行业报告 | 行业点评 计算机 证券研究报告 场景广度决定，稳定币未来谁将领跑 7 月 19 日，美国总统特朗普正式签署《GENIUS 法案》，为美国境内合法 使用稳定币建立监管框架。特朗普称其可能是「自互联网诞生以来最伟大 的金融科技革命」。稳定币行业催化不断，针对后市演绎，我们做出以下判 断。 1、发币方是稳定币产业链价值链核心，而场景是关键中的关键 参考美元稳定币发展，中国香港稳定币发币方利润有望快速体现并且具备可 观的空间。货币价值的网络效应决定，发币方需与场景运营方深度合作才 能跑出。比如 Circle 与 Coinbase 深度合作，进而跃居行业 TOP2。 2、支付场景中，小商品城、中油资本所在的相关场景进出口总额超万亿 不同于美元稳定币以 Defi 项目交易为主，港元稳定币侧重在跨境支付。根 据义乌海关，2024 年义乌进出口总额 6689 亿元，对"一带一路"国家合金 进出口 4133 亿元，占同期义乌进出口总值 61.8%。中国 24 年原油进口金额 约 2.31 万亿人民币，管道天然气进口金额 1501.77 亿人民币。基于此，我 们看好小商品城、中油资本的卡位优势。 3、交易所和跨境支 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index (930986) decreased by 0.76% as of July 18, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) fell by 0.89%, with the latest price at 1.44 yuan, while it has seen a cumulative increase of 1.82% over the past week [3] - The Financial Technology ETF's trading volume was 1.21 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 9.58% [3] Group 2 - The Financial Technology ETF reached a new high in scale at 1.261 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 868 million [4] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past five days, totaling 185 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 36.93 million yuan [5] - The leverage funds have been actively investing, with a financing net purchase of 8.41 million yuan on the previous trading day [5] Group 3 - The Financial Technology ETF has achieved a 130.59% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 2nd out of 2917 index stock funds [5] - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 55.92%, with an average monthly return of 10.60% [5] - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.78, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [6] Group 4 - The Financial Technology ETF has the lowest management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10% among comparable funds [6] - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index, which includes companies involved in financial technology [6] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 51.2% of the total index weight [6]

证券研究报告 合规时代开启，全球竞赛加速 ——稳定币行业深度报告 行业评级：看好 2025 年 7 月 17 日 分析师 刘雯蜀 分析师 童非 研究助理 张致远 邮箱 liuwenshu03@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 tongfei01@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 zhangzhiyuan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523020002 证书编号 S1230524050005 摘要 2 1、稳定币：币值稳定的数字货币 • 稳定币是锚定法币、商品或加密资产的加密数字货币，通过足额抵押或算法调节供应量维持价值稳定。相较传统支付，稳定币依托区块链实现点 对点实时清算，交易成本低（如币安$ENA合约资金费率仅为0.25%，2023 Q3全球平均汇款成本为6.18%）、高效（只需几秒到几分钟内，传统 时间需3-5天）、门槛低（稳定币最低只需几美元即可转账）。稳定币已广泛用于交易撮合、DeFi、供应链金融及跨境支付，成为数字经济生态的 重要基石。 2、核心催化：香港《稳定币条例》8月1日实施，美国推进GENIUS法案 95% • 2025年6月6日，香港特区政府在宪报发布公告，指定202 ...

Capital Inflow - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing unprecedented capital influx, with 114 investment events in the first five months of 2025, surpassing the total of 77 events in the previous year, and raising 23.2 billion yuan, exceeding the total of 20.9 billion yuan in 2024 [4][6] - Government-led funds are entering the market, with over 70 billion yuan allocated to humanoid robots from local government funds [6][7] - The competition among local governments to establish 10 billion yuan funds for the humanoid robot industry has intensified, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen joining the "10 billion fund club" [6][7] Technological Breakthroughs - 2025 is marked as a pivotal year for advancements in humanoid robot motion control technology, with significant progress in hardware capabilities such as high-torque motors and tactile sensing systems [8][9] - The market for dexterous hands, a key interface for human-robot interaction, is projected to grow from 1.7 billion USD in 2024 to over 3 billion USD by 2030 [8] - Software advancements have enabled humanoid robots to achieve human-like decision-making capabilities, integrating AI-driven task planning and data-driven execution [9] Commercialization Progress - The commercialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, highlighted by a major procurement order from China Mobile worth 124 million yuan, marking a significant milestone [11][12] - Industrial applications are becoming the primary battleground for commercialization, with numerous automotive companies placing orders for humanoid robots [12] - Despite the surge in orders, approximately half are focused on public demonstrations and data collection, indicating a structural contradiction in the market [13]

Group 1 - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of July 17, 2025 [1] - Alibaba leads the list with a market capitalization of $2760.32 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group at $1871.42 billion and Pinduoduo at $1492.47 billion [3][4] - Meituan ranks sixth with a market capitalization of $978.45 billion, indicating strong performance among major players in the sector [4] Group 2 - Other notable companies include Oriental Fortune at $515.59 billion, SMIC at $466.49 billion, and JD.com at $456.09 billion, showcasing a diverse range of businesses within the top rankings [4][5] - Kuaishou ranks 11th with a market capitalization of $376.96 billion, while Tencent Music and Li Auto follow closely with $332.09 billion and $314.71 billion respectively [4][5] - The list also features companies like Xpeng Motors at $170.92 billion and iFlytek at $151.19 billion, reflecting the growing influence of electric vehicles and AI technology in the market [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing significant growth, as evidenced by the strong performance of the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index and related ETFs, driven by recent regulatory developments and market dynamics [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 17, 2025, the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index (930986) rose by 1.48%, with constituent stocks such as Hengyin Technology (603106) increasing by 10.00% and Tuorisi (300229) by 7.07% [3]. - The Financial Technology ETF (516860) has seen a recent price increase of 1.39%, with a latest price of 1.46 yuan [3]. - Over the past year, the Financial Technology ETF has achieved a net value increase of 125.31%, ranking 3rd out of 2915 index stock funds, placing it in the top 0.10% [5]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Financial Technology ETF has experienced a continuous net inflow of funds over the past four days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 76.39 million yuan, totaling 176 million yuan in net inflows [4]. - The latest scale of the Financial Technology ETF reached 1.238 billion yuan, marking a one-year high, while the number of shares reached 862 million, also a three-month high [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments - A seminar on RWA standards was held in Shenzhen on July 3, 2025, aimed at establishing a comprehensive technical specification system for RWA, transitioning China from a "follower" to a "global rule-maker" in RWA technology applications [3]. - On July 4, the People's Bank of China publicly solicited opinions on the draft business rules for the Renminbi Cross-Border Payment System, detailing account management, funding, and settlement processes for CIPS participants [3]. Group 4: Fund Performance Metrics - The Financial Technology ETF has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [5]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.78, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [5]. - The tracking error for the Financial Technology ETF over the past month is 0.034%, the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5]. Group 5: Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index accounted for 51.2% of the index, including companies like Dongfang Wealth (300059) and Tonghuashun (300033) [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **cross-border payment industry** and the potential of **stablecoins** to reshape this sector, which is valued in the trillions [1][2][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Opportunities in Cross-Border Payments**: The cross-border payment sector presents significant opportunities, especially for large enterprises and state-owned enterprises, as stablecoins are expected to play a crucial role in this transformation [1][2]. 2. **Stablecoins vs. Traditional Payment Systems**: Stablecoins are positioned to disrupt traditional payment systems, such as banks and SWIFT, by offering lower fees and faster transaction times [11][12]. 3. **Ecosystem Development**: The profitability in the stablecoin industry will likely concentrate among a few key players who can establish a robust ecosystem and achieve high transaction volumes [4][9]. 4. **Collaboration with Large Enterprises**: There is a strong interest in partnerships with large state-owned enterprises, although challenges exist in establishing direct communication and collaboration due to regulatory constraints [5][6]. 5. **Market Trends**: The stablecoin market is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential driven by the increasing demand for cross-border payment solutions [1][9]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like **Pulin Software** and **Changliang Technology** are highlighted as key players in providing payment and treasury management systems for multinational corporations, which could benefit from the adoption of stablecoins [9][18]. 7. **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory landscape in Hong Kong is seen as more favorable for stablecoin operations compared to mainland China, which could facilitate the growth of this market [6][17]. 8. **Diverse Application Scenarios**: The application scenarios for stablecoins are expected to expand, with participation from various players ranging from small businesses to large multinational corporations [19]. Additional Important Content - **Focus on Liquidity**: The success of stablecoins as a payment tool hinges on their liquidity and the ability to find suitable application scenarios [10]. - **Technological Infrastructure**: The development of payment interfaces and treasury management systems is crucial for integrating stablecoins into existing financial frameworks [14][15]. - **Cross-Border Trade Demand**: There is a growing demand for cross-border payment services among small and micro enterprises, which presents additional opportunities for service providers in this space [12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, emphasizing the transformative potential of stablecoins in the cross-border payment industry and the strategic positioning of certain companies within this evolving landscape.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the financial technology (FinTech) sector, particularly focusing on the capital markets and banking IT companies in China. The analysis covers 36 fund companies and 26 listed brokerages, providing insights into their revenue, IT investments, and personnel trends from 2019 to 2024 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Revenue and Growth Trends - For 2024, the overall revenue and operational metrics of the fund companies are expected to remain stable compared to 2023, with some indicators showing a decline, yet still better than 2020 [1]. - The total revenue of ten A-share capital market IT companies is projected to decline year-on-year in 2024, despite an increase in gross profit margin [3]. - Retail software companies are experiencing significant growth, with one company reporting a 60% year-on-year increase in revenue due to an acquisition in November 2023 [4]. IT Investment Insights - The growth rate of IT investments among brokerages is lower than revenue growth, attributed to budget constraints and the timing of budget approvals [2]. - In 2024, the IT investment of the six major state-owned banks is expected to remain flat, accounting for 3.52% of total revenue, a slight increase from 2023 [5][6]. - Despite a trend of reducing personnel, the number of technology staff in brokerages has seen a slight year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a focus on technology despite overall staff reductions [2][6]. Profitability and Challenges - The profitability of banks is under pressure, with a notable decline in net profit by approximately 20% due to reduced IT investments and extended project timelines [7]. - The cash flow for 2024 is expected to decline year-on-year, reflecting the overall revenue downturn in the industry [9]. Future Growth Drivers - The growth drivers for both capital market IT and banking IT in 2025 are anticipated to include innovation, artificial intelligence (AI), and exploration of overseas markets [9][15]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on AI to enhance operational efficiency, with various firms developing integrated solutions for smaller banks to improve their service capabilities [11][12]. Market Opportunities - There is a growing trend of companies exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, with some firms already achieving over 15% of their revenue from overseas [15]. - The competitive advantage of Chinese IT firms in Southeast Asia is highlighted, with successful project implementations in countries like Thailand [15]. Other Important Insights - The conference call emphasizes the importance of monitoring large project confirmations and the impact of AI on business restructuring within the financial IT sector [10][12]. - The overall sentiment towards the capital market remains optimistic, with expectations of improved performance driven by AI and new innovations in 2024 [16]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the financial technology industry in China.

Summary of Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call focused on the **stablecoin** industry and its implications, particularly in the context of recent legislative developments in **Hong Kong** and the **United States** regarding stablecoins and blockchain technology [1][3][6]. Core Points and Arguments - **Increased Attention on Stablecoins**: The market's interest in stablecoins has surged due to recent legislative advancements in Hong Kong and the U.S., alongside the potential listing of a stablecoin issuer in the U.S. [1][3]. - **Stablecoin as a Currency**: For stablecoins to function effectively as a currency, a stable monetary system is essential, which may involve a one-to-one correspondence with fiat currencies [4][5]. - **Global Promotion of Stablecoins**: The establishment of stablecoin systems by countries can enhance their monetary status globally, potentially challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar [6]. - **Payment and Settlement Systems**: The stablecoin payment flow system is crucial, involving both issuance and custody mechanisms, which are essential for the functioning of stablecoins [7][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies involved in the issuance and management of stablecoins, such as **JD.com** and **Central Online**, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [8][9]. - **Cross-Border Payment Systems**: Companies like **Newland** and various IT firms are expected to benefit from the development of cross-border payment systems enabled by stablecoins [12]. - **RWA (Real World Assets)**: The discussion also touched on RWA, which involves tokenizing physical assets to enhance liquidity and reduce transaction costs, presenting broader investment opportunities [13][16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: The most profitable entities in the stablecoin market are the issuers, who benefit from high yields on short-term U.S. Treasury securities [24]. - **Role of Exchanges**: Exchanges play a significant role in the growth of stablecoins, as seen with **Circle** and **Tether**, which have partnered with major trading platforms to increase their market presence [25]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The evolving regulatory landscape in both the U.S. and Hong Kong is crucial for the future of stablecoins and their adoption [3][6]. - **Potential of Hong Kong Stock Exchange**: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is seen as a key player in the RWA space, particularly for tokenizing stocks for trading [28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future potential of the stablecoin industry and related investment opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the stablecoin market, which is becoming an integral part of mainstream financial infrastructure, facilitating various financial transactions and settlements [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Technology ETF Performance - The financial technology ETF (516860) has seen a recent decline of 0.49%, with a current price of 1.44 yuan, but has accumulated a 3.74% increase over the past two weeks [3]. - The latest scale of the financial technology ETF reached 1.185 billion yuan, marking a one-year high, while the number of shares reached 823 million, a three-month high [4]. - Over the past year, the financial technology ETF has achieved a net value increase of 127.89%, ranking 3rd out of 2909 index stock funds [5]. Group 2: Stablecoin Market Insights - The stablecoin market is rapidly expanding, with a transaction volume of 27.6 trillion USD in 2024, surpassing Visa and Mastercard [3]. - The number of active stablecoin wallet addresses increased by 53%, from 22.8 million in February 2024 to over 35 million in February 2025 [3]. - Long-term exploration of a Chinese yuan stablecoin is anticipated, particularly in Shanghai, which is expected to lead in financial innovation [4]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Returns - The financial technology ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 76.39 million yuan, totaling 120 million yuan in net inflows [4]. - The ETF's historical performance includes a maximum monthly return of 55.92% and an average monthly return of 10.60%, with a 97.42% probability of profit over three years [5]. - The ETF's management fee is 0.50%, and its tracking error over the past month is 0.034%, indicating high tracking precision [6]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Hengsheng Electronics, collectively accounting for 51.2% of the index [7].