Starbucks on Wednesday posted its first quarter of global comparable sales growth after nearly a year-and-a-half, helped by a recovery in international markets, though growth still eluded its U.S. ope... ...

Welcome back to Market on Close. We're taking a look at Starbucks. The stock is down 14% over the last 52 weeks and is due to report its earnings after the bell today.The coffee giant is expected to report fourth quarter EPS of 55 cents on $9.3% billion in revenue. Today's earnings will conclude the first full year in charge for Brian Nickel, who joined last September after leaving the same role at Chipotle. And now it's time for Options Corner.We're going to feature Starbucks ahead of their earnings. talk ...

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings results on October 29, with analysts predicting earnings of 55 cents per share, a decrease from 80 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The expected quarterly revenue for Starbucks is $9.35 billion, an increase from $9.07 billion a year earlier [1] Dividend Information - On October 1, Starbucks raised its quarterly cash dividend from 61 cents to 62 cents per share [2] - Following the dividend announcement, Starbucks shares fell by 2.1%, closing at $85.43 [2] Analyst Ratings - Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a price target of $84 [4] - Barclays analyst Jeffrey Bernstein maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $115 to $95 [4] - Wells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem kept an Overweight rating and lowered the price target from $105 to $100 [4] - Citigroup analyst Jon Tower maintained a Neutral rating and cut the price target from $99 to $84 [4] - Baird analyst David Tarantino upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform and raised the price target from $100 to $115 [4]

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings results on October 29, with analysts expecting earnings of 55 cents per share, a decrease from 80 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $9.35 billion, an increase from $9.07 billion a year earlier [1] Dividend Information - On October 1, Starbucks raised its quarterly cash dividend from 61 cents to 62 cents per share [2] - Following the dividend announcement, Starbucks shares fell by 2.1%, closing at $85.43 [2] Analyst Ratings - Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a price target of $84 [4] - Barclays analyst Jeffrey Bernstein maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target from $115 to $95 [4] - Wells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem kept an Overweight rating and lowered the price target from $105 to $100 [4] - Citigroup analyst Jon Tower maintained a Neutral rating and cut the price target from $99 to $84 [4] - Baird analyst David Tarantino upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform and increased the price target from $100 to $115 [4]

Core Insights - The company's fiscal fourth-quarter results are expected to show the impact of softer economic conditions, leading to a reduction in customer spending [1] Group 1 - The economic environment is influencing customer behavior, resulting in a pullback in spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current focus for Starbucks is on traffic numbers rather than earnings per share (EPS), with a willingness to accept some margin compression if traffic can be accelerated [2][3] Starbucks Analysis - The rollout of the Green Apron initiative is expected to impact labor costs more than traffic growth [3] - Pricing strategies are crucial, as Starbucks has increased prices without a corresponding improvement in customer experience [4] - There is a suggestion that introducing lower price points could help improve traffic numbers, despite the pressure from rising coffee prices [5] - Starbucks is exploring the possibility of selling a stake or the entire business in China, seeking the right strategic partner to improve performance in that market [6][7] Chipotle Analysis - Expectations for Chipotle's upcoming results are low, with a focus on traffic numbers similar to Starbucks [8] - The fast casual dining sector, including Chipotle, is facing pressure due to excessive pricing and increased competition from new concepts [8]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is expected to report a significant decline in fourth-quarter earnings, with a projected 31% decrease compared to the previous year [2] Financial Performance - The consensus EPS estimate for Starbucks is $0.55 [2] - Revenue is anticipated to reach $9.35 billion, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of 3.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Investor optimism is declining ahead of Starbucks Corporation's fourth-quarter earnings, with growing caution regarding 2026 expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - Consensus earnings per share (EPS) have decreased by 37% over the past 12 months, with ongoing revision risks [2] - The analyst projects fourth-quarter 2025 EPS at 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 57 cents [3] Same-Store Sales Projections - North America same-store sales are expected to decline by 1.0%, compared to the Street's estimate of a 0.5% decline [3] - International same-store sales are projected to increase by 2.0%, aligning with Street estimates [4] 2026 Guidance and Operating Costs - There is uncertainty regarding whether Starbucks will provide 2026 guidance during the fourth-quarter call, with expectations for a more comprehensive update at an Investor Day in early 2026 [3] - The analyst has lowered the 2026 EPS estimate to $2.34, which is the second-lowest among 31 analysts, compared to a consensus of $2.59 [4] - Per-store operating expenses are anticipated to rise by approximately 7% in 2025, with mid-single-digit growth expected in 2026, including $500 million allocated for labor [5] Competitive Landscape and Traffic Concerns - The analyst notes that tougher competition and ongoing price-value concerns may impact traffic, which is projected to be healthier in 2026 but still below consensus expectations [5] - Street models underestimate 2026 store operating expenses by only 2.5%, with every 100 basis points of weekly operating expense growth reducing EPS by roughly 10 cents [5] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares were trading lower by 1.31% at $86.07 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Investor optimism is declining ahead of Starbucks Corporation's fourth-quarter earnings, with growing caution regarding 2026 expectations [1] Earnings Expectations - Consensus earnings per share (EPS) have decreased by 37% over the past 12 months, with ongoing revision risks [2] - The analyst projects fourth-quarter 2025 EPS at 55 cents, slightly below the consensus of 57 cents [3] Same-Store Sales Projections - North America same-store sales are expected to decline by 1.0%, compared to the Street's estimate of a 0.5% decline [3] - International same-store sales are projected to increase by 2.0%, aligning with Street estimates [4] 2026 Guidance and Operating Costs - There is uncertainty regarding whether Starbucks will provide 2026 guidance during the fourth-quarter call, with expectations for a more comprehensive update at an Investor Day in early 2026 [3] - The analyst has lowered the 2026 EPS estimate to $2.34, which is the second-lowest among 31 analysts, compared to a consensus of $2.59 [4] Traffic and Competition - Management anticipates improved traffic from the "green apron service" initiative, which aims to enhance operational efficiency [4] - Despite projections for healthier 2026 traffic, it remains below consensus expectations due to increased competition and ongoing price-value concerns [5] Operating Expenses - Per-store operating expenses are expected to rise by approximately 7% in 2025, with mid-single-digit growth anticipated in 2026, including $500 million allocated for labor [5] - The analyst notes that the Street underestimates 2026 store operating expenses by about 2.5% [5] Stock Performance - Starbucks shares were trading down by 1.31% to $86.07 [6]

Private equity firm Boyu Capital has emerged as the frontrunner in Starbucks’s search for a partner in its China business, according to people familiar with the matter https://t.co/Sk2Vt4Px30 ...