Core Viewpoint - The alternative asset management sector, including firms like KKR, Apollo, and Blackstone, has faced significant stock declines recently, but there are indications that better days are ahead due to strong inflows and positive earnings reports [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - KKR and Apollo stocks have decreased by 18% in the last 90 days and are also lower for the year [1]. - Blackstone reported strong earnings, with $35 billion in inflows into private credit for the quarter, although the stock saw a slight decline due to investor expectations for more growth in its real estate business [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The alternative investment management firms are experiencing significant inflows quarter after quarter, indicating continued investor interest and confidence in their performance [3]. - The broader credit quality across these managers remains strong, despite concerns about specific sectors like subprime auto lending [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Context - The subprime auto sector has faced challenges for several years, but the overall credit spectrum and broader economy are still performing well, as evidenced by recent bank earnings [7][8].

Core Insights - The expected value of initial public offerings (IPOs) for the firm's portfolio companies in the next 12 months is projected to be among the highest in its history [1] Group 1 - The firm anticipates a significant increase in IPO activity, indicating strong market conditions for its portfolio [1]

Well, it's been a rough year for investors in so-called alternative asset management managers. Those are private equity investment firms like KKR, Apollo, Blackstone, Hamilton Lane, and others. In fact, KKR and Apollo, those stocks down 18% in just the past 90 days.Both are lower for the year as well. But your market navigator says the better days are ahead. Let's find out why.Jed Ellerbrook is fun portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. It's not a group, Jed, that we talk about a whole lot. Hamilto ...

John, thank you so much for joining this morning. >> Great to be here. >> So, a surge in profits, deals abound, exits were robust.Is this the starting gun fired off. >> It does feel a bit of that. Uh Danny, it's great uh to be here to be talking about it.We had a heck of a quarter. What we saw here was we delivered for our customers. That's the most important thing in terms of returns.We really leaned into digital and energy infrastructure. We also saw big inflows as well, 50 plus billion dollars and all of ...

Core Insights - The investment banking sector is experiencing a surge in profits and deal activity, indicating a potential recovery phase following previous downturns [1][4][5] - Significant inflows of over $50 billion have contributed to a 50% increase in distributable earnings, highlighting a strong performance in digital and energy infrastructure [2][3] - The current environment, characterized by lower capital costs and tightening spreads, is conducive to increased M&A and IPO activities in the upcoming year [6][7] Deal Activity - M&A activity in the US rose by 64%, while IPOs saw a remarkable increase of 100% in the third quarter [5] - The company announced an $18 billion deal with Whole Logic, marking a notable achievement in deal-making [5] - Despite the positive trends, overall M&A and IPO activity remains low compared to historical levels [5] Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve's actions to lower rates and the overall improvement in the stock market are seen as favorable for deal-making [6][10] - Concerns regarding trade policy and inflation persist, but there are signs of stabilization in rental housing and labor markets, which could support further economic recovery [7][10][11] Private Credit Landscape - The private credit market is viewed positively, with a focus on delivering premium returns over liquid markets despite tightening spreads [23][24] - The company emphasizes that recent credit troubles are not indicative of the overall health of private credit, as they primarily involve non-institutional borrowers [16][21] - There is a strong demand for private credit from insurance clients, reflecting confidence in the sector [24] Future Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for the next year, anticipating continued growth in M&A and IPO activities [7][12] - The focus remains on organic growth rather than acquisitions, with a commitment to building capabilities internally [26][28] - The integration of AI technology is expected to enhance productivity and improve the work experience for analysts and associates [30][33]

Group 1 - Worldline SA is currently facing challenges, but there is no expectation of significant further offboarding of high-risk business moving forward [2] - The overall merchant business is anticipated to stabilize, indicating a potential for recovery in the company's operations [2] - The Value Lab, an investment group, focuses on long-only value ideas and aims for a portfolio yield of approximately 4%, highlighting a strategy that may benefit investors looking for value opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - The Valkyrie Trading Society consists of analysts who share high conviction investment ideas that are expected to yield non-correlated and outsized returns in the current economic environment [3] - This society emphasizes downside protection in their investment strategies, which may appeal to risk-averse investors [3]

Core Insights - Blackstone Inc. reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings, with distributable earnings of $1.52 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.24 [1] - The company's quarterly revenue was $3.09 billion, slightly below consensus estimates of $3.2 billion [1] Financial Performance - Fee-related earnings increased by 26% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, equating to $1.20 per share [2] - The firm experienced $54.2 billion in quarterly inflows and $225.4 billion over the past twelve months, indicating strong investor interest in alternative assets [2] Assets Under Management - Total assets under management rose by 12% year-over-year to $1.24 trillion [3] - Fee-earning assets under management increased by 10% to $906.2 billion, supported by strong institutional demand and resilient fundraising across core investment areas [3]

Deal Activity - Hong Kong bankers are experiencing a busy period [1] - Blackstone's "deal dam" is breaking [1] M&A Process - Warner Bros is set to share data with potential bidders [1]

Core Insights - The recent bankruptcies of auto lender Tricolor and auto-parts manufacturer First Brands have been misattributed to the private credit market, according to Blackstone executives [1][2][5] - Blackstone's CEO Steve Schwarzman emphasized that these failures are linked to bank-led credits rather than private credit, specifically citing over $2 billion in asset-backed securities arranged by major banks [3][4] - Despite a late-credit cycle leading to potential increases in defaults, Blackstone maintains that these bankruptcies are isolated incidents and do not reflect broader credit market issues [5][6] Private Credit Market Overview - Blackstone's non-real estate credit assets under management rose to $432.3 billion, with $36 billion in inflows during the last quarter [6][12] - Including real estate credit, Blackstone manages $500 billion in credit, an 18% increase from the previous year, making credit approximately 40% of its total $1.24 trillion in assets [7] - Retail investors contributed $3.6 billion in inflows to Blackstone's BCRED, its largest private wealth vehicle, which now has nearly $85 billion in assets under management [12] Performance and Expectations - Blackstone expects strong inflows in credit despite lower yields, as the firm anticipates continued interest from private wealth channels [13] - The firm reported returns of 2.6% for private credit and 1.6% for liquid credit in the last quarter, with BCRED having a 97% floating rate [14] - Historically, Blackstone has maintained low annual losses, averaging just 0.1% even during financial crises, and its investment-grade focused private credit platform has experienced zero realized losses to date [15][17]

Core Insights - Blackstone Inc. reported a revenue of $3.3 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.7% and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.62% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $1.52, which is a significant increase from $1.01 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of 25.62% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.21 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Fee-Earning Assets Under Management (AUM) for Private Equity stood at $235.00 billion, below the average estimate of $241.97 billion [4] - Fee-Earning AUM for Real Estate was reported at $282.58 billion, also below the average estimate of $290.07 billion [4] - Fee-Earning AUM for Hedge Fund Solutions was $83.45 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $81.75 billion [4] - Fee-Earning AUM for Credit & Insurance reached $305.19 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $303.61 billion [4] Segment Revenue Performance - Multi-Asset Investing realized principal investment income was $0.69 million, significantly lower than the average estimate of $4.32 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 3.4% [4] - Realized principal investment income for the segment was $62.54 million, exceeding the average estimate of $52.51 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 54.8% [4] - Realized performance revenues for Multi-Asset Investing were $744.95 million, surpassing the average estimate of $587.14 million, with a year-over-year increase of 117.4% [4] - Private Equity realized performance revenues were $559.38 million, significantly above the average estimate of $411.18 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 158.2% [4] - Real Estate realized performance revenues reached $132.79 million, exceeding the average estimate of $101.97 million, with a year-over-year increase of 70.2% [4] - Credit & Insurance fee-related performance revenues were $201.72 million, slightly below the average estimate of $207.27 million, with a year-over-year increase of 8.6% [4] - Realized performance revenues for Credit & Insurance were $40.12 million, below the average estimate of $63.9 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 6.5% [4] - Real Estate fee-related performance revenues were reported at $124.65 million, exceeding the average estimate of $113.38 million, with a year-over-year increase of 72.1% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Blackstone Inc. shares have returned -9.2%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]