Asia Pacific Equity Research 30 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Insurance Capital raising cycle in the sector? Initial thoughts are that sector implications should be relatively limited According to Bloomberg news today, 30 ...

Summary of Hong Kong/China Insurance Conference Call Industry Overview - The Hong Kong/China insurance industry is on track for a high-quality transition with sustained healthy demand and improved Value of New Business (VNB) margins, alongside a better product mix [1][3] - The asset side is expected to benefit from a stable interest rate environment and a healthy stock market [1][3] Key Insights - **Market Outlook**: Despite some uncertainty regarding 3Q25 results, the outlook for Hong Kong/China insurance remains attractive [1][3] - **Investment Trends**: - Stock investment balance reached RMB 3.1 trillion in 1H25, accounting for 8.5% of overall insurance fund assets, the highest since 2022 [19][23] - Insurers are expected to provide over RMB 1 trillion in new inflows into the stock market annually for 2025 and 2026 [21][23] - **Performance Metrics**: - Group earnings showed healthy year-on-year growth in 1H25, with an increase in Return on Equity (ROE) across most insurers [28][30] - Life insurance business quality has improved, with strong VNB growth across peers [40][41] Company-Specific Highlights - **AIA**: - Projected insurance revenue growth from USD 19.3 billion in FY24 to USD 25.9 billion in FY27 [80] - Operating profit before tax expected to rise from USD 7.8 billion in FY24 to USD 10.8 billion in FY27 [80] - **Ping An**: - Remains a top pick due to its strong fundamentals and market position [79] - **FWD**: - Experienced a slight decline in stock price but maintains a solid market presence [8] Investment Performance - **Share Price Performance**: - AIA's share price increased by 26.5% year-to-date, while Ping An's increased by 12.8% [8] - Overall, the insurance sector has shown resilience with significant year-on-year performance improvements [8] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment is encouraging active stock allocations, which is expected to continue [19][23] Risks and Considerations - Short-term outlook remains defensive due to unclear 3Q results and potential impacts from interest rate changes [79] - Long-term prospects are positive, driven by healthy demand and improved margins [79] Conclusion - The Hong Kong/China insurance industry is positioned for growth with a favorable investment landscape and improving operational metrics, making it an attractive sector for investors [1][3][79]