Equity Research 21 August 2025 U.S. Multi-Industry Investor topics of discussion, positioning, catalysts, question lists The ingredients appear in place for a reversion of sector stock leadership, per our REVERT framework For our detailed thoughts on the sector following Q2 earnings, please see our report. - There are very few company-hosted investor events in Q3 - SWK's Innovation Center Tour on Sept 16 is one. - Companies with a fiscal year-end September (EMR, JCI, ROK) may comment on broad- brush financi ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the macroeconomic outlook for Asia, particularly in relation to exports and capital expenditure trends in the region, as presented by Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist, Chetan Ahya [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Trends**: Asia has experienced two distinct rounds of export front-loading to the US, with nominal goods exports showing signs of consolidation from earlier strength [4][5]. - **Impact of AI and Tariffs**: Asia's tech exports are benefiting from a sustained rise in global AI spending and tariff exemptions, although a slowdown in other areas of global demand is expected to weigh on overall exports [7]. - **Tariff Burden**: Asian exporters are currently not bearing the bulk of the tariff burden, as evidenced by aggregate US import prices from Asia. However, ASEAN exporters have seen sharper price increases compared to their Chinese counterparts, who have offered modest discounts [10]. - **Foreign Exchange Burden**: While Asian exporters are not heavily impacted by tariffs, they are facing some foreign exchange (FX) burdens, as they have not been able to fully offset local currency price drags with USD export price increases [14][16]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: There is no clear evidence of a pickup in Asia's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the US post "Liberation Day," and capital expenditure momentum in Asia has plateaued [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **China's Economic Strategy**: To meet growth targets and address demand shortfalls, China has increased investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, but broad-based reflation will require a recovery in demand [22]. - **India's Economic Discrepancy**: There is a persistent gap between lower corporate revenue growth and higher nominal GDP growth in India, which has lasted for nine consecutive quarters [24]. - **Japan's Monetary Policy**: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain a dovish stance due to subdued demand-side inflationary pressures, with domestic demand recovery still in its early stages [28]. Data Highlights - **US Real Capex**: The data shows fluctuations in US real capital expenditure, with private non-residential IT capex experiencing a decline of 1.0% year-over-year as of June 2025 [8]. - **Export Price Changes**: The Asia dollar index appreciated by 4.2%, while the Asia USD export price saw a change of 1.8% from February 2025 to June 2025 [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Asian economy, particularly in relation to exports and capital expenditure trends.

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is positioned as a long-term investment opportunity due to its significant market presence and upcoming expansion in the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing sector, driven by new trade tariffs [2][3][5]. Company Overview - TSM has a current stock price of $241.98, with a 52-week range of $134.25 to $248.28 and a dividend yield of 1.02% [2]. - The company has a market value of approximately $1 trillion and a P/E ratio of 27.59, which is lower than the computer sector's average of 50.3 [3][10]. Investment Thesis - The stock is recommended for long-term accumulation, with a price target of $258.33, indicating a potential upside of 6.76% from the current price [11]. - The anticipated increase in tariffs on semiconductors, potentially reaching 200% by 2027, provides a timeline for TSM to enhance its manufacturing capacity in the U.S. [5][12]. Market Position and Performance - TSM is a dominant player in the semiconductor industry, supplying major companies like NVIDIA and Apple [6][7]. - Recent quarterly earnings reported an EPS of $2.47, surpassing the Wall Street consensus of $2.13, suggesting that analysts may be undervaluing the company [13]. Analyst Sentiment - Despite some institutional investors reducing their positions, this is not necessarily a bearish signal but rather a portfolio management strategy [8][9]. - TSM is currently rated as a "Buy" among analysts, although some top-rated analysts have identified other stocks as better buys [15][16].

Today, the race for rare earths in high demand for things like drones and EVs, but a market all but cornered by the Chinese. Not if one American company gets its way. Vulcan Elements announcing a $65 million fund raise today, led by Altimitter's Brad Gersonner. John Masslin is that company's CEO and co-founder. He does join us now. We're so pleased to have you. Welcome and congratulations on this raise. Thanks for having me. Led by Alimter, as I said, how'd that relationship come to be? We've had conversati ...

Tariff Impact on D'Addario - D'Addario estimates incremental tariffs will reach $22 million by year-end, tripling the $700 thousand paid last year [1] - Retaliatory tariffs imposed by China threaten D'Addario's Chinese business, which generates $5 million to $10 million annually [15] Company Operations and Strategy - D'Addario is a global company with approximately 1100 employees, about 800 based in Farmingdale, New York, and roughly $240 million in annual revenue [4] - The company distributes its products in over 130 countries, with its own distribution companies controlling about 50% of its international business [7] - D'Addario has been onshoring production, including starting its own injection molding factory in New York before the pandemic, to mitigate tariffs and supply chain disruptions [8] - D'Addario believes it can cut its tariff bill in half by onshoring additional products and parts [10] - Approximately 50% of D'Addario's product is sold in the U S, and 50% is sold internationally [7] - About 5% of D'Addario's business represents finished goods sourced from overseas, predominantly from China [5] - D'Addario sources raw materials from its own plantations in the South of France and Argentina for its reed business [5] Industry Perspective - Allianz Trade surveyed 4500 companies across China, the EU, the UK, and the U S, finding that U S firms are absorbing tariff costs into their margins [18][19] - Allianz Trade anticipates that U S retailers and wholesalers will start passing on tariff costs to consumers as inventories run low [19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for the quarter were $983 million, representing a 2% increase in local currency and a 4% increase on a U.S. dollar reported basis [11] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $10.9, a 5% increase over the prior year [15] - Gross margin was 59%, a decrease of 70 basis points due to tariff costs and lower volume [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Laboratory sales increased by 1%, while industrial sales increased by 4%, with core industrial up 2% and product inspection up 8% [12] - Food retail sales were flat for the quarter [28] - Service business grew by 4% in the quarter and 5% year-to-date [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Local currency sales increased by 3% in The Americas, were flat in Europe, and increased by 3% in Asia Rest of the World [12] - Local currency sales in China declined by 2% during the quarter [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging its innovative product portfolio and strategic programs to navigate uncertain market conditions [8] - There is an emphasis on capitalizing on onshoring investments and the demand for automation and productivity solutions [27][32] - The company anticipates growth opportunities from the replacement cycle of aging equipment as market conditions stabilize [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in mitigating tariff impacts and expects to fully offset these costs next year [10][20] - The outlook for the second half of the year remains cautious, with expectations of stable demand in China and mixed conditions in the laboratory sector [44] - Management noted that geopolitical tensions and trade disputes continue to create uncertainty in the market [20] Other Important Information - The company expects local currency sales to grow approximately 3% to 4% for the full year 2025 [21] - Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 is in the range of $10.55 to $10.75, reflecting a growth rate of 3% to 5% [22] - The effective tax rate is expected to remain at 19% for 2025 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Swiss tariffs on EPS guidance - Management indicated that the gross headwind from the Swiss tariffs is approximately $0.40, and they are working on mitigation actions for next year [36][38] Question: Demand visibility in China - Management noted that while there is some stabilization, underlying market conditions remain soft, and they have not factored in potential stimulus [40][45] Question: Strength in product inspection - Management highlighted that new product innovations have led to market share gains and they expect continued growth in this segment [48][51] Question: Service business timing issues - Management explained that timing issues in Q2 were project-related, but they remain optimistic about growth in the second half of the year [75][78] Question: Replacement cycle dynamics - Management discussed pent-up demand for equipment replacement and indicated that while there may not be a snapback, there will be an acceleration as market confidence returns [99][101]

Mettler-Toledo International (MTD) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 01, 2025 08:30 AM ET Speaker0Good morning, and thank you for standing by. My name is Carly, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mettler Toledo Second Quarter twenty twenty five Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over ...

Core Viewpoint - Desktop Metal, a subsidiary of Nano Dimension, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection due to significant liabilities and liquidity issues stemming from prior management decisions [1][2]. Company Summary - Nano Dimension is a leader in Digital Manufacturing solutions, focusing on advanced technologies for industries such as defense, aerospace, automotive, electronics, and medical devices [3]. - The company aims to leverage strong trends in onshoring, national security, and product customization to enhance its market position [3]. Strategic Actions - The decision to file for bankruptcy was made by Desktop Metal's independent Board of Directors after exploring strategic alternatives to address financial challenges [2]. - Nano Dimension's CEO emphasized the importance of maintaining financial strength to pursue strategic opportunities effectively [3].

Onshoring and Economic Impact - Onshoring to America, especially high value-added tech manufacturing like chips, has a large fiscal and economic impact without overly stressing the labor force [2] - A major investment deal between a leading American company and a foreign technology company aims to onshore industry in the US [1] - The success of major investments by companies struggling in their respective fields remains to be seen in terms of long-term impact [3][4] Semiconductor Industry and Competition - TSMC has an overall technical lead in the semiconductor space, having built an extraordinary business that has taken out competitors like Intel and Samsung [4][5] - Increased competition is coming for both TSMC and Nvidia [5] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing tremendous growth [5] Market and Investment Trends - The US prime book is heavily weighted and overexposed to the semiconductor space and semiconductor equipment [6] - Hedge funds have dialed back exposure to the semiconductor space ahead of earnings [6] - Extraordinary retail participation, a dramatic increase in margin utilization, and a dramatic decline in short interest have been observed [7] - Market conditions are extraordinarily difficult for hedge funds, requiring near-perfect earnings to live up to the hype [9] - Hedge funds have been underexposed to software services [9] - Hedge funds are expected to rotate towards sectors that are performing well, such as cyclicals versus defensives [10]

Our next guest will weigh in on the latest uh with US tariffs, the budget bill, uh and more. Joining us now, House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith. Uh Mr.. Chairman, it's good to see you. Thanks for uh for joining us as always. Always good to be with you, Joe.We we also said we'd talk about the the latest from from Nvidia and and um in the White House and the recent meeting, I guess, with uh with Jensen Wong. I want to start though, uh Mr. . Chairman, we just had Mike Wilson on, pretty well thought of u ...