For Europe's oil ang gas firms geopolitics is in the driving seat - analyst Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock JP Morgan sees geopolitics reclaiming the driver’s seat for European oil and gas equities, arguing that a higher risk premium has helped push oil prices up, and dragged energy shares higher year-to-date in the process. The bank's analysts, in a note, said the sector’s recent performance has “re-coupled to rallying oil prices” after a stretch of “positive decoupling” in the second ha ...

Core Viewpoint - Equinor ASA announced a cash dividend of USD 0.37 per share for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders [1]. Group 1: Dividend Announcement - The cash dividend per share for the third quarter of 2025 is set at USD 0.37 [1]. - The NOK equivalent of the cash dividend is calculated based on the average USDNOK fixing rate from Norges Bank, which was 9.5267, resulting in NOK 3.5249 per share [1]. Group 2: Payment Details - The cash dividend will be paid on 27 February 2026 to shareholders on the Oslo Børs and to holders of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange [2]. - This announcement complies with the Continuing Obligations and the disclosure requirements of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act [2].

Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST) is recognized as one of the top crude oil stocks to consider amidst rising tensions in the market [1] Company Overview - Vista Energy is a prominent independent operator with significant assets located in Vaca Muerta, which is the largest shale oil and gas play currently under development outside North America [2] Recent Developments - On February 4, BofA resumed coverage of Vista Energy with a 'Buy' rating and a price target of $88, suggesting an upside potential of over 63% from the current share price [3] - This positive outlook follows Vista's announcement on February 2 regarding the acquisition of Equinor's onshore business in Argentina's Vaca Muerta basin for $1.1 billion, which includes a 30% stake in the Bandurria Sur production asset and a 50% holding in Bajo del Toro [3] Production Insights - The Bandurria Sur assets produced an average of 24,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in Q3 2025, while Bajo del Toro, still in early development, reported an output of 2,100 net boed [4] - CEO Miguel Galuccio stated that the acquired blocks enhance Vista's portfolio by adding both flowing barrels and a substantial inventory of productive, ready-to-drill wells, which will support the company's growth trajectory [4] Financial Projections - BofA views the acquisition favorably, estimating a potential internal rate of return (IRR) of 24% based on its Brent crude price assumptions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the best crude oil stocks to invest in amid rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, which have led to significant volatility in global crude oil prices [1]. Industry Overview - Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, handling approximately 16.7 million barrels per day in 2025 [2]. - A potential closure of the Strait could lead to major supply disruptions, significantly increasing oil prices [2]. - Kpler analyst Muyu Xu estimated that if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz for just one day, oil prices could surge to between $120 and $150 per barrel, compared to the current Brent crude price of just over $70 per barrel [3]. Investment Opportunities - The article identifies several crude oil stocks with significant upside potential, as determined by Wall Street analysts and hedge fund interest [6]. - YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) has an upside potential of 25.30% as of February 13, 2026, with 18 hedge fund holders [8]. - JPMorgan raised YPF's price target from $51 to $54, indicating an upside of over 44% from current levels [9]. - YPF signed a joint development agreement with Eni and XRG for a large-scale LNG project in Argentina, expected to deliver 12 million tons per annum of LNG capacity [10]. - Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST) has an upside potential of 36.75% as of February 13, 2026, with 21 hedge fund holders [11]. - BofA resumed coverage of Vista with a 'Buy' rating and a price target of $88, indicating an upside of over 63% from the current share price [12]. - Vista's acquisition of Equinor's onshore business in Argentina's Vaca Muerta basin for $1.1 billion is expected to enhance its production capabilities [12]. - The Bandurria Sur assets produced an average of 24,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in Q3 2025, while Bajo del Toro reported an output of 2,100 net boed [13].

Core Viewpoint - Equinor has made a significant oil and gas discovery in the Granat prospect located in the North Sea, approximately 190 kilometers northwest of Bergen, Norway [1][2]. Group 1: Discovery Details - Preliminary estimates suggest the discovery contains between 0.2 million and 0.6 million standard cubic meters of recoverable oil equivalent, translating to approximately 1.3 to 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent [2]. - Equinor is the operator of the Granat prospect, holding a 51% stake, while Petoro, a state-owned company, owns 30%, and OMV Norge holds the remaining 19% [2]. Group 2: Future Plans - The licensees are considering connecting the new discovery to existing infrastructure in the nearby Gullfaks area, which could enhance the economic viability of the find [3].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently characterized by a split sentiment, with bears dominating the narrative due to oversupply, while bulls remain optimistic about potential geopolitical developments that could tighten the market [1][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Over the past two years, oil supply has significantly outpaced demand, leading to an increase in global inventories by approximately 477 million barrels, or 1.3 million barrels per day, primarily driven by higher production from the US, Brazil, and OPEC+ [3][12]. - Despite healthy annual demand growth of nearly 1 million barrels per day, the excess output remains a concern for market participants [3][12]. - Preliminary data indicates that stockpiling has continued into early 2026, although the increase in inventories has been less than anticipated due to supply outages, including a drop in global production by over 1 million barrels in January due to adverse weather and operational disruptions [4][13]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape plays a crucial role in oil market dynamics, with traders closely monitoring the actions of key political figures, including US and Russian leaders, as well as developments in Iran [8][9]. - The bulls argue that Russia and Iran may eventually need to cut production, which could tighten the global market, while the bears contend that surplus barrels will eventually find buyers, particularly in China, if geopolitical tensions ease [9][10]. Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - Currently, oil prices are stable, fluctuating between $60 and $70 per barrel, as the market awaits a catalyst to drive significant price movements [10][11]. - The bulls believe that if China continues to build its strategic reserves, it could absorb surplus barrels without significantly impacting benchmark prices [7][10]. - The risk profile appears to favor the bulls, as the potential upside from geopolitical conflicts could lead to substantial price increases, while the downside is limited [11].

Core Viewpoint - Equinor ASA's shares will be traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange excluding the third quarter 2025 cash dividend starting today [1] Dividend Information - Ex-dividend date is set for 16 February 2026 [1] - The announced dividend amount is 0.37 USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - BP Plc is undergoing a strategic shift to strengthen its balance sheet by pausing its $750 million quarterly share buyback program amidst activist investor pressure and a leadership transition [1][6]. Financial Performance - BP reported adjusted earnings of 60 cents per American depositary share, slightly above the consensus estimate of 59 cents [3]. - Total revenue was $47.38 billion, falling short of the anticipated $49.36 billion [3]. - Operating cash flow increased to $7.60 billion, indicating positive momentum in cash generation [3][6]. Debt Management - The company's net debt stood at $22.2 billion at the end of the previous year, with a target to reduce it to between $14 billion and $18 billion by 2027 [2][6]. - BP's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $13 billion and $13.5 billion, with deeper cost cuts planned [4]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement to halt buybacks, BP's shares fell by approximately 5% [2]. - The stock has shown volatility, with a recent price increase of $1.58, or 4.27%, and has fluctuated between $37.73 and $38.82 during the day [5]. - BP's market capitalization is approximately $101.1 billion [5]. Strategic Context - The decision to pause buybacks aligns with similar actions by peers like Equinor and Shell, who are also facing weaker results due to lower crude prices [4]. - BP remains focused on its long-term financial goals, including managing capital expenditures effectively [5].

Core Insights - Equinor (NYSE: EQNR) possesses one of the strongest portfolios among major oil companies, featuring a significant renewable energy segment, strategically positioned natural gas assets, and robust core oil production [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Equinor has outperformed since the last recommendation, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence [2] - The company is recognized for its extensive renewable portfolio, which positions it favorably in the transition to sustainable energy [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Value Portfolio focuses on constructing retirement portfolios through a fact-based research approach, which includes thorough analysis of 10Ks, analyst commentary, market reports, and investor presentations [2] - The Retirement Forum, led by a seasoned investment group, offers model portfolios, macroeconomic overviews, and detailed company analyses to assist investors in maximizing returns [2]

Core Insights - Equinor ASA (EQNR) has signed a five-year gas supply agreement with Dutch gas grid operator Eneco to deliver up to 0.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually starting February 1, 2026 [1][7] - The agreement includes the provision of 'guarantees of origin' certificates, which indicate that the gas is produced with lower carbon emissions, contributing to a reduction of over 10% in Eneco's reported CO2 emissions [2][7] - This deal enhances energy relations between Norway and the Netherlands, bolsters Dutch energy security, and provides stability and improved cash flow for Equinor [3][7] Industry Context - Current West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices are below $65 per barrel, indicating a potentially easing business environment for Equinor's upstream segment, although predictions suggest further price decreases may pressure the upstream business [4] - Other major players in the integrated oil and gas sector, such as Chevron Corporation (CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), and BP p.l.c. (BP), are also facing similar crude price volatility, with each holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [5][6]