Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 120 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 16, exceeding analysts' expectations of 118 Bcf [2] - Total natural gas stocks reached 2,375 Bcf, which is 333 Bcf (12.3%) below the 2024 level but 90 Bcf (3.9%) higher than the five-year average [3] - Daily natural gas consumption increased to 98.2 Bcf from 94.2 Bcf the previous week, driven by residential, commercial use, and stronger power demand due to warmer spring weather [4] Natural Gas Prices - Natural gas prices ended the week flat at $3.334/MMBtu despite volatility, as traders balanced rising supply with cautious sentiment [5] - The market is experiencing oversupply pressures, but forecasts of warmer weather could shift the tone, potentially leading to tighter market conditions [7] Company Focus - **Gulfport Energy**: A natural gas-focused exploration and production company with over 90% of its production in natural gas. The company has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet and a focus on free cash flow [8] - **Coterra Energy**: An independent upstream operator with around 65% of its production in natural gas. The company has a projected earnings growth rate of 20.3% over the next three to five years [10][11] - **Antero Resources**: A leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook, having produced 306 billion cubic feet equivalent in the most recent quarter, with over 60% being natural gas [12]

Group 1 - Antero Resources reported stronger quarterly cash flows compared to previous years, indicating a positive outlook for its business [1] - The company has engaged in stock repurchases and significantly reduced its debt [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated $274 million of EBITDA, representing a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by higher gathering and processing volumes, with processing volumes setting a record at 1.65 Bcf per day [12][13] - Free cash flow after dividends was $79 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow after dividends [13] - Leverage declined to approximately 2.9 times as of March 31, 2025, indicating improved financial health [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an increase in gathering and processing volumes, with expectations for low to mid single-digit year-over-year growth in gathering volumes for 2025 compared to 2024 [12] - The capital expenditures as a percentage of EBITDA stood at 17%, showcasing the company's capital efficiency compared to peers in the midstream industry [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Appalachian region has seen a surge in natural gas demand, particularly for power generation and data centers, with expectations for significant gas supply requirements for decades to come [8][10] - The percentage of data centers expected to be powered by natural gas increased from 50% to 70%, indicating a growing market opportunity [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital efficiency and returning capital to shareholders, with plans to allocate approximately 65% of its EBITDA for dividends, debt reduction, and share repurchases [14][15] - The strategy includes a flexible capital allocation approach to direct funds to the highest return opportunities, with a focus on maintaining low debt levels [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for natural gas demand, particularly in the context of data centers and industrial uses in the Appalachian region [21][22] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities due to its significant infrastructure and investment-grade upstream counterparties [9][10] Other Important Information - The company has achieved substantial reuse savings from compressor station projects, totaling approximately $30 million at the Torrey's Peak station and over $50 million across three stations [6] - The company has secured materials and pricing for pipelines through 2026, mitigating potential impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic factors [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential for in-basin demand growth - Management noted ongoing discussions about local power demand, particularly for data centers, and expressed confidence in the company's infrastructure to support this growth [21][22] Question: Outlook for propane and risk mitigation strategy - Management reiterated confidence in the long-term outlook for propane, emphasizing its unique position in the residential and commercial markets [23][26] Question: Joint venture outlook and liquid-rich production - Management indicated comfort with current production levels and noted that future evaluations would depend on market prices and long-term outlooks [27][29] Question: Data centers commercialization and AM's benefits - Management stated that conversations are ongoing regarding infrastructure build-out to meet demand, but specifics are still early [34] Question: Capital allocation strategy and M&A opportunities - Management confirmed a continued focus on debt reduction and share buybacks while remaining open to strategic M&A opportunities [35][36] Question: LPG market impact on AM's volumes - Management indicated that current natural gas prices would not significantly impact production levels, maintaining a stable operational approach [40][41] Question: Cost optimization strategies - Management acknowledged potential opportunities for cost optimization but noted that discussions are still in early stages [42][43] Question: Water service expectations - Management confirmed expectations to service 70 to 75 wells as previously guided, anticipating similar volumes in Q2 [46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero Midstream generated $274 million of EBITDA in Q1 2025, representing a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by higher gathering and processing volumes, with processing volumes setting a company record at 1.65 Bcf per day [12] - Free cash flow after dividends was $79 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow after dividends [13] - Leverage declined to approximately 2.9 times as of March 31, 2025, indicating improved financial stability [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an increase in gathering and processing volumes, with expectations for low to mid single-digit year-over-year growth in gathering volumes for 2025 compared to 2024 [12] - Capital expenditures as a percentage of EBITDA stood at 17%, highlighting Antero Midstream's capital efficiency compared to peers in the midstream industry [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Appalachian region is experiencing significant growth in natural gas demand, particularly for power generation and data centers, with expectations for natural gas demand to double for powering data centers by 2030 [10] - The percentage of data centers expected to be powered by natural gas has increased from 50% to 70%, indicating a strong market trend [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Antero Midstream is focused on capital efficiency and returning capital to shareholders, with plans to allocate approximately 65% of its EBITDA for dividends, debt reduction, and share repurchases [15] - The company is well-positioned for future growth due to its investment-grade upstream counterparty and extensive natural gas and water systems in the region [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for natural gas demand, particularly in the Appalachian region, and highlighted ongoing discussions regarding local power demand [21] - The medium to long-term outlook for the company is viewed as increasingly positive, with a flexible capital allocation strategy to capitalize on high-return opportunities [16] Other Important Information - Antero Midstream has achieved significant reuse savings of approximately $30 million at the Torrey's Peak compressor station and over $50 million across all three stations constructed with relocated underutilized units [6] - The company has secured materials and pricing for its capital projects through 2026, minimizing impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic factors [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential for in-basin demand growth - Management noted ongoing discussions about local power demand, particularly for data centers, and expressed confidence in Antero Midstream's infrastructure to support future growth [21][22] Question: Outlook for propane and risk mitigation strategy - Management reiterated confidence in the long-term outlook for propane, emphasizing its unique position in the residential and commercial markets [23][26] Question: Joint venture production outlook - Management indicated that current production is running about 4% over nameplate capacity, with potential for reevaluation based on future prices and market conditions [28][29] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management confirmed a continued focus on debt reduction and share buybacks, while remaining open to M&A opportunities as they arise [35][36] Question: Water service expectations - Management expects to service a similar number of wells in Q2 as in Q1, maintaining guidance of 70 to 75 wells serviced [46][47]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company generated $274 million of EBITDA, representing a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by higher gathering and processing volumes, with processing volumes setting a record at 1.65 Bcf per day [10] - Free cash flow after dividends was $79 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow after dividends [11] - The company's leverage declined to approximately 2.9 times as of March 31, indicating a strong balance sheet [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an increase in gathering and processing volumes, with expectations for low to mid single-digit year-over-year growth in gathering volumes for 2025 compared to 2024 [10] - The capital expenditures as a percentage of EBITDA stood at 17%, highlighting the company's capital efficiency compared to peers in the midstream industry [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Appalachian region is experiencing significant growth in natural gas demand, particularly for power generation and data centers, with expectations for natural gas demand estimates to double by 2030 [8][9] - The percentage of data centers expected to be powered by natural gas has increased from 50% to 70%, indicating a strong market trend [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital efficiency and returning capital to shareholders, with plans to allocate approximately 65% of its EBITDA for dividends, debt reduction, and share repurchases [12][13] - The company is well-positioned for future growth due to its investment-grade upstream counterparties and significant infrastructure in the region [7][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for natural gas demand, particularly in the Appalachian region, and highlighted ongoing discussions regarding local power demand [19][20] - The medium to long-term outlook for the company is viewed as increasingly positive, with a flexible capital allocation strategy to capitalize on high-return opportunities [14] Other Important Information - The company has achieved significant reuse savings of approximately $30 million at the Torrey's Peak compressor station and over $50 million across all three stations constructed with relocated underutilized units [5] - The company has secured materials and pricing for its capital projects through 2026, minimizing impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic factors [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential for in-basin demand growth - Management noted ongoing discussions about local power demand, particularly for data centers, and expressed confidence in the company's infrastructure to support this growth [18][20] Question: Outlook for propane market - Management reiterated confidence in the long-term outlook for propane, emphasizing its unique position in the market and the steady growth expected in the residential and commercial sectors [21][24] Question: Joint venture outlook and liquid-rich production - Management indicated comfort with current production levels and stated that future evaluations will depend on market prices and long-term outlooks for gas and liquids [25][26] Question: Commercialization of data centers - Management stated that conversations are ongoing regarding infrastructure build-out to meet demand but did not provide specific details at this time [31] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management confirmed a continued focus on debt reduction and share buybacks while remaining open to M&A opportunities as they arise [32][33] Question: Water service expectations - Management confirmed expectations to service 70 to 75 wells as previously guided, with similar volume levels anticipated for Q2 [43]

Financial Performance - Antero Resources Corporation reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 78 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 90 cents, but an increase from 7 cents in the same quarter last year [1] - Total quarterly revenues were $1,353 million, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,399 million, but up from $1,122 million year-over-year [1] Production Overview - Total production in the first quarter was 306 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe), down from 312 Bcfe a year ago and below the estimate of 302 Bcfe [2] - Natural gas production, which accounted for 64% of total production, was 195 Bcf, a 3% decrease from 202 Bcf year-over-year and below the estimate of 201 Bcf [2] - Oil production amounted to 852 thousand barrels (MBbls), an 18% decline from 1,035 MBbls in the previous year and below the estimate of 1,008 MBbls [3] - C2 Ethane production increased by 10% to 7,442 MBbls from 6,760 MBbls year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of 5,761 MBbls [3] - C3+ NGLs production was 10,229 MBbls, a 3% decrease from 10,564 MBbls reported a year ago, but higher than the estimate of 10,122 MBbls [4] Price Realization - Weighted natural-gas-equivalent price realization was $4.55 per thousand cubic feet equivalent (Mcfe), up from $3.39 year-over-year but below the estimate of $5.24 [5] - Realized prices for natural gas increased 71% to $4.01 per Mcf from $2.35 a year ago, below the estimate of $4.40 per Mcf [5] - Oil price realization was $59.08 per barrel (Bbl), lower than $62.53 year-over-year but above the estimate of $57.60 per Bbl [6] - Realized price for C3+ NGLs increased to $45.65 per Bbl from $43.05 year-over-year, exceeding the estimate of $39.04 per Bbl [6] - Realized price for C2 Ethane rose to $12.70 per Bbl from $9.32 year-over-year, above the estimate of $8.55 per Bbl [6] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses increased to $1,081 million from $1,075 million year-over-year, below the estimate of $1,107 million [7] - Average lease operating costs were 11 cents per Mcfe, up 22% from 9 cents year-over-year [7] - Gathering and compression costs were 77 cents per Mcfe, a 7% increase from the prior year [8] - Transportation expenses rose 5% year-over-year to 65 cents per Mcfe, while processing costs increased 4% to 85 cents per Mcfe [8] Capital Expenditures and Financials - In the first quarter, Antero Resources spent $157 million on drilling and completion operations [10] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had no cash and cash equivalents and a long-term debt of $1.29 billion [10]

First Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation May 1, 2025 Antero Midstream (NYSE: AM) Legal Disclaimer Forward-Looking Statements: This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AM's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AM expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 3.4 Bcfe per day, aligning with guidance, and generated $337 million in free cash flow, benefiting from strong natural gas and NGL premiums [22][23] - Drilling and completion capital was $157 million, representing 23% of the full-year guidance [22] - Total debt was reduced by over $200 million during the first quarter, with a total debt of $1.3 billion, the lowest among peers [23][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average completed feet per day increased by 15% to 2,452 feet compared to 2023 [5] - The company averaged 12.3 completion stages per day, with a record of 18 stages achieved in March [6] - The NGL pricing outlook remains strong, with a projected premium of $1.5 to $2.5 per barrel to Mont Belvieu, an improvement from $1.41 in 2024 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. propane exports are at record high levels, 7% above the previous year, indicating no impact on U.S. propane demand [16] - The faster-than-expected ramp-up at the Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility has led to higher demand and pricing along the TGP 500 L transport [18] - The global LPG market is expected to adjust trade patterns, with increased U.S. LPG volumes heading to Europe and Asia [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a lean program with just two rigs and one completion crew to sustain production levels [7] - Antero is positioned to benefit from both LNG export growth and regional power demand through data center expansions [20] - The company has a strong organic leasing program, adding locations at low costs, and sees no immediate need for M&A [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundamentals of the business, highlighting the ability to pivot between share buybacks and debt reduction based on market conditions [23][24] - The company remains bullish on natural gas demand growth, citing low rig counts and muted associated gas growth from other basins [89] - Management noted that local demand would need to increase significantly for the company to consider growing production beyond maintenance capital [60] Other Important Information - The company has hedged approximately 9% of expected natural gas volumes through 2026, locking in attractive rates [8] - Antero's capital efficiency is highlighted by the lowest maintenance capital per Mcfe among peers at $0.54 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on LPG marketing agreements - The 90% figure refers to export volumes, with domestic sales also locked in at a high level [30] Question: Thoughts on M&A opportunities in U.S. shale - The company has a strong organic leasing program and sees no immediate need for M&A unless it is opportunistic and accretive [36] Question: Buyback strategy and future plans - The company is adopting a flexible approach, balancing between debt reduction and share buybacks based on market conditions [40][70] Question: Hedging strategy for 2026 - The company remains bullish and plans to continue hedging opportunistically while capturing premium pricing [46] Question: In-basin demand and local pricing dynamics - The company is focused on maintaining pricing based on NYMEX Henry Hub and is cautious about committing to local basis pricing without strong demand [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 3.4 Bcfe per day, aligning with guidance [21] - Free cash flow generated was $337 million, benefiting from strong natural gas and NGL premiums [21] - Total debt was reduced by over $200 million during the first quarter, with total debt at $1.3 billion, the lowest among peers [22][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Completed feet per day increased to an average of 2,452 feet, a 15% increase from 2023 [4] - Average completion stages per day reached 12.3, with a record of 18 stages achieved in March [5] - The company hedged approximately 9% of expected natural gas volumes through 2026 with new collars locking in a floor price of $3.7 and a ceiling of $5.96 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Antero's NGL pricing outlook remains strong, with guidance for a $1.5 to $2.5 per barrel premium to Mont Belvieu, an improvement from $1.41 in 2024 [8] - U.S. propane exports are at record high levels, 7% above the previous year [15] - The faster-than-expected ramp-up at the Venture Global Plaquemines LNG facility has led to higher demand and pricing along the TGP 500 L transport [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth through a strong leasing program, with no immediate need for M&A due to substantial inventory and low-cost production [32] - Antero is uniquely positioned to benefit from both LNG export growth and regional power demand through data center expansions [20] - The company plans to maintain a flexible approach between share buybacks and debt reduction based on market conditions [22][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the natural gas demand growth, citing low rig counts and muted associated gas growth from the Permian [90] - The company is pursuing a maintenance capital plan to maximize returns while monitoring local demand for potential growth opportunities [78] - Management highlighted the importance of local demand in driving future production growth, emphasizing the need for substantial demand before increasing volumes [58] Other Important Information - The company has entered into firm sales agreements on 90% of LPG volumes for 2025 at double-digit premiums to Mont Belvieu [9] - Antero's marketing strategy limits the impact of tariffs, with minimal exposure to the Chinese market [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on LPG marketing agreements - The 90% figure refers to export volumes, with domestic sales also locked in at a high percentage [28] Question: Thoughts on M&A opportunities in U.S. shale - The company has a strong organic leasing program and sees no immediate need for M&A, although it remains open to opportunistic deals [32] Question: Buyback strategy and future plans - The company is adopting a flexible approach to capital allocation, balancing between debt reduction and share buybacks based on market conditions [68] Question: Hedging strategy for 2026 - The company remains bullish and plans to continue hedging, with no significant changes to the strategy anticipated [42] Question: In-basin demand and local pricing dynamics - The company is focused on maintaining pricing linked to NYMEX Henry Hub and is cautious about committing to local basis pricing without substantial demand [84]

2025 Guidance - Antero Resources (AR) projects net production between 3.35 and 3.45 Bcfe/d [7] - Net natural gas production is expected to be between 2.16 and 2.20 Bcf/d [7] - Net liquids production is guided to be between 198,000 and 208,000 Bbl/d [7] - C3+ NGL production is projected to be between 113,000 and 117,000 Bbl/d [7] - Ethane production is expected to be between 76,000 and 80,000 Bbl/d [7] - Oil production is guided to be between 9,000 and 11,000 Bbl/d [7] - D&C capital expenditures are estimated to be between $650 million and $700 million [7] - Land capital expenditures are projected to be between $75 million and $100 million [7] Natural Gas Hedge Position - In 2025, AR has production payment swaps (VPP) for 44,000 MMBtu/d at a weighted average index price of $2.61/MMBtu [8] - For 2025, AR has NYMEX Henry Hub swaps for 100,000 MMBtu/d at a weighted average index price of $3.12/MMBtu [9] - In 2026, AR has NYMEX Henry Hub Collars for 320,000 MMBtu/d with a floor price of $3.07/MMBtu and a ceiling price of $5.96/MMBtu [9]