Leo Nelissen is a long-term investor and macro-focused strategist with a passion for dividend growth, high-quality compounders, and structural investment themes. He combines big-picture macro analysis with bottom-up stock research to identify durable businesses with strong cash-flow potential. Leo also writes for Main Street Alpha, where he publishes deeper-dive research and actionable investment ideas for long-term investors.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AM, RE ...

Core Viewpoint - Oneok Inc. (OKE) is expected to report a quarterly earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49, reflecting a decline of 5.1% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 35.6% to $9.49 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.6% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions and have shown a strong correlation with short-term stock performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Revenues- Natural Gas Gathering and Processing' to be $1.46 billion, a decrease of 20.1% from the previous year [5] - 'Revenues- Natural Gas Pipelines' are expected to reach $355.94 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.5% [5] - The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- Refined Products & Crude' stands at $2.29 billion, indicating a 39.4% increase from the prior year [6] - 'Revenues- Natural Gas Liquids' are projected to be $2.47 billion, showing a significant decline of 45.3% year-over-year [6] Adjusted EBITDA Estimates - 'Raw feed throughput - Natural Gas Liquids' is estimated at 1,650.68 thousand barrels per day, up from 1,306.00 thousand barrels per day a year ago [7] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Natural Gas Liquids' is expected to reach $781.79 million, compared to $696.00 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Refined Products & Crude' is projected at $608.12 million, slightly up from $603.00 million year-over-year [8] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Natural Gas Pipelines' is expected to be $224.21 million, down from $417.00 million in the previous year [8] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Natural Gas Gathering and Processing' is estimated at $574.43 million, compared to $489.00 million last year [9] Stock Performance - Oneok shares have returned +15.6% over the past month, contrasting with a -1.3% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [9] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Oneok Inc. despite higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Oneok is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.49 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5.1%, while revenues are projected to be $9.49 billion, an increase of 35.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.62% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP for Oneok is -0.72%, suggesting analysts have become more pessimistic, and the stock holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Oneok exceeded the expected earnings of $1.46 per share by delivering $1.49, resulting in a surprise of +2.05%. Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [12][13]. Market Reaction Factors - An earnings beat or miss alone may not dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment. Stocks may decline despite an earnings beat or rise despite a miss [14][16].

Group 1: UnitedHealth Group - UnitedHealth Group operates the largest private health insurer in the U.S. and a health services platform called Optum, which provides various healthcare services [2] - The company anticipates losing up to 2.8 million members due to increased rates in response to rising medical costs [2] - The stock recently dropped 20% following Q4 results, attributed to a rising medical care ratio (MCR) of 91.5%, the highest since last year's cost spike [3] - A proposed 0.09% increase for 2027 Medicare Advantage rates was below industry expectations, adding to uncertainty [3] - Despite challenges, the company maintains a safe 3.2% dividend, supported by $16 billion in free cash flow, funding the payout nearly twice over [4] - Management expects earnings per share (EPS) growth of around 8.5% this year, with the stock trading at 15.5 times next year's earnings target of $17.75 per share [4] Group 2: Ryman Hospitality Properties - Ryman Hospitality Properties is a REIT that owns large-scale convention resorts and iconic country music venues, including five of the seven largest non-gaming convention hotels in the U.S. [5] - In Q3, Ryman reported a 15.5% drop in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per unit due to planned renovations, a shift to lower-margin groups, and increased cancellations [7] - Bookings are up nearly 8% for the year, and the stock offers a 4.8% yield with a 57% payout ratio, producing nearly double the cash needed for its dividend [8] - Shares trade at just 12 times AFFO per unit expectations for fiscal year 2025, providing compelling exposure to the growing country music scene in Nashville [8] Group 3: ONEOK - ONEOK has transformed from a regional NGL business into a fully integrated platform through three major deals worth over $25 billion, creating a 60,000-mile network for transporting gas and crude [9] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 37% year over year to $2.1 billion in Q3, driven by contributions from EnLink and Medallion assets, as well as higher processing volumes [10] - The stock is up nearly 15% over the past month, trading at just 11 times EBITDA with a yield of 5.1% [11] - Current spending on integration and pipeline repairs keeps free cash flow payout around 100%, but this is expected to improve as major projects complete this year [11]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh's potential appointment as the next chair of the Federal Reserve may positively impact the stock market in the near term due to his belief in AI as a deflationary force, which could lead to lower interest rates and higher stock trading multiples [1][2]. Stock Analysis ONEOK Inc. (NYSE:OKE) - ONEOK has a forward P/E ratio of 13.23x and an upside of 4.81%, with 42 hedge fund holders [8][13]. - Recent target price adjustments include a downgrade by JPMorgan to $84 from $87, while Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $104 from $107, and UBS cut its target to $103 from $114 [9]. - Despite these adjustments, 14 out of 24 analysts (~58%) maintain a "Buy" rating, with a median target price of $83, indicating a potential upside of 4.81% [11]. American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) - American Airlines has a forward P/E of 6.66x and an upside of 27.30%, with 43 hedge fund holders [13][17]. - The company reported record Q4-2025 revenue of $14 billion and full-year revenue of $54.6 billion, despite a $325 million impact from a government shutdown [14]. - Management projects a revenue growth of 7-10% in Q1 2026, with expected EPS of ~$1.70 to $2.70 per share, significantly higher than 2025 results [15]. - Analysts show a favorable outlook, with 15 out of 28 (~54%) having a "Buy" rating and a median target price of $17.32, suggesting a potential upside of 27.30% [17].

Core Viewpoint - ONEOK Inc. has increased its dividend payout to shareholders, reflecting a positive trend in its financial performance [1] Dividend Information - The company distributed a dividend of $1.07 per share on February 13, 2026 [1] - This represents a 3.88% increase from the previous quarter's dividend of $1.03 per share [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of extreme winter weather on the United States and hints at the importance of reliable sources for warmth during such conditions [1]. Company Insights - Scott Kaufman, known as Treading Softly, has over a decade of experience in the financial sector and serves as the lead analyst for Dividend Kings, focusing on high-quality dividend growth and undervalued investment opportunities [2]. - The goal of the analysis is to achieve substantial cash dividends and strong capital gains, contributing to a robust total return for investors [2]. Analyst Disclosures - The article includes disclosures indicating that the analysts have beneficial long positions in the shares of OKE and MPLX, either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives [3]. - The article is authored by the analysts themselves, expressing their own opinions without compensation from the companies mentioned [3]. Additional Disclosures - Seeking Alpha emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that no specific investment recommendations are provided [4]. - The views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, and the analysts may not be licensed or certified by any regulatory body [4].

分组1 - ONEOK (NYSE: OKE) has significantly outperformed the market by over 15% since being rated a Strong Buy in late October [1] - The focus is on undervalued and disliked companies or industries with strong fundamentals and good cash flows, particularly in the Oil & Gas and consumer goods sectors [1] - Energy Transfer is highlighted as a company that was previously overlooked but is now considered a strong investment opportunity [1] 分组2 - The analysis emphasizes long-term value investing while also acknowledging the potential for deal arbitrage in various sectors [1] - There is a clear preference for businesses that are easily understandable, avoiding high-tech and certain consumer goods sectors like fashion [1] - The article aims to connect with like-minded investors to share insights and foster a collaborative community focused on informed decision-making [1]

Company Overview - ONEOK, Inc. is a significant player in the energy sector, focusing on midstream services with a 60,000-mile pipeline network essential for energy resource management [1] Stock Performance - As of the latest data, the stock price of OKE is $78.96, showing a slight increase of 1.57% or $1.22 from previous trading [2] - The stock has fluctuated between $77.50 and $79.90 during the trading day, indicating active trading [2] - The stock has a 52-week high of $103.64 and a low of $64.02, reflecting notable volatility [4] Market Analysis - Robert Kad from Morgan Stanley has set a price target of $104 for OKE, suggesting a potential increase of about 30.87% from the current price [2][5] - The market capitalization of OKE is approximately $49.68 billion, positioning it as a substantial entity in the energy sector [4] Dividend Information - OKE has announced a 4% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $1.07 per share, which results in an annualized dividend of $4.28 per share [3][5] - The dividend payment is scheduled for February 13, 2026, to shareholders recorded by February 2, 2026, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder value [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oneok, Inc. is a leading player in the energy midstream sector, recognized for its strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - Oneok's stock price was $79.22 at the time of Morgan Stanley's announcement, which maintained an "Overweight" rating but adjusted the price target from $107 to $104, indicating a more conservative valuation [2] - The company recently announced a 4% increase in its dividend, raising the quarterly payout to $1.07 per share, resulting in an annual dividend of $4.28, with a dividend yield of 5.5% [3][6] - Oneok's market capitalization is approximately $49.84 billion, with a trading volume of 985,931 shares on the NYSE [5] Dividend Policy - Oneok's dividend is considered secure, supported by stable cash flows, and the company has nearly doubled its dividend over the past decade, distinguishing itself from many peers in the pipeline industry [4][6]