Core Viewpoint - Investors often focus on high dividend yields without considering the long-term sustainability of those yields, leading to potential misvaluations in stocks like AGNC Investment Corp, ARMOUR Residential, and Orchid Island Capital [1][2] Company Analysis - AGNC Investment Corp trades at a significant premium to its tangible book value, attracting investors primarily due to its high yield, which is not a thorough research approach [2][18] - The earnings of AGNC appear strong due to existing hedges from low interest rates, but these hedges are expiring, leading to an increase in the cost of funds [3][8] - Even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, AGNC's cost of funds is expected to rise because most of its funding costs are locked in through swaps [4][5] - AGNC's hedge portfolio includes a substantial amount of interest rate swaps, with $47.8 billion in long positions, which are crucial for managing interest expenses [7][8] - The yield on AGNC's assets is increasing, but the cost of funds is rising faster, resulting in a declining net interest spread and lower coverage ratio for dividends compared to two years ago [11][14] Comparative Analysis - ARMOUR Residential and Orchid Island Capital are seen as less favorable compared to AGNC, with similar risks but poorer decision-making and performance [14][19] - Preferred shares and baby bonds in the sector are viewed as more stable investment options, offering yields of 9% to 10% without the volatility associated with common shares [16][17] Market Sentiment - AGNC's current price reflects a large premium over its tangible book value, which is unusual and may indicate potential future declines in share price and dividends [18] - ARMOUR Residential and Orchid Island Capital are trading close to their book values, which is considered expensive given their historical performance and frequent losses [19]

Core Insights - Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) estimates a net loss of 29 cents per share for Q2 2025, primarily due to losses on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and derivative instruments [1][9] - The estimated book value per share is $7.21, reflecting a 15.9% year-over-year decline, with a negative total return on equity of 4.7% as of June 30, 2025 [2][9] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Orchid's RMBS portfolio value is estimated at $6.9 million, indicating a challenging quarter due to net realized and unrealized losses [3][9] - Over the past three months, ORC shares have increased by 18.6%, outperforming the industry growth of 14% [7] Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment focuses on leveraged investments in Agency RMBS, with a portfolio value of $70.5 billion as of March 31, 2025, and a tangible net book value of $8.25 per share [5] - Annaly Capital Management primarily invests in Agency mortgage-backed securities, holding $75 billion in Agency MBS as of March 31, 2025, with a book value per share of $19.02 [6] Valuation Metrics - Orchid trades at a forward price-to-tangible (P/TB) ratio of 1.03X, which is above the industry average of 1X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 suggests significant year-over-year increases of 394.4% and 24.5%, respectively [13]

Group 1 - Bimini Capital Management, Inc. will release its second quarter 2025 results on July 31, 2025, after market close [1] - An earnings conference call is scheduled for August 1, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET, with registration available online [2] - Bimini Capital primarily invests in residential mortgage-related securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae [3] Group 2 - Bimini Advisors Holdings, LLC serves as the external manager for Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a publicly-traded REIT [4] - Bimini Advisors earns management fees and expense reimbursements for managing Orchid's investment portfolio [4] - Royal Palm Capital, LLC, another subsidiary, is managed with a similar investment strategy to that of Orchid [5]

VERO BEACH, Fla., April 08, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (NYSE:ORC) ("Orchid" or the "Company"), a real estate investment trust ("REIT"), today announced that it will release results for the first quarter of 2025 following the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Earnings Conference Call Details An earnings conference call and live audio webcast will be hosted Friday, April 25, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET. Participants can register and receive dial-in ...

VERO BEACH, Fla., April 08, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (NYSE:ORC) ("Orchid” or the "Company"), a real estate investment trust ("REIT"), today announced that it will release results for the first quarter of 2025 following the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Earnings Conference Call Details An earnings conference call and live audio webcast will be hosted Friday, April 25, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET. Participants can register and receive dial-in ...