2024 was so significant. That's when Trump got elected by tilting over to the cryptos. And what we found out is crypto's got trumped. The key question is what's next.Maybe it's the stock market. But the fact is, gold and precious metals and steel and silver rallied so far so fast. That's never happened with stock market volatility so low.So I think what's happening now is we're turning into a year that's going to end up like 2008. It's great for traders. I used to be one and it's just getting started.So it' ...

Market Analysis by covering: . Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **Chinese economy** and its **2-speed growth model**, highlighting the divergence between strong sectors (exports/manufacturing) and weak sectors (consumption/property) [3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - The narrative regarding China's economic performance has shifted from a simplistic view of "China in recession" to a more nuanced perspective that acknowledges both strengths and weaknesses [3][10]. - The **strong track** of the economy, particularly in technology sectors such as AI and robotics, has gained more attention, while the **weak track** remains subdued [5][9]. - Key factors contributing to the narrative shift include: - **Re-evaluation of Chinese tech**: Increased appreciation for China's capabilities in innovative sectors [9]. - **Trade resilience**: Despite a 20% decline in exports to the US, overall exports remained stable in 2025 [9]. - **Easing of "Japanification" fears**: Concerns about prolonged deflation have lessened, leading to rising bond yields since early 2025 [9]. - **Weak US dollar**: The dollar index fell by 9% in 2025, allowing MSCI China to outperform the S&P 500 for the first time since 2020 [9]. - **US policies**: Current US trade and geopolitical policies have indirectly benefited China [9]. Additional Important Insights - The market's improved performance may attract more foreign investors, leading to a better understanding of China's economic landscape [11]. - A balanced perspective is essential; while the narrative of "China is winning" is gaining traction, it does not negate the ongoing challenges, particularly in domestic demand and deflation [12][14]. - The **CNY (Chinese Yuan)** is expected to remain passive, tied to the US dollar, until a significant domestic economic recovery occurs [23]. - The **2025 market rally** was primarily driven by multiple re-ratings rather than earnings growth, which remains muted due to the deflationary environment [12][15]. Future Considerations - The potential for a **fundamental recovery** in the Chinese economy is contingent upon significant demand-side stimulus [22]. - The narrative shift from "un-investable" to "partly investable" in the Chinese market, particularly in tech and export sectors, indicates a cautious optimism among investors [21]. - The weak track of the economy is likely to persist as long as the strong track remains robust, suggesting a prolonged period of 2-speed growth [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Economic Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on China's economic outlook as it enters the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) in 2026, emphasizing growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Growth Targets - Policymakers are expected to target "around 5%" growth for 2026 and "at least 4.5%" for the remainder of the 15th FYP period, with an anticipated real growth of 4.7% in 2026 amid ongoing deflation [4][6][18]. 2. High-End Manufacturing - The 15th FYP emphasizes advanced manufacturing and AI development, with progress noted in green technology and heavy industry. However, technological gaps remain, particularly in high-tech sectors [4][29][30]. 3. Export Dynamics - Nominal export growth is projected to slow to approximately 3.4% in 2026, with net exports contributing about 1.0 percentage point to GDP growth. Rising trade barriers and stricter enforcement are significant challenges, although China's cost advantage supports exports [4][70][54]. 4. Fiscal Policy and Consumption Support - The central government's budget deficit is projected at around 4% of GDP, with total deficits (central plus local) at approximately 11%. Fiscal support for consumption is expected to increase modestly to about 0.5% of GDP, focusing on subsidies for various sectors [4][9][80]. 5. Deflation and Economic Adjustments - CPI is expected to average 0.7% in 2026, with persistent PPI deflation due to excess supply. A shift in policy support towards consumption and services is necessary for durable reflation [4][10][6]. 6. Housing Market Correction - The housing correction is likely to continue without decisive measures to stabilize prices or stimulate demand. A comprehensive approach is needed to address the ongoing downturn in housing activity [4][11][78]. 7. Currency Appreciation - Modest, managed appreciation of the CNY is expected, influenced by a high current account surplus and capital outflows. Claims of undervaluation are considered overstated, with competitiveness driven more by efficiency and deflation [4][12][69]. 8. AI Adoption and Technological Development - China's AI+ initiative aims for broad integration across industries, focusing on mature-node silicon and advanced packaging. However, productivity gains depend on effective workflow integration and governance to manage labor market disruptions [4][13][46]. 9. Geopolitical Landscape - Elevated geopolitical risks characterize the start of 2026, with potential shifts in regional relationships. The response from China has been muted, but changes in ties with neighboring economies are anticipated [4][14]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the challenges posed by Western tech export controls and the need for China to enhance its self-sufficiency in critical technologies. The ongoing geopolitical tensions may further complicate China's economic landscape [4][50][68]. - The report also notes the importance of balancing fiscal support between consumption and investment, as weak income gains and high savings rates hinder consumer spending [4][83][80]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding China's economic outlook for 2026, providing insights into growth targets, manufacturing advancements, export dynamics, fiscal policy, and geopolitical considerations.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and the **RMB (Renminbi) currency** dynamics, particularly regarding its appreciation and implications for economic rebalancing. Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation and Economic Rebalancing**: The prevailing view that RMB appreciation will aid in rebalancing China's economy is contested. A significant appreciation could hinder the exit from deflation, negatively impact corporate margins, and slow wage growth. Sustainable rebalancing requires substantial fiscal easing to enhance consumption [2][6][34]. - **Current Macroeconomic Conditions**: The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging, with a real GDP growth rate of 4.5% in Q4 2025, marking a three-year low. Deflationary pressures are expected to persist into 2026, indicating that significant currency appreciation is not warranted under current conditions [34][35]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a growing bullish sentiment among investors regarding RMB appreciation, driven by strong export performance. However, this optimism may not align with the economic realities that suggest a stable RMB is preferred by policymakers [6][7][16]. - **Trade Surplus and Currency Strength**: China's trade surplus has increased to 6.1% of GDP, up 1.6 percentage points over two years, driven by a rise in exports relative to GDP and a decline in imports. This strong external balance supports a modest appreciation of the RMB against the USD [16][19]. - **Historical Context**: The report draws parallels with Japan's experience in the 1990s, where significant currency appreciation exacerbated deflationary pressures and led to a loss of export competitiveness. This historical lesson suggests that RMB appreciation could similarly harm China's economic structure [41][50]. Additional Important Points - **Policy Measures**: The Chinese government aims to maintain the trade-weighted RMB index stable, with expectations of it remaining in the range of 98-99 by the end of 2026. There is no intent for sustained appreciation, as evidenced by the stable range maintained since 2016 [8][10]. - **Fiscal Policy Constraints**: Policymakers prefer investment-driven growth over consumption, viewing fiscal expansion for consumption as a temporary boost that increases debt burdens. This preference complicates efforts to achieve sustainable economic rebalancing [50][51]. - **Social Welfare Reforms**: While the 15th Five-Year Plan indicates a shift towards consumption, significant reforms are expected to be gradual due to their complexity. Targeted subsidies and social welfare improvements are anticipated, but addressing the core issues of social security for households will take longer [52][51]. - **Current Account Balance**: The current account surplus is projected to remain wide at 2.9% and 3.1% of GDP for 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting ongoing weak domestic demand and a high savings rate among households [28][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy and RMB dynamics, highlighting the complexities and challenges faced in achieving sustainable economic rebalancing.

Economic Outlook - ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood forecasts a "Goldilocks" economic scenario in 2026, predicting real GDP growth nearing 5% alongside falling inflation, potentially leading to deflation, driven by an AI-led productivity boom [1][2] - Wood argues that the U.S. economy is emerging from a three-year "rolling recession" that impacted housing and manufacturing, with real GDP growth already exceeding 4% in late 2025 [2] Inflation and Productivity - Wood highlights declining oil prices, which may decrease by another 20-25%, and falling unit labor costs as indicators that inflation could surprise to the downside, possibly turning negative [3] - She asserts that productivity-driven growth is associated with falling inflation, contrasting with the consensus view that rapid growth leads to inflation [3] Housing Market - Wood expresses optimism about a housing recovery, supported by a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase program announced by President Trump aimed at lowering interest rates [3] - Homebuilders like Lennar Corp. and KB Home are reducing prices to clear inventory, which, combined with improving affordability and lower rates, is expected to drive a significant rebound in residential real estate [4] Asset Allocation - Wood differentiates between Gold and Bitcoin, suggesting that Gold prices may have reached "irrational exuberance" relative to money supply, while advocating for Bitcoin as the "ultimate diversifier" [5] - She presents data indicating Bitcoin's correlation to traditional asset classes remains near zero, arguing that asset allocators have a "fiduciary duty" to consider crypto assets for optimizing portfolio risk and returns [6] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices have seen year-to-date gains of 1.44% and 3.09%, respectively, while the Nasdaq 100 index has risen by 1.03% [7] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF closed higher, with SPY up 0.16% at $695.16 and QQQ advancing 0.083% to $627.17 [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **infrastructure and consumer goods sectors** in China, focusing on recent policy measures and economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Infrastructure Investment**: - The central government has increased the pre-approved budget for major infrastructure projects to **RMB 295 billion**, up from **RMB 200 billion** in 2025 [3][4] - Local government bond issuance plans for Q1 2026 are more aggressive, with a target of **RMB 665 billion**, compared to **RMB 422 billion** in 2025 [3][4] - A national VC Guidance Fund for emerging sectors has been launched with an allocation of **RMB 100 billion**, aiming to mobilize over **RMB 1 trillion** [3] 2. **Construction Sector Performance**: - There is an improvement in construction momentum, indicated by a rebound in cement shipments and a strong construction PMI in December 2025 [7][8] 3. **External Demand Resilience**: - Exports remained resilient in December 2025, with stable shipments to the US and robust trade performance with Korea [9][11] 4. **Weak Household Consumption**: - Household consumption growth has weakened, attributed to fading trade-in effectiveness and a negative wealth effect from declining property prices [13][18] 5. **2026 Trade-in Scheme**: - The new trade-in scheme for consumer goods has less subsidy per vehicle on average, with narrowed coverage from 12 categories in 2025 to 6 in 2026 [19] 6. **Inflation Trends**: - Headline CPI has risen due to increases in gold and food prices, while core CPI has softened [20][21] - The recent uptick in inflation data may be short-lived, with expectations of managed volatility in the currency [21][25] 7. **RMB Forecasts**: - RMB forecasts have been revised upward due to mark-to-market adjustments and robust export performance, although they remain slightly below consensus due to potential dollar strength and persistent domestic deflation [23][25] 8. **Economic Growth Projections**: - Strong export momentum is expected to provide a steady tailwind to the RMB, supported by easing trade tensions and a broadening global demand recovery [28] 9. **Domestic Economic Challenges**: - The domestic economy remains soft, with a strong current account surplus but weak capital flows amid ongoing deflation [33] Additional Important Insights - The pace of infrastructure bond issuance and local government debt swaps in Q1 2026 will be critical to watch [22] - The rollout of the consumer goods trade-in program and consumption momentum during the Lunar New Year holidays are also key indicators for the upcoming months [22] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and outlook of the infrastructure and consumer goods sectors in China.

Core Insights - China's consumer inflation increased modestly in December, indicating a slight uptick in consumer prices [1] - Factory-gate prices continued to experience contraction, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] Consumer Inflation - The consumer inflation rate showed a modest increase in December, reflecting a potential recovery in consumer demand [1] - This increase in inflation may influence consumer spending patterns and overall economic sentiment [1] Factory-Gate Prices - Factory-gate prices remained in contraction, indicating that manufacturers are facing pricing pressures [1] - The persistent contraction in factory-gate prices could signal challenges for profitability within the manufacturing industry [1]

Economic Indicators - Core inflation in December was up 1.2% year on year, unchanged from the previous month [1] - Consumer prices rose 0.8% year on year, the highest level since February 2023, following a 0.7% increase in November [2] - Monthly consumer prices grew 0.2%, exceeding the expected 0.1% gain [3] Industrial Performance - Factory-gate prices dipped 1.9% in December, better than the forecasted 2% decline, extending a deflationary streak beyond three years [1] - Industrial production growth is estimated to have edged up to around 4.9%, supported by a pickup in manufacturing activity [5] - The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.1 from 49.2, indicating a return to growth in manufacturing activity after eight months of decline [5] Investment and Consumption - Fixed-asset investment likely contracted by around 11.8% in December, worsening from an 11.1% decline in November [5] - Policymakers are expected to implement measures to boost consumption and stabilize the property market, although past efforts have not yielded significant results [6] - New home sales in floor space are estimated to fall by 7% in 2026 after an 8% decline in 2025 [6] Profitability and Market Dynamics - Industrial firms experienced a profit drop of 13.1% year-on-year in November, marking the steepest decline in over a year [7] - Carmakers have initiated a new round of price cuts and perks due to sluggish demand and the withdrawal of part of a tax incentive for electric vehicles [8]

Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - Veteran investor Louis Navellier warns against chasing the recent "junk rally" in low-quality stocks, advocating a return to quality stocks with strong earnings growth as the 2026 financial year begins [1] - Navellier predicts a "big flip" in January where quality companies with accelerating sales and earnings will regain market leadership, following a fourth-quarter mean reversion [2] - He highlights an increase in institutional buying pressure in data center stocks as an early sign of this trend [3] Group 2: Company Earnings and Growth Projections - Navellier is positioning his portfolio for the upcoming corporate earnings season, referring to it as "judgment day" for earnings [4] - Nvidia Corp. is identified as a top pick, expected to report a 66.7% increase in sales and a 71% jump in earnings, driven by new chip sales to China [4] - Palantir Technologies is forecasted to see a 64.1% earnings surge due to its role in AI implementation for government contracts [5] - Seagate Technology and Celestica are also highlighted as beneficiaries of the data center boom, with earnings expected to rise 37.6% and 58.1%, respectively [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Navellier expresses concern over the broader economy, predicting that deflation will be the primary story for 2026, rather than inflation [6] - He cites falling rental costs, declining condo prices, and low energy prices as indicators that the Federal Reserve should cut rates by at least 100 basis points to prevent a deeper economic slowdown [7] Group 4: Market Performance - In 2025, the S&P 500 increased by 16.65%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones gained 20.54% and 13.38%, respectively [8] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF showed positive premarket movements, with SPY up 0.24% at $684.82 and QQQ up 0.52% to $616.29 [8]