🇺🇸 BREAKING: The Federal Reserve has announced they will host a conference on "payments innovation" on Tuesday, October 21. https://t.co/8t6BOKEo18 ...

Global Economic Outlook - 全球经济分裂为通胀和通缩两个极端，给经济带来前所未有的挑战 [2] - G20 国家的通货膨胀率仍然维持在 3.8%，预计至少在 2026 年才能达到中央银行的目标 [4] - 中国面临需求驱动型通缩，房地产市场崩溃导致消费者信心下降 [22][23][24] Inflation Drivers - 疫情后的通货膨胀是由前所未有的财政刺激、供应链混乱和宽松的货币政策同时冲击造成的 [5][6] - 欧洲央行的分析表明，2022 年企业利润占欧元区通货膨胀的三分之二，而历史平均水平为三分之一 [10] - 乌克兰和俄罗斯合计供应全球 30% 的小麦、20% 的玉米和 80% 的葵花籽油，战争扰乱了这些资源流动，导致商品价格上涨 [10][11] - 美联储研究估计，乌克兰战争直接导致 2022 年全球通货膨胀增加 1.3 个百分点，相当于全球经济额外增加 1.3 万亿美元的成本 [12] Deflationary Pressures in China - 中国房地产市场占经济的 30%，占家庭财富的 70%，房地产价格下跌 15% 到 30% 不等 [23] - 中国现在生产了全球 70% 的太阳能电池板、60% 的电动汽车和 75% 的电池，国内需求疲软导致产能过剩，只能以极低的价格出口 [25][26] - 摩根大通估计，中国的通货紧缩可能会使全球核心商品通货膨胀率降低 70 个基点 [31] Central Bank Policies and Divergence - 美联储在 18 个月内将利率从 0% 提高到 5.5%，这是 40 年来最快的紧缩周期 [20] - 中国人民银行正在放松货币政策，但由于信心不足和债务负担沉重，效果不佳 [41] - 各国央行政策分化，美国和欧洲的债券可能因降息而上涨，而中国的债券收益率受到抑制，日本的收益率则在几十年后首次上升 [43] Structural Inflationary Forces - 气候变化导致干旱摧毁农作物，洪水破坏供应链，热浪屠杀牲畜，所有这些都导致食品价格上涨 [35][36] - 能源转型需要大量的铜、锂、钴和稀土，对这些材料的需求正在爆炸式增长，而供应仍然受限 [37] - 由于对石油和天然气的投资减少，传统能源供应变得更加紧张，任何地缘政治冲击都会导致价格飙升 [37] Crypto Market Implications - 持续的通货膨胀，但又不足以触发 20% 的利率，对加密货币来说是一个有利的环境 [45] - 中国经济面临通缩，促使富裕的中国人寻求在中国大陆以外的价值储存手段，加密货币提供了一个后门 [46] - 各国央行政策分化造成波动和不确定性，这正是加密货币作为一种非相关资产发光发热的时候 [46][47]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US central bank should begin lowering interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months, but is open to a debate on the precise pace of reductions https://t.co/4xt5BfOzqM ...

So, let's get to Steve Leeman, who is with one of the potential Fed picks, who seemed to have gotten more popular uh as time has been going by and and even before he was mentioned, we had talked about him and and talking about cuts way before that. Uh Chris Waller. Hi, Steve.>> Yes, we had uh Joe and I am joined by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who because he's right here, he's my pick right now. Thanks for joining us, Governor Waller. Um I want to start off with what uh is is among the most interesting things ...

Legal & Procedural Aspects - Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Py 将举行新闻发布会，公布与 Fed Governor Lisa Cook 抵押贷款相关的新信息 [1] - Cook 的法律团队在一系列新的法庭文件中抨击了特朗普政府，Cook 声称白宫没有充分的理由解雇她 [1] - Cook 希望法院仅根据总统的命令做出裁决，并声称她被剥夺了正当程序 [3] - 司法部要求将 TTRO 转为初步禁令请求，该请求可上诉，以便直接向最高法院或通过上诉法院向最高法院提出上诉，以决定 Cook 是否可以留在 9 月份的董事会会议上 [8] - Cook 起诉了白宫、总统、联邦储备委员会和 Jay Powell，以寻求法院的命令，禁止 Fed 根据总统的信函将其免职 [9][11] Potential Conflicts & Public Perception - 如果 Cook 在下一次 FOMC 会议上投票降低利率，人们会质疑这是基于数据还是为了保住她的职位 [5] - Cook 面临困境，公开更多信息可能无法解决问题 [6] - 公众舆论非常重要 [4] Mortgage Allegations & Complications - Bill Py 提出的证据表明，Cook 拥有三处房产，并声称每处都是她的主要住所，并且出租了其中一些房产，这很难证明是合理的 [13] - 抵押贷款申请过程中提供的信息可能会发生变化，银行会询问房屋是否为主要住所，因为非主要住所的利率更高 [14] - 在某些情况下，例如在军队服役或为年长的亲戚或残疾儿童购买房屋时，可以购买房屋并将其列为主要住所 [16][17]

John, thanks. Governor Cook filed an expected brief this afternoon uh in the district court case to uh overturn her firing. She says in in the brief that govern it says Governor Cook did not ever commit mortgage fraud.calls any issues with mortgages repeatedly in this uh in this document, quote, facial contradictions. And any issues with these mortgages, she she says in the briefing, were included in documents previously disclosed to the Senate in her um nomination process and and her vetting charges agains ...

The confrontation comes as Trump seeks to reshape the Fed to be more amenable to his demands to lower interest rates. Here's what to know https://t.co/cKK5z3TnAj ...

The interest rates in the US are too high right now given the the health of the economy. If you have an economy that's changing rapidly for the better, it will produce more goods. Uh and that that is not getting uh accommodated uh within the Fed's policies.So the US should have a lower yield curve because the economy is so strong. That's not part of the Fed's model. Central banks tend to say no if things are really good then we raise rates.That's the reverse of what the the what should be going on. Final po ...

Fed Independence & Political Influence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at stake, potentially initiating a broader challenge to central bank autonomy [1][2] - The confirmation of Steven Moran, Trump's nominee, is a key event to watch, raising concerns about political influence on the Fed [2] - Appointing individuals who understand and respect the Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining its integrity [11] - Concerns exist that Trump appointees might take instructions from Trump, undermining the Fed's independence [7] - Removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook is viewed as a potentially illegal act and an assault on the Fed's independence [5][10] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The president desires lower interest rates, potentially as low as 1%, which is considered unconventional by most economists [9] - The Fed may consider lowering interest rates at its next meeting [9] - The attempt to remove Cook and the new appointment are factors influencing the economic outlook [10][11] Investigations & Due Process - Investigations into Fed governors should be conducted fairly, without political motivation [6][12] - The investigation into Lisa Cook appears to be a politically motivated "fishing expedition" [13] - If evidence of wrongdoing, such as mortgage fraud, is found, it warrants investigation, regardless of central bank independence concerns [6][14]

Trump’s original frustration with the Fed is its failure to lower rates as he wanted them to this year. Plenty of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle may well agree with the president that they’d like to see rate cuts https://t.co/WdD8VNhjXG ...