Group 1 - The article focuses on the Asia Value & Moat Stocks research service, which targets value investors looking for Asia-listed stocks with significant discrepancies between price and intrinsic value [1] - The service emphasizes deep value balance sheet bargains, such as net cash stocks and low price-to-book (P/B) stocks, as well as wide moat stocks that represent high-quality businesses [1] - The author provides a range of watch lists with monthly updates, particularly concentrating on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese corporate sector, particularly analyzing revenue exposure to various global regions and countries in light of geopolitical shifts and supply chain changes [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The database includes over 3,200 stocks, with revenue projections for 2025 compiled by more than 250 analysts, expanding coverage from approximately 290 to nearly 500 Japanese stocks since the end of 2023 [3][11]. - Japanese firms have an overseas revenue exposure of 40-50%, with a gradual increase noted even among non-manufacturers [11][18]. - The Americas account for the highest portion of overseas revenues at 18%, followed by Asia (excluding Japan and China) at 11%, developed markets in Europe at 7%, and China at 5% [18][22]. - Domestic-demand sectors have outperformed in the past year, aided by a stronger yen [11]. Sector-Specific Exposure - Sectors with high exposure to the US include rubber products, transportation equipment, and pharmaceuticals, with ratios exceeding 30% [32]. - High exposure sectors to China include electric appliances, textiles & apparel, and precision instruments [11][42]. - Mining shows significant exposure in EEMEA, while sectors like electricity & gas and land transport have minimal exposure [31][38]. Cost Exposure Insights - Japan accounts for at least 76% of total costs for 58% of the covered stocks, with 31% of companies having 0% overseas costs [52]. - The US is responsible for 26-50% of costs for 8% of the stocks, while exposure to Europe and other regions is modest [52]. Trends and Changes - The report indicates a shift in the range of target firms, which has affected the overseas revenue ratios, particularly for non-manufacturers [26][22]. - The number of stocks covered has increased significantly from 274 in 2023 to 477 in 2025, with a focus on small and medium domestic-oriented firms [14][12]. Investment Implications - Investors can align their portfolios with economic conditions in various regions by holding stocks with high exposure to those areas [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding both revenue and cost exposures in the current trade policy environment [51]. Additional Noteworthy Points - The report utilizes the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) for categorizing sectors but also considers the 33 industrial sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange for familiarity among Japanese investors [15]. - The analysis includes a detailed breakdown of revenue exposure by sector and region, providing a comprehensive view of potential investment opportunities and risks [50][49].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The operating profit for the fiscal first quarter was JPY 244.1 billion, a decrease of JPY 240.5 billion compared to the same period last year [2][4] - The full-year forecast for operating profit has been revised up to JPY 700 billion, an increase of JPY 200 billion from the previous forecast [2][4] - The net profit forecast for the year is JPY 420 billion, up by JPY 170 billion from the previous estimate [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Motorcycle operations achieved an operating profit of JPY 189 billion, an increase of JPY 11.3 billion year-on-year, driven by sales growth in South America [9] - The automobile segment reported an operating loss of JPY 29.6 billion, impacted by tariffs and nonrecurring expenses related to EVs [9][10] - Power Products segment saw a decline in sales, totaling 828,000 units, with growth primarily in Europe [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unit sales for motorcycles reached 5.143 million, with significant growth in Brazil and Vietnam [6] - Automobile sales declined to 839,000 units, primarily due to decreases in China and other Asian markets [6] - The forecast for motorcycle unit sales remains at 21.3 million, while automobile sales are projected at 3.62 million [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to improve its earnings structure and expand profits despite ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and policy changes [3] - There is a focus on localizing production in the U.S. to meet demand and mitigate tariff impacts [22] - The company is exploring collaborations with Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors to enhance business operations [62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the Chinese market, which has seen declining sales for 17 consecutive months, and emphasized the need for strategic adjustments [55][59] - The company remains cautious about the impact of tariffs and is actively monitoring the situation to adapt its strategies accordingly [20][64] - Future EV production timelines may be affected by recent losses and market conditions, with a focus on being prepared for the next fiscal term [80] Other Important Information - The company has acquired shares worth JPY 936.5 billion as part of its share buyback program [3] - The gross impact of tariffs has been revised to JPY 450 billion, reflecting ongoing assessments and adjustments [26][33] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Impact from tariffs and production strategy - Management confirmed that the reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15% is a positive development for the company, but uncertainties remain regarding future tariff applications [18][20] - The company plans to maintain a high local production ratio in the U.S. and may adjust production allocations to optimize operations [22] Question: Forecast assumptions regarding tariffs - The company has not significantly changed its assumptions regarding tariffs but is working closely with suppliers to understand the impacts [27][31] - The gross impact of tariffs has been adjusted based on detailed calculations, with expectations for a 15% tariff starting from September [33] Question: Sales decline in Asia and Europe - Management noted that competition from Chinese OEMs has intensified in Asian markets, affecting sales, and emphasized the need for hybrid model launches to regain market share [39][42] - In Europe, the company is reassessing its strategy due to historical production challenges and ongoing competitive pressures [42] Question: EV losses and pricing strategy - The company anticipates significant EV-related losses, with a total of JPY 250 billion expected for the fiscal year, impacting future production strategies [78][80] - Pricing strategies will be cautiously adjusted in response to market conditions and inflation trends, with ongoing monitoring of competitor pricing [66][69]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The operating profit for the fiscal first quarter was JPY 244.1 billion, a decrease of JPY 240.5 billion compared to the same period last year [3][5] - The full-year forecast for operating profit has been revised up to JPY 700 billion, an increase of JPY 200 billion from the previous forecast [3][5] - The net profit forecast for the year is JPY 420 billion, up by JPY 170 billion from the previous estimate [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Motorcycle operations achieved an operating profit of JPY 189 billion, an increase of JPY 11.3 billion year-on-year, driven by sales growth in South America [10] - The automobile segment reported an operating loss of JPY 29.6 billion, with sales impacted by declines in China and other Asian regions [10][11] - Power Products experienced a decline in North America and Asia, totaling 828,000 units sold, while Europe showed growth [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unit sales for motorcycles reached 5.143 million, with significant growth in Brazil and other regions [7] - Automobile unit sales were 839,000, reflecting declines primarily in China and other Asian markets [7] - The forecast for motorcycle unit sales for the full year is maintained at 21.3 million, while automobile sales are projected at 3.62 million [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to improve its earnings structure and expand profits despite ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and exchange rates [4] - There is a focus on localizing production in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance competitiveness [20][23] - The company plans to increase production capacity in Brazil to meet high demand, indicating a strategic emphasis on South American markets [57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the Chinese market, which has seen declining sales for 17 consecutive months, and emphasized the need for strategic adjustments [59][61] - The company remains cautious about the impact of tariffs and is actively engaging with suppliers to manage costs [34][36] - Future EV production timelines may be affected by recent losses and market conditions, with a focus on preparing for a launch in the next fiscal year [84] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a share buyback program amounting to JPY 1.1 trillion, with JPY 936.5 billion worth of shares acquired as of July 31 [4] - The forecast for the full-year dividend remains unchanged at JPY 70 per share [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact from tariffs and production strategy - Management confirmed that the reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15% is a positive development, but uncertainties remain regarding the implementation details [20][22] - The company plans to maintain a high local production ratio in the U.S. and may adjust production shifts to increase output [23][25] Question: Tariff assumptions for the fiscal year - The company has revised its gross impact from tariffs to JPY 450 billion, reflecting detailed calculations and adjustments [29][30] - Management is working closely with suppliers to understand the implications of tariffs on parts and components [34][35] Question: Sales decline in Asia and Europe - The decline in sales is attributed to increased competition from Chinese OEMs and varying government subsidies for hybrid vehicles [43][46] - Management is focusing on launching hybrid models in markets where they have not yet been introduced to regain competitiveness [44] Question: EV losses and future production - The company expects EV-related losses to total JPY 250 billion for the fiscal year, with ongoing assessments of production strategies [82][84] - Management is cautious about the timing of the Zero series EV launch due to market conditions and IRA impacts [84] Question: Price hikes and forecast assumptions - Price hikes are being considered cautiously, with management monitoring inflation trends and competitor pricing strategies [71][72] - The company remains conservative in its forecasts, particularly regarding exchange rates and tariff impacts [73][76]

Core Insights - Honda's first quarter operating profits fell 50% year over year, missing estimates due to U.S. auto tariffs and a stronger yen [1][2] - Revenue for the first quarter was reported at 5.34 trillion yen, slightly above the mean estimates [1][5] Financial Performance - Operating profit decreased to 244.17 billion yen, compared to LSEG mean estimates of 323.48 billion yen [2][5] - Revenue exceeded expectations, coming in at 5.34 trillion yen versus the estimated 5.25 trillion yen [5] Market Context - Japanese automobile makers have started reducing vehicle prices for shipments to the U.S. in response to a 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. [2] - In June, Tokyo's car exports to the U.S. saw a 25.3% year-over-year decline in value, despite a 4.6% increase in export volumes [3] Trade Relations - A new trade deal announced by President Trump includes a proposed reduction of tariffs on Japan-made vehicle imports to 15%, though the implementation timeline remains unclear [3] - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is actively engaging with President Trump to expedite the tariff reduction process [4]

Financial Performance (Q1 2025) - Operating profit decreased by 49.6% to 244.1 billion yen, compared to 484.7 billion yen in the same period last year[7] - Profit attributable to owners of the parent decreased by 50.2% to 196.6 billion yen, from 394.6 billion yen[7] - Sales revenue decreased slightly by 1.2% to 5,340.2 billion yen[7] - Operating margin declined by 4.4 percentage points to 4.6%[7] Financial Forecast (FYE 2026) - Revised operating profit forecast upward by 200 billion yen to 700 billion yen[3] - Revised profit for the year forecast to 420 billion yen[3] - Sales revenue forecast revised to 21,100 billion yen, a decrease of 2.7% from the previous year[8] - Operating profit forecast decreased by 42.3% to 700 billion yen[8] Shareholder Returns - Acquired 646.66 million of the company's own shares for 936.5 billion yen, achieving 85.1% of the planned acquisition[5, 9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Autos/Auto Parts/Tire Sectors - **Key Event**: Reports of a trade agreement for a 15% auto tariff between Japan and the US Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Agreement**: Media reports indicate a potential agreement on a 15% auto tariff rate, which includes an additional 12.5% tariff on top of the previously agreed 2.5% duty [1][4][8] - **Impact on Major Automakers**: - **Toyota Motor**: Expected earnings upside of approximately ¥500 billion, with a potential boost of around 12% to FY2025 operating profit estimate of ¥3.80 trillion, reducing gross tariff impact from ¥1.44 trillion to ¥980 billion [1][4][5] - **Mazda Motor, Subaru, and Nissan Motor**: Anticipated low earnings even with reduced tariffs, with ongoing tariff costs estimated between ¥200 billion to ¥300 billion [1][4][5] - **Honda Motor**: Minimal impact on profits due to limited exports of finished vehicles from Japan to the US, with a calculated tariff impact of around ¥330 billion [1][4][5] - **Auto Parts Sector**: Major suppliers like Aisin Seiki and Denso may experience a relatively greater reduction in tariff costs [1][4][5] Market Reactions and Future Considerations - **Market Re-appraisal of Toyota**: The market may reassess Toyota's stock due to its high export volume and earnings resilience, although the 15% tariff will still apply [1][5] - **Price Increases**: Subaru and other automakers have announced price increases of up to $2,000 per vehicle, raising concerns about the impact on sales and potential downside on US SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) in 2025 [1][5] Additional Important Information - **USMCA Framework**: The current framework remains unchanged, suggesting minimal benefits for Honda Motor under this agreement [1][4] - **Forecast Adjustments**: Current forecasts for companies under coverage factor in a maximum of 25% auto tariffs, with adjustments made based on the new tariff agreement [1][4][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the auto industry, focusing on the implications of the tariff agreement and its expected impact on major automakers and the auto parts sector.

Group 1: Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up, driven by foreign auto companies, particularly Japanese firms, following a new trade agreement that reduces tariffs on Japanese imported autos from +27.5% to +15% [1] - Major indexes are showing robust gains, with the Dow up +240 points (+0.54%), S&P 500 up +24 points (+0.38%), Nasdaq up +24 points (+0.10%), and Russell 2000 leading at +19 points (+0.87%) [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Toyota Motors (TM) is up +14% in early trading, while Honda Motor Co. (HMC) is up +11%, despite both companies facing expected double-digit earnings losses in upcoming quarterly reports [2] - AT&T (T) reported earnings of 54 cents per share, beating estimates by 3 cents, with revenues of $30.85 billion, up +1% from estimates, but shares are down -2.5% in early trading [4] - NextEra Energy (NEE) also exceeded bottom-line expectations with earnings of $1.05 per share, but revenues of $6.7 billion missed estimates by -7.28%, yet the stock is up +0.4% in pre-market [5] Group 3: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major Q2 earnings reports are expected after the market closes, including Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA), with GOOGL anticipating over +13% earnings growth and better than +11% revenue gains, while Tesla is expected to see declines of -25% on earnings and -12% on revenue [7] - Other companies reporting include IBM (IBM), Southwest Airlines (LUV), ServiceNow (NOW), and Las Vegas Sands (LVS), indicating a busy earnings season across multiple sectors [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up, driven by foreign auto companies, especially Japanese firms, following a new trade agreement that reduces tariffs on Japanese imported autos from +27.5% to +15% [1] - Major indexes are showing robust gains, with the Dow up +240 points (+0.54%), S&P 500 up +24 points (+0.38%), Nasdaq up +24 points (+0.10%), and Russell 2000 leading with +19 points (+0.87%) [3] Group 2: Company Earnings - AT&T reported Q2 earnings of 54 cents per share, beating estimates by 3 cents, with revenues of $30.85 billion, up +1% from estimates, but shares are down -2.5% in early trading [4] - NextEra Energy's Q2 earnings were $1.05 per share, also beating expectations by 3 cents, but revenues of $6.7 billion missed estimates by -7.28%, yet the stock is up +0.4% in pre-market [4] Group 3: Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major Q2 earnings reports are expected from Alphabet and Tesla, with Alphabet anticipating over +13% earnings growth and +11% revenue gains, while Tesla is expected to see declines of -25% in earnings and -12% in revenue [6] - Other companies reporting include IBM, Southwest Airlines, ServiceNow, and Las Vegas Sands, indicating a busy earnings season across various sectors [7]

Group 1: Joint Software Development - Honda Motor Co., Ltd. and Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. are in discussions to jointly develop and share a foundational software platform for advanced vehicle control systems to compete with leading U.S. and Chinese automakers in the software-defined vehicles (SDVs) market [1][9] - The two companies aim to introduce vehicles utilizing the new software in the latter half of the decade, emphasizing the need for massive data inputs for development and operation, making collaboration crucial for innovation and cost reduction [2] Group 2: Strategic Manufacturing Agreement - Nissan may begin manufacturing pickup trucks for Honda at its U.S. plants under a proposed strategic agreement, allowing Honda to diversify its U.S. vehicle lineup and mitigate the financial impact of new tariffs [5][6] - The proposed manufacturing agreement could enhance profitability for both firms, especially as recent tariff increases on Japanese imports are projected to reduce Honda's operating profit by ¥650 billion and Nissan's by up to ¥450 billion in fiscal 2025 [6]