Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Banks Equities Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the performance and outlook of the Chinese banking sector, particularly state-owned banks versus joint-stock banks in the first half of 2025 (1H25) and implications for the second half of 2025 (2H25) [2][9]. Core Insights 1. **Performance of State-Owned Banks**: - State-owned banks outperformed joint-stock banks in loan growth during 1H25, with faster growth partly driven by discounted bills. They are optimistic about retail loan growth in 2H25, supported by new interest subsidies [2][9]. - Concerns regarding retail asset quality are expected to impact joint-stock banks more significantly than state-owned banks [2]. 2. **Wealth Management Growth**: - Retail Assets Under Management (AUM) growth in banks like CMB exceeded retail deposit growth in 1H25, indicating a rising demand for wealth management solutions. There is also an increasing interest in equity and hybrid mutual funds [3][9]. - CMB is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its strong wealth management franchise [3]. 3. **Bank Card Fees Decline**: - Bank card fees experienced a year-on-year decline in 1H25, with state-owned banks generally performing better than joint-stock banks. However, payment and lending activities on internet platforms improved, with Tencent reporting a re-acceleration in payment revenue growth [4][9]. - The shift from traditional debit/credit card payments to third-party platforms poses a risk for banks [4]. 4. **Risk Appetite Among Financial Institutions**: - Post 1H25, banks and insurers exhibited a risk-on sentiment, with corporate bond portfolios growing by 13.7% year-to-date as of July 2025, outpacing government or financial bonds [5][9]. - Insurers showed increased risk appetite through rapid growth in equity portfolios, supported by regulatory backing [5]. Investment Recommendations - Preferred stocks among mainland China banks include: - CCB-H (939 HK, HKD7.88) and CMB-H/A (3968 HK / 600036 CH, HKD48.18/RMB42.54) due to their strong capital positions and prudent risk management [6][9]. - Among Hong Kong financials, BOCHK (2388 HK, HKD38.68) and HKEX (388 HK, HKD448.40) are favored due to strong Southbound inflows and vibrant capital market activity [6][9]. Financial Performance Highlights - The report includes a detailed half-yearly comparison of key financial metrics for major banks, showing trends in net interest income, net fees & commissions, and operating income [11]. - Notable figures include: - Net interest income for major banks increased significantly, with CCB reporting RMB 313,576 million in 1H25 [11]. - Operating profit and attributable profit figures also reflect positive growth trends across various banks [11]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving landscape of payment systems and the potential impact on traditional banking revenue streams [4]. - The overall sentiment in the banking sector appears cautiously optimistic, with a focus on wealth management and risk appetite as key drivers for future growth [5][9].

Summary of Conference Call on China Banks Equities Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector in mainland China, specifically the performance of covered banks in 2Q25 compared to 1Q25 [2][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Net Profit Growth Expectations**: - Net profit growth for 2Q25 is expected to improve compared to 1Q25, driven by smaller-than-expected net interest margin (NIM) compression, stable credit costs, and effective cost control [2][5]. - Investment gains, operating expense control, and fee income growth are key contributors to this expected improvement [2][5]. 2. **Investment Thesis**: - Preference for brokers and insurers over banks among mainland China financials, with specific interest in HKEX and BOCHK among Hong Kong financials [2][5]. - Southbound inflow is anticipated to support share prices for banks and non-bank financials [2]. 3. **NIM Trends**: - NIM compression is expected to slow in 2Q25 due to ongoing deposit repricing and recent deposit rate cuts [5][17]. - The sector NIM decline narrowed in 2Q25 compared to 1Q25 [16]. 4. **Fee Income Growth**: - Fee income growth is projected to improve in 2Q25, supported by resilient corporate business and wealth-related fees [5][10]. - Banks with significant exposure to consumption and credit card businesses may face challenges [5]. 5. **Investment Gains**: - Investment gains are expected to improve in 2Q25, with banks likely to book mark-to-market gains due to falling rates [5][17]. - In 2024, investment gains accounted for 3-16% of revenue for covered banks [17]. 6. **Cost Control Measures**: - Mixed outlook on cost control, with banks expected to cut variable pay and administrative fees due to revenue pressures [5]. - CMB and CEB have outperformed peers in cost management from 2021 to 2024 [5]. 7. **Loan Growth Outlook**: - Overall loan demand remains weak, particularly in corporate and retail segments [5][25]. - Selected banks are de-risking consumption loan portfolios, with state-owned banks expected to outperform joint-stock banks [5]. 8. **Asset Quality**: - Mixed outlook on asset quality, with stable non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for corporate loans but potential increases for retail consumption loans [5][21]. - Some banks may accelerate the disposal or write-off of bad debts, improving NPL coverage ratios [5]. 9. **Market Sentiment**: - Household willingness to spend and invest has decreased in 2Q25, impacting overall credit demand [14]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the differentiation in profit growth among banks, driven by various factors including investment gains and fee income [5]. - The anticipated EPS dilution impact from capital injection is expected to manifest in 3Q25 [2]. - The conference highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes that could impact the banking sector [2][5]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call regarding the banking sector in mainland China, providing a comprehensive overview of expected performance and strategic preferences.

July 23, 2025 11:33 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Asia Summer School: Hong Kong Financials As the rate cycle turns and capital markets recover, we look at the fundamentals for Hong Kong Banks and HKEx. Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Nick Lord Equity Analyst Nick.Lord@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6746 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Richard Xu, CFA Equity Analyst Richard.Xu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6729 Chiyao Huang Equity Analyst Chiyao.Huang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4624 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates HKEX, BOCHK, and BEA as "Buy" with target price adjustments for HKEX from HKD 413 to HKD 438, reflecting positive market conditions and increased activity [5][9][38]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong financial sector is experiencing strong liquidity inflow despite subdued loan demand, with deposits growing 0.6% month-on-month in April and 4.1% year-to-date [2][11]. - The 1-month HIBOR has significantly decreased to approximately 0.6% in late May, which is expected to impact bank revenues and redirect deposits into investments, benefiting HKEX and banks' wealth management businesses [3][16]. - The capital market has seen a substantial increase in activity, with equity market average daily turnover (ADT) rising to HKD 242 billion year-to-date, an 84% increase from 2024, and total IPO funds raised reaching HKD 77 billion, approximately 8 times higher than the same period in 2024 [4][9]. Summary by Sections Liquidity and Loan Demand - Hong Kong sector deposits increased by HKD 706 billion year-to-date 2025, while loan growth was only HKD 49 billion, indicating that deposit growth is primarily driven by external inflows [2][11]. HIBOR Trends - The average 1-month HIBOR in May was 1.72%, significantly lower than the average of 3.82% from January to April 2025, suggesting a potential 10% reduction in BOCHK's earnings with a 100 basis point decline [3][16]. Capital Market Activity - The successful IPOs of companies like CATL and Hengrui, raising HKD 41 billion and HKD 10 billion respectively, are expected to stimulate further listing interests and enhance HKEX's turnover velocity, which is currently at approximately 155% [4][26]. Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for HKEX have been raised by 0.2% for 2025, 2.0% for 2026, and 3.3% for 2027, driven by increased ADT assumptions and listing-related revenues, partially offset by reduced investment income [5][28]. Key Financial Metrics - The report highlights that HKEX's consensus forward PE is 33.8x, slightly above its long-term average of 32.5x, indicating a favorable valuation relative to the market [30][32].