China’s sharp move away from deflation last month is a welcome development for Beijing, although it comes on the back of higher energy costs caused by the Iran war: Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/yUk9lYG5UE ...

China’s factory-gate inflation gathered momentum in April, fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that kept energy costs elevated and cemented the end of a nearly four-year deflationary cycle. https://t.co/R9xUeqIO35 ...

One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy shock that is being monetized by the Federal Reserve would steepen the curve, not flatten it. The Fed is not monetizing this energy shock.In our view, the bond market may be beginning to discount something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of artificial intel ...

Wall Street is positioned for stagflation. Cathie Wood thinks they have it backwards. In this month's "In The Know," ARK Invest CEO/CIO Cathie Wood lays out a framework where we believe inflation surprises lower (not higher), the dollar rallies (not crashes), the rolling recession ends, AI drives structural deflation the bond market is only starting to price, and a 30+ year base in US capital spending just broke to the upside. Real-time inflation: ~1%. Yield curve: flattening despite oil up 57%. Housing: 1. ...