Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business has shown strong performance, with underwriting earnings increasing by 3% in the first nine months of 2025 despite challenges from California wildfires [1] - The transition of leadership from Warren Buffett to Greg Abel is expected to maintain the operational excellence of the company, as Buffett has left Abel with a robust portfolio of businesses and equity stakes [2][3] Gates Foundation and Berkshire Shares - The Gates Foundation continues to hold a significant amount of Berkshire Hathaway shares, with 21.8 million shares valued at approximately $11 billion as of the end of the third quarter [3] - Buffett's annual donations to the Gates Foundation include substantial amounts of Berkshire shares, with last year's donation being 9.4 million Class B shares [4] Investment Strategy - The Gates Foundation's investment strategy is heavily focused on value stocks, with 59% of its marketable equity portfolio concentrated in just three stocks [5] - The foundation's holdings include WM (Waste Management) and Canadian National Railway, both of which are long-term investments that provide steady returns [9][13] WM (Waste Management) - WM holds a dominant position in the waste disposal industry with over 260 landfill locations, benefiting from regulatory barriers that limit competition [10] - The company reported an adjusted operating margin of 31.5% in 2025, an increase from 30% in 2024, and expects further margin expansion in 2026 [11] - Despite a disappointing revenue growth outlook of 5.2% for 2026, WM is focusing on operational improvements to enhance profitability [12] Canadian National Railway - Canadian National Railway is another key holding for the Gates Foundation, with 51.8 million shares valued at about $5.1 billion [13] - The company experienced a 2% revenue increase in 2025, driven by record grain transport volumes, despite challenges from tariffs affecting import volumes [14] - Management has authorized a share repurchase program and is reducing capital expenditures, which should support earnings growth and free cash flow [15][16] Investment Insights - The Gates Foundation's investment approach emphasizes owning a small number of high-quality companies, which can lead to significant long-term wealth accumulation [18] - Berkshire Hathaway shares are currently trading at around 1.55 times book value, which is considered a fair price, but not necessarily a bargain [8]

Company Overview - Manulife Financial Corporation (NYSE:MFC) is a global financial services provider operating in the Insurance and Annuity Products, Wealth & Asset Management, and Corporate & Other segments, with a presence in the United States, Asia, Canada, and internationally [4]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Jefferies analyst John Aiken raised the price target on Manulife Financial Corporation from $39.64 to $42.58, maintaining a Buy rating, indicating a potential upside of 13.5% from current levels [1]. - Barclays analyst Alex Scott increased the price target from C$49 to C$52 while keeping a Hold rating, reflecting a slight downside of approximately 1% from current levels [2]. Industry Outlook - The life insurance sector is viewed with cautious optimism for 2026, supported by steady cash flow generation, solid capital levels, and ongoing industry consolidation, which help mitigate pressures from spread compression and higher technology investments [3].

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Core Viewpoint - The bond market is signaling a potential rise in inflation, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions, particularly following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair [1][3]. Bond Market Insights - Shorter-duration U.S. Treasury bond yields have decreased, while longer-dated yields have increased, resulting in a bear steepening yield curve [2]. Investment Opportunities 1. Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway is well-positioned to handle increased market volatility under Warsh's leadership, with a record cash position of approximately $382 billion, primarily in short-term U.S. Treasuries [5][6]. - The company can continue to earn attractive yields on its Treasury holdings if short-term rates remain steady while long-term rates rise [6]. - Berkshire's insurance businesses could benefit from higher long-term yields, as they invest collected premiums in bonds [9]. 2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals - Vertex Pharmaceuticals is an exception to the negative impact of rising long-term bond yields on growth stocks, as it generates significant cash flow and does not require borrowing for operations [10]. - The company had a cash stockpile of $12 billion as of September 30, 2025, providing financial stability [10]. - Vertex's unique position in the cystic fibrosis market and potential drug approvals could drive stock performance, independent of broader market conditions [12][13]. 3. Walmart - Walmart is recognized as a safe haven during market volatility, benefiting from increased consumer focus on spending due to rising long-term Treasury yields [14]. - The company could see increased foot traffic as consumers seek lower prices amid inflationary pressures, despite potential cost increases [16].

Core Insights - MetLife's shares have underperformed over the past year, losing approximately 9% of their value due to mixed operating results and only beating earnings estimates sporadically [1] Company Performance - The company has faced challenges in achieving consistent operating results, which has contributed to its stock price decline [1]

AUDIENCE MEMBER: My question is for my children watching at home today and children in the audience.How should they look at stocks when every day in the media they see companies that have never made a dime in their life go IPO?WARREN BUFFETT: You don't really have to worry about, you know, what's going on in IPOs, or people making money.People win lotteries every day, but there's no reason to have that affect you at all. You shouldn't be jealous about it.I mean, you know, if they want to do mathematically u ...

Molina Healthcare ( MOH ) is a pure play health insurance company. Along with other players in the sector, Molina has been struggling with margin pressure resulting from claims inflation. Molina came out with its Q4 2025 results onThe author has an honours degree in economics and politics with a focus on economic development. With 36 years of experience in executive management he has extensive knowledge of insurance/reinsurance, Global and Asia Pacific markets, climate change and ESG. He invests in his pers ...

Core Insights - Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) is recognized as one of the 13 Best Long Term Low Risk Stocks to Buy Now [1] - Roth Capital Partners has raised its price target for Chubb Limited to $360 from $330, maintaining a Buy rating after the company's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations [2] - The company reported a strong underwriting performance with a combined ratio of 81.2% and an underlying combined ratio of 80.6% [2] Financial Performance - Chubb reported a higher fourth-quarter profit, driven by increased investment income and a significant reduction in catastrophe losses [3] - Pre-tax net investment income reached a record $1.69 billion, reflecting an 8% increase [4] - Catastrophe losses decreased to $365 million from $607 million year-over-year, indicating a reduction in earnings volatility for the company [4] - Core operating income rose to $2.98 billion, or $7.52 per share, compared to $2.45 billion, or $6.02 per share, in the same period last year [5] Market Context - Insurance spending remains robust despite broader cutbacks by businesses and consumers, highlighting ongoing efforts to mitigate risks from climate-related events and cyber threats [3] - Chubb Limited operates as a holding company based in Switzerland, providing insurance and reinsurance products globally [5]

Core Insights - Heavy snowstorms and ice in the Northeast are causing significant damage, including fallen trees impacting vehicles [1] - Many individuals mistakenly believe their insurance will cover damages from such incidents, but coverage can vary significantly [2] Insurance Coverage Insights - Standard auto insurance typically includes only liability coverage, which does not cover damage to the insured's own vehicle [5] - Drivers with only liability coverage are responsible for the full cost of repairs if their vehicle is damaged by falling branches or trees [6] - Homeowners' insurance generally does not cover vehicle damage, even if the vehicle is parked on the property [7] Liability and Negligence - The only potential coverage for vehicle damage from a fallen tree may arise if negligence can be proven, such as a property owner failing to maintain a dangerous tree [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market is currently considered historically expensive, with the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio indicating one of the priciest markets in history [1] - Despite high valuations, there are still investment opportunities available for those looking for solid value [1] Group 2: Chevron (CVX) - Chevron operates in the volatile oil and gas industry with an integrated business model that helps stabilize earnings [5] - The company has focused on efficient operations and a mix of short-cycle and long-cycle assets, including the acquisition of the Stabroek Block in Guyana, which offers low-cost, multidecade production capabilities with a break-even price of $30 per barrel [6] - Chevron is projected to have earnings per share of $9.09 in 2027 and $11.01 in 2028, despite trading at about 25 times this year's projected earnings [7] Group 3: Progressive (PGR) - Progressive is a leading automotive insurance company known for its strong underwriting profitability, consistently aiming for a minimum underwriting profit of 4% of total premiums written [8] - The stock has declined 30% from its all-time high due to increased competition in the insurance market and slower premium growth following inflation [9]