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外汇波动是否推动加密货币需求-Global EM Strategist-Does FX Volatility Drive Crypto Demand
2025-11-04 01:56
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Emerging Markets (EM)** and the relationship between **foreign exchange (FX) volatility** and **cryptocurrency demand**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Neutral Stance on DXY**: The company has shifted to a neutral stance on the DXY index, indicating a balanced view on the US dollar's strength against other currencies [6][9][12]. 2. **Funding Currency Diversification**: Investors are encouraged to diversify funding currencies to enhance carry profiles, particularly considering EUR or JPY for long EM positions [6][9][12]. 3. **Demand for Cryptocurrencies**: Contrary to the belief that higher FX volatility increases demand for cryptocurrencies, the analysis suggests that demand actually decreases as FX volatility rises, indicating that cryptocurrencies are perceived more as risky assets rather than safe havens [6][9][20][41]. 4. **Emerging Markets' Positioning**: The EM markets are well-positioned for inflows due to good risk appetite and moderate foreign buying of local bonds year-to-date, with little change in country narratives [6][9][12]. 5. **Impact of FX Volatility**: A statistically significant negative correlation was found between FX volatility and crypto demand, with a 1 standard deviation increase in FX volatility leading to a 3.2% decline in monthly active crypto users [41][52]. 6. **Country-Specific Analysis**: The analysis indicates substantial cross-country heterogeneity in crypto adoption, with countries like the US, Russia, and Turkey showing higher engagement compared to others like China and Angola, which have restrictive regulations [32][41]. 7. **Future Research Directions**: The report suggests exploring alternative measures of country risk beyond FX volatility and differentiating between stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies to better understand demand dynamics [20][54][56]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Technical Support for Panama**: The report mentions that Panama has shown technical tailwinds and reduced downgrade risks, which could be beneficial for its credit outlook [5][74]. 2. **Korea's Corporate Reforms**: Anticipated reforms in Korea could lead to significant foreign equity inflows, positively impacting the KOSPI index, although the effects on FX and rates may be modest [4][73]. 3. **Global Crypto Adoption Trends**: As of 2025, the global active crypto app user base is heavily concentrated in a few large markets, with emerging markets like Pakistan and Nigeria accounting for significant shares of activity [22][23]. 4. **Regulatory Environment**: The evolving regulatory landscape for digital assets globally is highlighted, emphasizing the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies [56][57][58]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for emerging markets and the dynamics of cryptocurrency demand in relation to FX volatility.
X @Cointelegraph
Cointelegraph· 2025-11-03 16:30
🔎 RESEARCH: Tokenized Treasurys have crossed $8.6B and are shifting from passive yield to active collateral.Exchanges like Bybit and Deribit now accept tokenized MMFs for trading and margin, while banks like DBS are testing them in repo and credit markets.Swift, Chainlink and UBS have connected tokenized funds to the banking system using ISO 20022 messages; letting traditional settlement systems trigger blockchain actions.This marks tokenized Treasurys moving from crypto experiments to real financial infras ...
X @aixbt
aixbt· 2025-11-03 15:07
momentum finance launches tomorrow with 0% team unlock, 0% investor unlock at tge. controls 78% of sui dex volume, generating $177.5k daily fees. that's $64m annual revenue at $163m market cap if it opens at $0.80. binance, bybit, kucoin all listing simultaneously. zero insider supply for 12 months on a protocol that already prints fees. supply shock meets real revenue. ...
Gate.io and Bybit Data Reveals Traders Are Done With Risk Assets for Now
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-03 11:26
Core Insights - Major exchanges Gate and Bybit report a significant shift in user holdings from volatile cryptocurrencies to stablecoins, indicating a deteriorating risk appetite among traders [1][2] - User holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum on Bybit have decreased sharply, while USDT balances have surged nearly 28% as market volatility increases and expectations for a rate cut fade [1][2] User Holdings - Bybit's user BTC holdings fell to approximately 64,000 coins, a decrease of 3.13% or 2,068 BTC from September [2] - Ethereum holdings on Bybit declined by 5% to 542,200 ETH, losing 28,549 coins [2] - User USDT balances increased by 27.89% to approximately 6.389 billion, a rise of 1.393 billion [2] Market Conditions - The exodus from risk assets coincided with Bitcoin hovering near $108,000 and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggesting a slower path to policy relief [3] - Bitcoin slipped below $108,000, leading to a rebranding of October's narrative from "Uptober" to "Red October" as total crypto market capitalization fell by 3.1% to $3.69 trillion [7] Reserve Ratios - Both Bybit and Gate reported strong reserve ratios despite the shift in user holdings [4] - Bybit maintained a 103% reserve ratio for Bitcoin and 101% for Ethereum, while USDT reserves reached 110% [4] - Gate's total reserves were reported at $11.676 billion with an overall reserve ratio of 124%, and BTC reserves stood at 24,833 coins against user balances of 18,537 [5] - Gate's ETH reserves increased to 419,096 tokens, raising the excess ratio from 23.58% to 25.93% [5] - USDT reserves at Gate grew to approximately 1.58 billion, covering user holdings of around 1.33 billion with an 18.74% buffer [5] Asset Coverage - Gate's reserves now cover nearly 500 types of user assets, utilizing a Merkle Tree and zk-SNARKs algorithm for verification [6]
X @Bybit
Bybit· 2025-11-03 04:24
🌍 Friends, don't miss out!The #BGA team is here in Copenhagen with the UN, waiting for you! 🎉🎫Get your ticket now: https://t.co/flCkWMZzP9#BGAwardsBlockchain for Good Alliance (BGA) (@ChainforGood):@Cointelegraph @UNDP @vechainofficial @foundation_gsr @hetu_protocol @flock_io @MasChainMY @Bybit_Official @BybitEU @burnt_xion @adbc_ae @Mantle_Official @nordicblock @Cardano_CF @StellarOrg @MalaysiaBCW @activ8lab @blockchain_abc @NapulETH @MoodServices @BCNLfoundation @gbweekofficial @WiBTalks @AdamFlinter @Cha ...
X @Cointelegraph
Cointelegraph· 2025-11-03 02:30
⏱️ State of Crypto Tonight: Your 60-second week in review• Coinbase in late-stage talks to acquire stablecoin startup BVNK for $2B. Exchange doubles down on payment infrastructure.• EU Commission drafting proposal to give ESMA SEC-like oversight over crypto exchanges. Draft expected in December.• Bybit halts new user signups in Japan starting Oct. 31 as exchange adapts to emerging regulations. Existing users unaffected.• Nigerian fintech Flutterwave building cross-border stablecoin payment system on Polygon ...
X @Wu Blockchain
Wu Blockchain· 2025-11-03 02:16
Bybit has released its 27th Proof of Reserves (snapshot date: October 22). User BTC holdings stand at approximately 64k BTC, down 3.13% from the previous snapshot on September 22—a decrease of 2,068 BTC. User ETH holdings are around 542.2k ETH, down 5% or 28,549 ETH. Meanwhile, user USDT holdings have increased by 27.89% to approximately 6.389 billion USDT, up by about 1.393 billion USDT.https://t.co/vvrfrX3Xti ...