Summary of Key Points from China Automobiles 2026 Management Outlook Call Series Industry Overview - The call series involved discussions with six OEM companies, two suppliers, and one dealer in the Chinese automobile industry, including SAIC, GAC, Xiaomi Corp., Leapmotor, Great Wall, and Seres [1] - Four key themes emerged regarding the outlook for the Chinese auto industry in 2026: 1. Conservative views on industry volume 2. Forecasts of double-digit volume growth with a focus on overseas expansion 3. An aggressive new model pipeline, particularly in the premium segment 4. Potential pricing and margin pressures across the auto value chain [2] Company-Specific Insights Management Outlook 1. **Conservative Volume Expectations**: Management teams expect a year-over-year growth of -5% to +1% for domestic passenger vehicle retail sales in 2026, with a projected 10% increase in NEV retail sales. The total amount of auto trade-in subsidies is expected to decrease to approximately Rmb250 billion in 2026 from Rmb300 billion in 2025 [5][16] 2. **OEM Volume Growth Forecasts**: All six OEMs anticipate volume growth ranging from 11% to 68% in 2026, with a strong emphasis on overseas expansion, targeting growth rates of 19% to 108% in international markets [5][7] 3. **New Model Pipeline**: A total of 119 new models are expected to be launched in 2026, with the premium segment becoming increasingly competitive. The breakdown includes 46 models in the mass market, 37 in the mid-to-high end, and 36 in the premium market [8] Company-Specific Projections - **SAIC**: Targets over 5 million units in deliveries, implying an 11% year-over-year growth, with a focus on launching more than 10 new models overseas [15][17] - **GAC**: Expects a 20% growth in volume, driven by its own brands and exports, with plans to launch 9 new models domestically and 8 overseas [20] - **Xiaomi**: Aims for 550,000 units in deliveries, a 34% increase from 2025, supported by new model launches and increased manufacturing capacity [19][21] - **Leapmotor**: Targets 1 million units in 2026, with a focus on NEV penetration reaching 60% [22] - **Great Wall**: Projects 1.8 million units in deliveries, a 50% increase from 2025, with limited price competition expected overseas [8] Market Dynamics - **Domestic Market Pressures**: The domestic market is expected to face contraction in profit pools, with a forecast of 23 million passenger vehicle retail sales (-2% year-over-year) and 14 million NEV retail sales (+11% year-over-year) [7] - **Export Opportunities**: The export market is seen as a bright spot, with an estimated 7.4 million passenger vehicle exports (+10% year-over-year), primarily driven by NEV exports [7] - **Pricing and Margin Pressures**: OEMs are facing gross profit margin pressures due to factors such as purchase tax refunds and the launch of lower-priced models. Suppliers expect to maintain stable margins despite these pressures [8] Additional Insights - **Technological Developments**: GAC is collaborating with CATL to develop solid-state battery technology, with expectations for mass production by 2027-28 [20] - **Market Competition**: The premium segment is becoming more crowded, with significant competition expected in the Rmb250k-300k price range [8] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the China Automobiles 2026 Management Outlook Call Series, highlighting the cautious yet ambitious outlook of various companies within the industry.

Summary of China Auto/EV Global Markets Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China auto market**, particularly the **electric vehicle (EV)** segment, highlighting recent trends in wholesales and retails, as well as market dynamics affecting demand and competition. Key Points Market Performance - **Wholesales**: The China auto market delivered **3.0 million** wholesales unit shipments in October 2025, representing a **7.5% year-on-year (y-y)** increase and a **3.6% month-on-month (m-m)** increase [1][6] - **Retails**: Retail unit shipments were **2.2 million units**, showing a **0.9% y-y** decline and a **0.1% m-m** decline [1][6] - **EV Sales**: Monthly retail sales for passenger vehicle (PV) EVs reached **1.28 million units**, marking a **7.0% y-y** increase but a **1.4% m-m** decrease [1][6] Demand Trends - The report indicates that local demand in the China auto market has started to cool down, attributed to the **National Holiday week** and tightening policy trends initiated from **late September 2025** [1][6] - The **EV penetration rate** remains stable at **56.5%**, consistent with the previous month [1][6] Future Outlook - The demand situation for **Q1 2026** is expected to be challenging, particularly due to the upcoming **50% cut to EV purchase tax exemption** and the effects of the national trading-in/scrapping policy [1][8] - OEMs are anticipated to push for sales targets in the last two months of 2025, leading to solid deliveries despite a potentially lackluster orders situation [1][2] Competitive Landscape - Market share winners identified include **Geely**, **Leapmotor**, and **Huawei-related brands** in the mass market, while **Xiaomi** is noted in the premium segment [2] - New entrants like **NIO** and **XPENG** are expected to continue gaining traction with upcoming model launches [2][19] Export Performance - The China auto industry exported **571,000 units** of PVs in October 2025, reflecting a **22.7% y-y** increase and a **2.0% m-m** increase [3][31] - Cumulative exports for the first ten months of 2025 reached **4.7 million units**, a **15.7% y-y** increase, with EV exports showing a significant **87% y-y** growth [3][31] Individual Company Performance - **BYD**: Retail sales dropped to **296,000 units** in October 2025, a **31.4% y-y** decline, with a market share decrease to **23.1%** [15] - **Geely**: Achieved **164,000 unit** EV retail sales (+54.7% y-y) with an improved market share of **12.8%** [16] - **NIO**: Recorded **40,000 unit** retail sales (+90.5% y-y), with expectations for improved quarterly financials [18] - **XPENG**: Delivered **37,000 unit** retail sales (+82.2% y-y), with a strong pipeline for future models [19] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks including intensified market competition, slower-than-expected overseas expansion, and the impact of geopolitical uncertainties on global expansion efforts for Chinese OEMs [4][8] Conclusion - The China auto market is experiencing a cooling demand phase, with significant competition among OEMs. While some companies are gaining market share, the overall outlook remains cautious due to policy changes and market dynamics. The export performance of EVs is a positive sign amidst local market challenges [1][4][8]

Market Position & Growth - Series, a Chinese EV upstart, rapidly rose to the top of China's luxury EV segment [1] - Series' flagship M9 SUV was the number one seller in the luxury segment in China last year, surpassing Mercedes and BMW [2] - Series remains profitable and avoids price wars, selling its itel M9 for $70,000 [5] Production & Technology - Series built a million square meter Chongqing plant in just one year [1] - The factory utilizes over 3,000 robots to produce a car every 30 seconds [6] - Series cars feature Harmony OS, developed in partnership with Huawei [1] Competitive Advantages - Series benefits from its partnership with Huawei, especially in the Chinese market [5][6] - Series focuses on R&D in safety, automation, and connectivity, leveraging China's supply chains and homegrown tech [3] - Series' vehicles offer advanced features like automated parking [4] Future Trends & Challenges - The Chinese EV market is highly competitive, posing challenges for foreign players [3] - The industry anticipates advancements in assisted driving and potentially humanoid assistants [7][8] - Authorities are cautious about full autonomy until safety is guaranteed [7]

Company Overview - Seres Group's shares fell 3.7% to HK$126.60 on debut in Hong Kong, after an initial drop of 10.3% [2] - The company raised HK$14.3 billion (US$1.8 billion) from the IPO, with the IPO price set at HK$131.50, representing a 22% discount to its Shanghai-listed shares [2] - Founded in 1986, Seres transitioned from manufacturing springs and shock absorbers to new-energy vehicles in 2016, becoming one of the few profitable Chinese EV makers with a net income of 5.9 billion yuan (US$827.4 million) last year [6] IPO Details - The IPO was oversubscribed 132 times, with 10.86 million shares allocated to retail investors, accounting for about 10% of the total offering [3] - The international placement was 8.61 times oversubscribed, with 97.76 million shares allocated to institutional investors, making up the remaining 90% of the IPO [4] Market Performance - Seres' Aito M9 has become the bestselling luxury vehicle in China, surpassing established brands like BMW and Mercedes-Benz [8] - The company's Shanghai-listed shares have surged nearly 1,600% over the past five years since its listing in 2016 [7] Strategic Partnerships - Seres' partnership with Huawei Technologies has been crucial for its growth, providing intelligent cockpit systems and driving-assistance capabilities [8] - Cornerstone investors in the IPO include Schroders, Mirae Asset Securities, Huatai Capital Investment, and Sanhua Intelligent Controls [5]

For years, Seres leaned on Huawei to transform an assembler of cheap minivans into the maker of the country’s top-selling luxury vehicle. Now, it’s ready to come into its own. https://t.co/csAk0eLvCh ...

Seres, maker of China’s best-selling luxury vehicle, will start trading in Hong Kong on Wednesday after raising $1.8 billion during its public offering and adding to the city’s banner year for new listings https://t.co/WeSvZFSoqc ...

Electric-vehicle maker Seres raised HK$14.3 billion ($1.8 billion) after pricing its Hong Kong listing at the upper limit it had set and exercising an option to increase its deal size https://t.co/5pVqIW1u9T ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lear Corporation reported revenue of $5.7 billion for Q3 2025, a 2% increase from Q3 2024 [4] - Core operating earnings were $241 million, with an operating margin of 4.2% [4] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased to $2.79 from $2.89 year-over-year [20] - Operating cash flow reached $444 million, significantly up from $183 million in the previous year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Seating segment, sales increased by 3% to $4.2 billion, with adjusted earnings flat at $261 million [20][21] - E-Systems segment sales decreased by 3% to $1.4 billion, with adjusted earnings down to $60 million [22] - The Jaguar Land Rover disruption negatively impacted revenue by $111 million and core operating earnings by $31 million [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global vehicle production increased by 4%, with North America up 5%, Europe up 1%, and China up 10% [17] - The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and remained flat against the RMB [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Lear's strategic priorities include extending leadership in seating, expanding margins in E-Systems, and supporting sustainable value creation through disciplined capital allocation [5] - The company is focused on automation and digital tools to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [15][16] - Lear is well-positioned to benefit from the onshoring trend, which is expected to drive incremental revenue and margin expansion [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future growth opportunities, particularly in light of the non-recurrence of the Jaguar Land Rover disruption and a strong backlog [30] - The Lear Fellowship program with Palantir is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [31] - Management anticipates a healthy backlog for 2026 and 2027, estimating it to be approximately $1.2 billion [37] Other Important Information - Lear's strong cash flow allowed for $100 million in share repurchases during the quarter [29] - The company has a solid balance sheet with no near-term debt maturities and $3 billion in available liquidity [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of supply chain issues on guidance - Management indicated cautious production volume assumptions for Q4 due to potential risks from Novelis and JLR's production restart [32][34] Question: Backlog and production plans for 2026 - Management confirmed a backlog of approximately $1.2 billion for 2026 and 2027, with positive feedback from customers on automation and digital efforts [36][37] Question: Margin implications of automated manufacturing in the U.S. - Management stated that onshoring opportunities are expected to yield operating margins similar to existing North American seat business, aided by automation [50]

Financial Performance - Q3 2025 - Sales reached $5.7 billion, a slight increase from $5.6 billion in Q3 2024[11] - Core operating earnings were $241 million, down from $257 million in Q3 2024[11] - Adjusted earnings per share decreased to $2.79 from $2.89 year-over-year[11] - Operating cash flow significantly increased to $444 million compared to $183 million in the same quarter last year[11] Segment Performance - Seating sales were $4.25 billion with adjusted earnings of $261 million, resulting in a 6.14% margin[32] - E-Systems sales were $1.43 billion with adjusted earnings of $60 million, resulting in a 4.20% margin[36] Full Year 2025 Outlook - Net sales are projected to be between $22.85 billion and $23.15 billion[41] - Core operating earnings are expected to be between $995 million and $1.055 billion[41] - The company anticipates generating free cash flow between $475 million and $525 million[41] Market and Currency - Global vehicle production increased by 1% year-over-year, with China showing the strongest growth at 10%[25] - The Euro appreciated against the dollar, increasing 6% from $1.10/€ to $1.17/€[26]

Seres started taking investor orders for a Hong Kong listing that may raise as much as HK$13.2 billion ($1.7 billion) https://t.co/IvtcAc069V ...