Vi e w p o i n t | 13 Feb 2026 18:25:31 ET │ 50 pages China Insurance FY25E Preview: Life NBV Robust; P&C CoR Improved; Earnings & DPS Solid Despite Challenges in 4Q25 CITI'S TAKE HK/China insurers' FY25E reporting season begins with AIA, Pru and ZhongAn on 19-March. For FY25E, we expect China life insurers to book very robust NBV LFL growth, with the top 3 CL/PA/CPIC at 38%/32%/28%, while we anticipate 35% for NCI (actual basis), 12% for Taiping Life and 70% for PICC Life. For the top 3 P&C insurers, we fo ...

Flash | 01 Feb 2026 15:55:03 ET │ 14 pages China Insurance China Reportedly Plans to Recapitalize Three Insurers; PICC Group H- share Could Benefit Most CITI'S TAKE According to Bloomberg (30-Jan-2026), China is considering issuing c.Rmb200bn of special government bonds to recapitalize China Life Group, PICC Group and China Taiping Group. We are not surprised as "capital replenishment for large insurers is on the agenda" was mentioned by the State Council on 7-May-2025. We believe such a move would be posit ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript on China Insurance Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Insurance** industry, specifically the **life insurance** and **property & casualty (P&C)** sectors, with an outlook for 2026E highlighting significant opportunities and challenges ahead [1][3]. Key Insights Life Insurance Sector - The life insurance sector is expected to experience **historic opportunities** due to a **wealth reallocation** as retail investors seek higher reinvestment yields from maturing bank deposits [3]. - **Margin stability** is anticipated, as a pricing rate reduction in September 2025 may counterbalance margin erosion from a shift towards participating policies [3]. - Preference is given to industry leaders such as **China Life** and **Ping An**, with expectations of a **K-shaped growth divergence** between larger and smaller insurers amid ongoing regulatory tightening [3]. Property & Casualty (P&C) Sector - The P&C sector is projected to achieve **4% industry premium growth**, with potential for further **cost of risk (CoR) enhancements** due to favorable regulatory conditions [3]. - Key factors contributing to this growth include: - **Expense rationalization** in non-auto lines - Strengthened regulatory oversight on auto insurance expense management - Gradual relaxation of pricing policies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) [3]. - **PICC P&C** is identified as the top player likely to deliver superior results, although the P&C sector is generally less favored in a bullish equity market [3]. Companies Mentioned - **China Life Insurance** (2628.HK; HK$31.72; 601628.SS; Rmb46.9) - **China Pacific Insurance** (2601.HK; HK$37.92; 601601.SS; Rmb43.1) - **China Taiping Insurance** (0966.HK; HK$23.0) - **New China Life** (1336.HK; HK$58.95; 601336.SS; Rmb77.83) - **PICC P&C** (2328.HK; HK$15.74) - **Ping An Insurance** (2318.HK; HK$66.9; 601318.SS; Rmb64.8) [4][5]. Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the **regulatory environment** as a significant factor influencing both sectors, with ongoing oversight expected to shape market dynamics [3]. - The analysis suggests that investors should consider the **K-shaped growth** trend when making investment decisions, as larger firms may outperform smaller competitors due to their ability to adapt to regulatory changes [3]. - The report also highlights potential **conflicts of interest** due to Citigroup's business relationships with the companies mentioned, advising investors to take this into account when evaluating the report [4][9][10].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Life and Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance in China - **Key Trends**: The life insurance sector is expected to experience significant growth opportunities due to a large volume of bank deposits maturing, estimated at over Rmb70 trillion, and a low-interest rate environment for reinvestment [22][2]. The P&C sector is projected to see a steady premium growth of 4% in 2026E, driven by auto insurance and personal P&C lines [3]. Core Insights Life Insurance Sector - **Growth Potential**: The life insurance industry is entering a "golden era" as retail investors seek higher returns from insurance products due to maturing bank deposits [2]. - **Margin Stability**: Margins are expected to remain stable, with pricing rate adjustments in September 2025 potentially offsetting margin erosion from a shift towards participating products [2][1]. - **Preferred Companies**: Industry leaders such as China Life and Ping An are favored due to anticipated K-shaped growth divergence between larger and smaller insurers amid regulatory tightening [2][1]. Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance Sector - **Premium Growth**: The P&C industry is expected to achieve a 4% growth in premiums in 2026E, supported by regulatory tailwinds and expense rationalization [3]. - **Cost of Risk (CoR) Enhancement**: There is significant room for CoR improvement, driven by regulatory measures including expense management and adjustments in NEV insurance pricing [3]. - **Top Performers**: PICC P&C is expected to benefit the most from these trends, potentially delivering best-in-class results [3][1]. Financial Projections - **China Life Insurance**: Target price raised to HK$38 from HK$27.70, with EPS estimates for FY25E/FY26E/FY27E increased by 105%/48%/46% respectively, reflecting improved investment performance [7]. - **China Pacific Insurance**: Target price increased to HK$44.40 from HK$40.50, with FY25E/FY26E EPS estimates raised by 27%/14% [9]. - **Ping An Insurance**: Target price lifted to HK$79 from HK$68, with slight adjustments to EPS estimates [20]. Regulatory Environment - **Regulatory Changes**: New regulations are being implemented to strengthen supervision over insurers' asset liability management and expense management, focusing on quality-oriented metrics rather than volume [27][28]. - **Impact on Life Insurance**: Regulations will require life insurers to maintain specific liquidity and coverage ratios, which could affect their operational strategies [27]. - **P&C Insurance Regulations**: The P&C sector is seeing a shift towards more stringent expense management and compliance with quality metrics [27]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The life insurance market is witnessing a shift towards bancassurance channels as consumers reallocate their wealth [44]. - **Product Mix Changes**: Insurers are increasingly shifting their product mix towards participating products, which may lower the cost of in-force books [41]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The anticipated interest rate hikes in China are expected to enhance investment returns for insurers, further supporting their growth [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and regulatory landscape of the life and P&C insurance sectors in China.

China Taiping Insurance shares dropped on Thursday due to the insurer’s exposure to a Hong Kong construction project tied to a deadly fire https://t.co/XqeTc5w6kl ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 12 November 2025 China Healthcare/Health Insurance Key takeaways from expert session: New opportunities in China's health insurance ecosystem We hosted an expert call on 10 Nov focusing on emerging opportunities in China Health Insurance ecosystems. Recent government directives – including updates to the Innovative Drugs Catalogue, ongoing DRG/DIP payment reforms, and the long-term fiscal pressure on the basic medical scheme from an ageing population – are driving new demand whi ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Chinese insurance industry, particularly life and property & casualty (P&C) insurance sectors, with insights into the expected performance for the first half of 2025 (1H25E) [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Life Insurance Sector - **Robust NBV Growth**: Life insurers in China are expected to report a robust new business value (NBV) growth of 18% to 43% year-over-year (yoy) in 1H25E, primarily driven by: - Strong momentum in the bancassurance channel as banks seek enhanced returns on maturing deposits [2][8]. - Margin expansion due to a pricing rate cap cut in Q3 2024 and expense rationalization across the agency channel [2][8]. - **Leading Companies**: - PICC Life is projected to lead with a 43% yoy NBV growth, followed by Ping An Life and New China Life at 39% each, and CPIC Life at 31% [2][8]. - Taiping Life and China Life are expected to have softer growth at 26% and 18% yoy, respectively, due to a focus on shifting towards par products [2][8]. Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance Sector - **Improvement in CoR**: Traditional P&C insurers are anticipated to see a year-over-year improvement in the combined ratio (CoR) by 0.9 to 2.0 percentage points (ppt) in 1H25E, attributed to normalized natural catastrophe (NAT CAT) trends, with economic losses from catastrophes declining by 46% yoy to RMB 54 billion [3][9]. - **Top Players' Performance**: - The top three players, PICC P&C, Ping An P&C, and CPIC P&C, are expected to see CoR enhancements to 95.3%, 95.8%, and 96.1%, respectively [3][9]. Earnings Trends - **Diverging Earnings Growth**: Earnings trends are expected to diverge between life and P&C insurers in 1H25E: - P&C-focused players are forecasted to enjoy higher earnings growth, with PICC P&C and PICC Group expected to see net profit growth of 29% and 20% yoy, respectively [4][10]. - Life insurers are expected to have varied growth, with NCI leading at 25% yoy, followed by CTIH at 15%, while Ping An is projected to decline by 8% yoy [4][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions and Ratings**: - China Life Insurance has been placed under a negative catalyst watch due to concerns that its 1H25E earnings growth may fall below expectations, with a forecasted modest growth of 5% yoy [25][26]. - Conversely, China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance are under positive catalyst watches, with expectations of decent NBV growth and CoR improvements [27][29]. - **Investment Strategies**: - Analysts maintain a "Buy" rating for several companies, including China Life and China Pacific, citing strong brand recognition and growth potential from ongoing reforms in the life insurance sector [83][92]. Conclusion - The Chinese insurance industry is poised for significant growth in both life and P&C sectors in 1H25E, driven by strategic shifts in sales channels and improved operational efficiencies. However, earnings performance may vary significantly across different companies, highlighting the importance of careful stock selection in this sector.

Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 July 2025 China SMid Insurance Key investor feedback post the initiation; ZhongAn remains top investor focus See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as onl ...