | Research and development | $4,048 | $3,500 | 16% | $7,669 | $7,492 | 2% | | Income Before Taxes | $4,999 | $6,006 | -17% | $10,902 | $11,675 | -7% | | Tax Rate | 11.4% | 9.1% | - | 12.7% | 12.4% | - - Research and development expenses increased by **16% in Q2 2025 to $4,048 million** and by **2% YTD 2025 to $7,669 million**, indicating continued investment in innovation despite overall sales decline[2](index=2&type=chunk) [GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliation](index=2&type=section&id=GAAP%20to%20Non-GAAP%20Reconciliation) This section reconciles GAAP to non-GAAP measures, excluding specific items to highlight core business performance, with non-GAAP figures generally higher due to adjustments | Metric | GAAP 2Q 2024 (Millions) | Non-GAAP 2Q 2024 (Millions) | GAAP YTD 2024 (Millions) | Non-GAAP YTD 2024 (Millions) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Income Attributable to Merck & Co., Inc. | $5,455 | $5,809 | $10,217 | $11,087 | | Earnings per Common Share Assuming Dilution | $2.14 | $2.28 | $4.02 | $4.36 | | Tax Rate | 9.1% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 15.0% | - Non-GAAP adjustments primarily exclude expenses for amortization of intangible assets in cost of sales and R&D, integration/transaction costs in SG&A, employee separation costs, and accelerated depreciation from restructuring programs[6](index=6&type=chunk)[7](index=7&type=chunk) - A significant tax benefit was recognized due to a reduction in reserves for unrecognized income tax benefits resulting from the expiration of the statute of limitations for assessments related to the 2019 federal tax return year[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Product and Segment Sales Analysis](index=3&type=section&id=Product%20and%20Segment%20Sales%20Analysis) [Franchise / Key Product Sales - Second Quarter 2025](index=3&type=section&id=Franchise%20%2F%20Key%20Product%20Sales%20-%20Second%20Quarter%202025) Q2 2025 global sales decreased by 2% due to international declines, despite strong U.S. growth and Keytruda's performance, while Gardasil/Gardasil 9 sales significantly dropped | Product/Segment | Global 2Q 2025 (Millions) | Global 2Q 2024 (Millions) | % Change (Global) | U.S. 2Q 2025 (Millions) | U.S. 2Q 2024 (Millions) | % Change (U.S.) | International 2Q 2025 (Millions) | International 2Q 2024 (Millions) | % Change (International) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | TOTAL SALES | $15,806 | $16,112 | -2% | $8,836 | $7,876 | 12% | $6,969 | $8,236 | -15% | | PHARMACEUTICAL | $14,050 | $14,408 | -2% | $8,328 | $7,399 | 13% | $5,722 | $7,009 | -18% | | Keytruda | $7,956 | $7,270 | 9% | $4,749 | $4,412 | 8% | $3,207 | $2,858 | 12% | | Gardasil/Gardasil 9 | $1,126 | $2,478 | -55% | $545 | $536 | 2% | $581 | $1,941 | -70% | | Winrevair | $336 | $70 | * | $323 | $70 | * | $12 | - | - | | ANIMAL HEALTH | $1,646 | $1,482 | 11% | $499 | $455 | 9% | $1,147 | $1,027 | 12% | | Other Revenues | $110 | $222 | -50% | $9 | $22 | -59% | $100 | $200 | -50% | - Winrevair, a new cardiovascular product, showed exceptional growth, increasing from **$70 million in Q2 2024 to $336 million in Q2 2025 globally**[10](index=10&type=chunk) - The significant decline in Gardasil/Gardasil 9 sales, particularly **internationally (-70%)**, was a major factor in the overall pharmaceutical sales decrease[10](index=10&type=chunk) [Franchise / Key Product Sales - June Year-to-Date 2025](index=5&type=section&id=Franchise%20%2F%20Key%20Product%20Sales%20-%20June%20Year-to-Date%202025) YTD 2025 global sales decreased by 2%, driven by international declines, while U.S. sales and Keytruda grew, and Winrevair showed strong performance despite Gardasil/Gardasil 9's significant drop | Product/Segment | Global YTD 2025 (Millions) | Global YTD 2024 (Millions) | % Change (Global) | U.S. YTD 2025 (Millions) | U.S. YTD 2024 (Millions) | % Change (U.S.) | International YTD 2025 (Millions) | International YTD 2024 (Millions) | % Change (International) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | TOTAL SALES | $31,335 | $31,887 | -2% | $17,359 | $15,354 | 13% | $13,977 | $16,533 | -15% | | PHARMACEUTICAL | $27,688 | $28,415 | -3% | $16,254 | $14,336 | 13% | $11,434 | $14,079 | -19% | | Keytruda | $15,161 | $14,217 | 7% | $9,057 | $8,531 | 6% | $6,104 | $5,686 | 7% | | Gardasil/Gardasil 9 | $2,453 | $4,727 | -48% | $1,082 | $1,024 | 6% | $1,371 | $3,702 | -63% | | Winrevair | $615 | $70 | * | $591 | $70 | * | $24 | - | - | | ANIMAL HEALTH | $3,234 | $2,993 | 8% | $1,001 | $929 | 8% | $2,233 | $2,064 | 8% | | Other Revenues | $413 | $479 | -14% | $104 | $89 | 17% | $310 | $390 | -21% | - Winrevair's year-to-date sales reached **$615 million**, demonstrating continued strong performance since its introduction[20](index=20&type=chunk) - Total Vaccines sales globally decreased by **29.7% YTD 2025 ($4,977 million)** compared to YTD 2024 (**$7,080 million**), primarily due to the decline in Gardasil/Gardasil 9[24](index=24&type=chunk) [Pharmaceutical Geographic Sales](index=7&type=section&id=Pharmaceutical%20Geographic%20Sales) Global pharmaceutical sales declined in Q2 and YTD 2025, with strong U.S. growth offset by a dramatic 77% drop in China, primarily due to Gardasil/Gardasil 9 sales | Region | 2Q 2025 (Millions) | 2Q 2024 (Millions) | % Change (2Q) | YTD 2025 (Millions) | YTD 2024 (Millions) | % Change (YTD) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | TOTAL PHARMACEUTICAL | $14,050 | $14,408 | -2% | $27,688 | $28,415 | -3% | | United States | $8,328 | $7,399 | 13% | $16,254 | $14,336 | 13% | | China | $407 | $1,790 | -77% | $1,075 | $3,534 | -70% | | Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa | $451 | $353 | 28% | $886 | $747 | 19% | - The decline in China's pharmaceutical sales is largely attributed to Gardasil/Gardasil 9 sales, which were **$0 in Q2 2025** compared to **$1,312 million in Q2 2024**[31](index=31&type=chunk) - The U.S. market's share of pharmaceutical sales increased from **51.4% in Q2 2024 to 59.3% in Q2 2025**, highlighting its growing importance[30](index=30&type=chunk) [Other Financial Details](index=8&type=section&id=Other%20Financial%20Details) [Other (Income) Expense, Net (GAAP)](index=8&type=section&id=Other%20%28Income%29%20Expense%2C%20Net%20%28GAAP%29) Other (income) expense, net, shifted to a net expense in Q2 and YTD 2025, driven by increased exchange losses and reduced miscellaneous income | Item | 2Q 2025 (Millions) | 2Q 2024 (Millions) | YTD 2025 (Millions) | YTD 2024 (Millions) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Interest income | $(69) | $(69) | $(178) | $(141) | | Interest expense | $305 | $310 | $618 | $613 | | Exchange losses | $78 | $60 | $167 | $144 | | Income from investments in equity securities, net | $(100) | $(56) | $(189) | $(200) | | Net periodic defined benefit plan (credit) cost other than service cost | $(152) | $(159) | $(300) | $(319) | | Other, net | $(69) | $(44) | $(161) | $(85) | | Total | $(7) | $42 | $(43) | $12 | - Exchange losses increased from **$60 million in Q2 2024 to $78 million in Q2 2025**, and from **$144 million YTD 2024 to $167 million YTD 2025**[33](index=33&type=chunk) - Net income from investments in equity securities decreased from **$(56) million in Q2 2024 to $(100) million in Q2 2025**, indicating a decline in investment performance[33](index=33&type=chunk)

美国制药巨头默克公司宣布裁员计划，预计通过重组节省30亿美元成本。默克公司还更新了全年销售指 引，预计全年销售额为643亿美元至653亿美元，此前预计为641亿美元至656亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co. is implementing a $3 billion cost-cutting initiative by the end of 2027 to reinvest in new product launches and its drug pipeline, in response to upcoming revenue losses from the patent expiration of Keytruda in 2028 and external pressures such as tariffs on pharmaceuticals [1][2][3]. Cost-Cutting and Restructuring - The multi-year optimization initiative aims to redirect investments from mature business areas to new growth drivers, facilitating portfolio transformation and innovation-driven growth [3]. - A new restructuring program has been approved, which will eliminate certain administrative, sales, and research and development positions, reduce global real estate, and pare back the manufacturing network, expected to generate around $1.7 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2027 [4]. - The total pretax costs related to the restructuring program are estimated to be approximately $3 billion, with a $649 million charge recorded in the second quarter [5]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Merck's revenue fell short of Wall Street estimates for the first time since April 2021, reporting $15.81 billion compared to the expected $15.89 billion [5][10]. - The company posted a net income of $4.43 billion, or $1.76 per share, down from $5.46 billion, or $2.14 per share, in the same period last year [9]. - Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $2.13, which may not be directly comparable to estimates of $2.01 [11]. Sales and Guidance - While Keytruda sales grew, Merck faced challenges with Gardasil sales in China, leading to a halt in shipments until at least mid-2025 due to high inventories and soft demand [6][7]. - Merck has narrowed its full-year guidance for 2025 adjusted earnings to between $8.87 and $8.97 per share and revenue expectations to between $64.3 billion and $65.3 billion [8].

Core Viewpoint - Iovance Biotherapeutics' stock has seen a significant decline, down approximately 75% from its peak in December, leading to mixed opinions among analysts regarding its valuation and future potential [1][2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Chardan Capital maintains a buy rating with a price target of $25, suggesting a potential gain of about 720% from the current price of $3.05 [2]. - The consensus price target for Iovance is $10 per share, indicating a potential average gain of 228% [3]. Group 2: Product Approval and Market Potential - The FDA approved Iovance's first product, Amtagvi, in February 2024, which is a cell-based treatment for advanced melanoma [5]. - In clinical trials, Amtagvi demonstrated a tumor shrinkage response in 31.5% of patients who had previously failed PD-1 blocking therapies [6]. - Among 41 patients evaluated post-approval, 20 showed smaller tumors or no tumors, with a response rate of 60.9% in those with limited prior treatments [7]. Group 3: Challenges Facing Iovance - Goldman Sachs downgraded Iovance to sell, citing concerns over a slower-than-expected launch of Amtagvi [8]. - The launch faces challenges including the FDA's approval based on tumor shrinkage rather than overall survival benefits, a small sales team, and the complex administration of the treatment [9][10]. - Sales for Amtagvi reached $43.6 million in Q1 2025, which is below expectations for a blockbuster product [11]. Group 4: Financial Outlook and Market Valuation - Iovance's market cap is approximately $1.05 billion, which is considered low for a biotech company with a new product [12]. - Management projects sales between $250 million and $300 million for the year, with biotech stocks typically trading at mid-to-high single-digit multiples of trailing sales [12]. - The resignation of the CFO raises concerns about future sales guidance, as such changes are often associated with disappointing forecasts [14].

Healthcare Sector Performance & Outlook - Healthcare sector experienced its worst three-year performance in over a decade, with a 25% increase compared to the S&P 500's 57% gain [1] - The healthcare sector's outlook hinges on clarity regarding drug pricing policies, particularly concerning the Most Favored Nation (MFN) [3][9] Drug Pricing & Policy Uncertainty - Uncertainty surrounding the scope of MFN drug pricing policy (Part B vs Part D, commercial spillover) is causing hesitation among generalist investors [2][5][6] - The industry anticipates MFN policy to be limited to Part B (injectable drugs) with potential for improved price points and US-only launches for new drugs, maintaining price integrity [5][8] Innovation & Investment - There is strong innovation within the biotech space, encouraging investment, with broad consensus supporting continued innovation [7] Company Earnings - Managed care companies like Sigma and Humana, along with large-cap pharma including Bristol Myers and Merck, are reporting earnings this week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co., Inc. is expected to report earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical trends indicating a tendency for negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, which could provide insights for event-driven traders [2][3]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts predict earnings of $2.03 per share on revenue of $15.87 billion for the upcoming quarter, reflecting a decrease from $2.28 per share and $16.11 billion in revenue from the same quarter last year [3]. - The anticipated decline in sales is attributed to challenges faced by Gardasil in China, despite growth in Keytruda sales [3]. Financial Performance - Merck has a market capitalization of approximately $212 billion and generated $64 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $20 billion and a net income of $17 billion [4]. Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the last five years, Merck's stock has shown negative one-day returns 60% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median drop of -2.1% and a maximum decline of -9.8% [2][6]. - In the last three years, the proportion of positive one-day returns increased to 50%, with a median of 1.7% for positive returns and -2.1% for negative returns [6]. Post-Earnings Return Strategy - Traders may consider establishing positions before earnings announcements based on historical probabilities, and evaluate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns post-announcement [5][7]. - Correlation data indicates that understanding the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns can guide trading strategies, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [7]. Peer Influence - The performance of peers can impact Merck's post-earnings reactions, with historical data suggesting that pricing may begin ahead of the earnings announcement [8].

Core Insights - Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) and Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) are utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) to innovate drug discovery across various disease areas, positioning themselves as leaders in the AI-driven biotech sector [1][2] Group 1: Drug Discovery and Development - Traditional biotech companies face high costs and failure rates due to a "trial-and-error" approach, leading to financial instability [2] - AI models can identify promising drug candidates with higher success probabilities, reducing research costs and improving efficiency [3] - Both companies generate additional revenue by licensing their AI platforms, allowing them to refine their models even when clinical candidates fail [4] Group 2: Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) - RXRX employs its AI-driven platform, Recursion OS, developed with NVIDIA, to test clinical compounds against a virtual library of human biology [5] - The company faced setbacks after discontinuing three key drug candidates but is now focusing on more promising candidates like REC-4881, which showed a 43% reduction in polyp burden in early phase II data [6][7] - RXRX has expanded its pipeline by acquiring Rallybio's stake in a joint venture for developing REV102, a potential first oral treatment for hypophosphatasia [8] - The company ended Q1 2025 with a cash balance of $509 million, expected to sustain operations into mid-2027 [9] - RXRX has collaboration agreements with major pharmaceutical companies, generating $15 million in collaboration revenues in Q1 2025, a slight increase from the previous year [10] Group 3: Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) - RLAY utilizes its proprietary Dynamo platform to target difficult protein targets, focusing on small-molecule therapies for oncology and genetic diseases [12] - The company has a narrower pipeline and implemented cost-cutting measures, reducing research costs by 80% and workforce by approximately 70 people [13] - RLAY ended Q1 2025 with a cash balance of $710.3 million, expected to fund operations into 2029 [13] - The company is preparing to initiate a phase III study for its lead candidate, RLY-2608, for metastatic breast cancer [14] - RLAY entered a licensing agreement with Elevar Therapeutics for lirafugratinib, allowing it to receive milestone payments and royalties [15] - The termination of a partnership with Roche has limited RLAY's revenue streams, as it no longer receives collaboration payments from Roche [16][17] Group 4: Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RXRX's 2025 revenues implies a 16% year-over-year improvement, while the loss per share estimate has widened slightly [18] - RLAY's 2025 revenue estimate suggests a 91% year-over-year improvement, but the loss per share estimate has also widened [21] - Year-to-date, RXRX's stock has decreased by 7.4%, while RLAY's stock has declined by 10.7%, compared to a 2% decline in the industry [23] Group 5: Valuation Comparison - RXRX is trading at 2.73 times its book value, while RLAY is at 0.88 times, making RLAY more attractive from a valuation perspective [25] - Both companies are trading below their respective five-year averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [25] Group 6: Competitive Landscape - RXRX and RLAY face competition from other biotech firms and tech-driven drug discovery companies, which may challenge their market position [29] - Despite challenges, both companies have the potential to revolutionize drug discovery and deliver breakthrough therapies at lower costs [30]

Core Viewpoint - Merck is set to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 29, with consensus estimates for sales at $15.77 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.99, reflecting a decline in earnings estimates over the past month [1][6]. Earnings Estimates and Trends - The current EPS estimate for Q2 is $1.99, down from $2.03 30 days ago, indicating a downward trend in earnings expectations [2]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters is 3.82%, with the last quarter showing a surprise of 3.26% [3]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Keytruda, Merck's leading cancer drug, is expected to drive top-line growth in Q2, with sales estimates for Keytruda at $7.90 billion [5][7]. - Other drugs like Lynparza and new products such as Capvaxive are anticipated to contribute positively to pharmaceutical sales [6][14]. Performance of Specific Products - Sales of Keytruda are likely boosted by its uptake in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer and continued demand in metastatic indications [7]. - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see mixed results, with lower demand in China but increased sales in other markets [10]. - Generic competition is impacting sales of certain products, such as Bridion, while new drugs like Winrevair and Capvaxive are showing promising sales growth [11][13]. Valuation and Market Performance - Merck's shares have underperformed the industry and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date loss of 13.9% [16][22]. - The company's price/earnings ratio of 9.05 is lower than the industry average of 15.25, suggesting potential attractiveness from a valuation perspective [17]. Strategic Developments - Merck's acquisition of Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion is expected to enhance its cardio-pulmonary pipeline [21][23]. - Despite the strength of Keytruda, there are concerns regarding the company's reliance on this drug and the need for diversification [20][24]. Long-Term Outlook - While Merck faces challenges such as declining sales for Gardasil in China and potential competition for Keytruda, the company is expected to maintain strong sales until Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [26][27]. - Long-term investors are encouraged to stay invested, while short-term investors may consider selling due to immediate challenges [27].